1. International Internet Bandwidth and Pricing Trends in Africa
Patrick Christian
August 22, 2017

2. Inter-Regional Internet Bandwidth, 2017
The Global Picture
Inter-Regional Internet Bandwidth, 2017
2013 Latam-US became highest capacity regional route over Europe-US (Latam transit to US/content) and private networks dampening trans-atl growth.
Top routes in terms of capacity – US-Europe, (number one still london-ny but now Latam-US next 2 Miami-Rio & Sao Paolo
Latam-US big bcs only inter regional route
Latam similar to Africa – 80% of international capacity is connected to US
Intra in Latam grew 70% to 18% of capacity

3. Global Growth Stable International Internet Bandwidth Global Growth
Annual growth used to be low 40s (doubling every 2 years) last 4 years in low 30s.
Due to: Private networks – CDNs and cloud service providers, changing traffic patterns, localizing traffic.
Trans-atlantic & trans-pacific used capacity now majority private network, dampening intl internet growth

4. Content Provider Capacity Growing
Used International Capacity by Source
Internet capacity has 5 year CAGR at 31%
Content provider capacity 76%
Total international capacity at 45%

5. Content Provider Traffic
Share of Used Bandwidth by Category for Major Routes, YE 2016
Main East-West routes 50-75% content provider traffic (US-Europe-Asia)
North-South routes 5-20% content provider traffic (US-Latam, Eur-Africa)
Trans-Atlantic majority content 70%
Trans-Pacific over 50%
Euro-Africa almost 10%

6. 10G Wave Prices Dropping Fast
Median 10 Gbps Wavelength Price Trends on Major Intl Routes
Each line represents the median monthly lease price for an unprotected 10 Gbps wavelength on the listed route. Prices are in USD and exclude local access and installation fees.

7. IP Transit Prices Continue to Drop
Median 10 GigE IP Transit Prices in Major Global Cities
Each column represents the weighted median monthly price per Mbps in the listed city. The line represents the decline of the median price calculated as a three year compound annual growth rate. Prices are in USD and exclude local access and installation fees. 10 Gigabit Ethernet (10 GigE) = 10,000 Mbps.
While 10 GigE is the predominant unit of wholesale IP transit transactions in many regions, high capacity sales have just started to emerge in Africa. Sales are limited to major markets such as South Africa and Kenya, where median 10 GigE port prices were $24 per Mbps in Q now $9 with market price as low as $5

8. Global IP Transit &Wave Prices
Weighted Median 10 Gbps IP Transit & Wavelength Q2 2017
Notes: Each line represents the weighted median monthly lease price for an unprotected 10 Gbps wavelength on an individual route. Each circle represents the weighted median monthly price per Mbps for a 10 GigE IP transit port in the listed city. Routes and cities are shaded corresponding to price, from least expensive in blue to most expensive in red. Prices are in USD and exclude local access and installation fees. 10 Gbps & 10 GigE = 10,000 Mbps.

9. Submarine Capacity

10. 2017
Carlsbad, CA | Washington, DC | Exeter, UK | Singapore | |

11. Proposed Before 2009 only 16 countries with sub cable landings
YE countries
Guinea Bissau, Eritrea, Western Sahara only countries w/o landings, plans for GB for next year
Carlsbad, CA | Washington, DC | Exeter, UK | Singapore | |

12. Africa is the Fastest Growing Region
International Internet Bandwidth Growth by Region,

13. Capacity Growth in Africa
International Internet Bandwidth Growth - Africa
Annual Growth 53% almost 6Tbps

14. Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa
Int’l Internet Bandwidth Growth – Sub-Saharan Africa
Annual Growth 69%

15. Connected to Europe
Major International Internet Routes in Africa, 2017
Only intra-African above 50Gbps SA – Zimbabwe 2016
2017 – COUNTRY-TO-COUNTRY routes (aggregate the city-to-city routes)

16. Europe Hub Not Just for Africa
Regional Capacity Connected to the U.S. & Canada,
North Africa continues to climb, 98% to Europe

17. Intra-Africa Connectivity Growth
Share of Africa Int’l Internet Bandwidth by Region,
Intra-Africa – 9% to 15%
Africa CAGR 106%??
Europe 46%

18. Intra-African Routes
Major International Internet Routes within Africa, 2017
>1Gbps
New growing hub CdI, Djibouti
Algeria & Tunisia all to Europe

19. Transit and Transport Pricing

20. Transport Prices STM-4
Median STM-4 Monthly Lease Prices in Africa, Q2 2017

21. Median Prices 10 Gbps Waves
Johannesburg-London Q – Q2 2017

22. Regional Transit Prices
Median STM-1 IP Transit Prices in Africa, Q2 2017

23. Data Centers

24. Carriers Exchanging Traffic
Colocation Floor Space
Colo floor space proxy for location of exchanged traffic (check legend)
Carlsbad, CA | Washington, DC | Exeter, UK | Singapore | |

25. Linking Content and Applications
Major Content Provider Data Center Locations, 2017
Carlsbad, CA | Washington, DC | Exeter, UK | Singapore | |

26. Cloud Data Centers & Direct Connects
Will update to reflect 2018 with Azure in S Africa

27. Outlook - Some Numbers
44% vs 30% - Africa vs Global - Int’l Internet bw
417m to 541m - 3G subs –
37m to 201m LTE subs –
51% vs 25% - peering vs transit growth
Africa vs Global intl internet bw growth year? CAGR
3G – 34% to 40% pop penetration 2017 vs 2021
LTE – 3% to 16% pop pen 2017 vs 2021
Peering vs Transit cagr Africa CAGR

28. Merci! Patrick Christian pchristian@telegeography.com