1. TRACKING SOUTH AFRICA’S NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTIONS
PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 13 JUNE 2017

2. IMPLICATIONS OF THE PARIS AGREEMENT FOR SA
The Paris Agreement requires South Africa to:
submit a Nationally Determined Contribution every five years. We submitted an INDC to the UNFCCC in 2015, (now NDC following ratification) which applies to 2025 and 2030 (adaptation, mitigation and means of implementation).
develop and scale-up policies and measures (PAMs) to implement our NDCs, and to report on progress with these PAMs
account for our NDC (the extent to which we have met the goals of our NDC), including any use of international market mechanisms;
submit biennial reports to the UNFCCC on national circumstances, emissions, adaptation and other facets of climate change;
submit regular communications on adaptation
South Africa will be encouraged to develop a long-term low-carbon development strategy.

3. Governance framework for adaptation and transitioning to climate resilience
Develop a national adaptation strategy and begin operationalization;
Consideration of climate change into national, sub-national and sector policy framework
Develop an early warning, vulnerability and adaptation monitoring system for key climate vulnerable sectors and geographic areas; (2020 to 2030)
Development of a vulnerability assessment and adaptation needs framework by 2020;
Communication of past investments in adaptation for education and awareness as well as for international recognition;
Build the necessary institutional capacity for climate change response planning and implementation (2020 to 2030);

4. Governance framework for adaptation and transitioning to climate resilience (CONT)
National Adaptation Strategy is currently being developed;
The National Framework on Climate Service is being finalized;
Undertook risk and vulnerability assessment and developed provincial response plans for 9 provinces;
Roll-out capacity support programme to municipalities through lets respond toolkit;
Sector departments developed the sector adaptation plans and facilitate integration into the planning frameworks;

5. Governance framework for reducing GHG emissions
Greenhouse gas emissions to peak (2025), plateau ( ) and decline (2035): expressed as trajectory range of 398 to 614 Mt CO2 -eq
Pre-2020 implementation provides the foundation for meeting the post 2020 commitments. The governance framework includes:
Phase 1 of the emission reduction system (2016 – 2020), including:
Mitigation potential analysis
Carbon budgets
Mitigation plans
GHG reporting system
Phase 2 of the emission reduction system: 2021 – 2025.

6. PHASE 2 Mitigation Potential Analysis (2018)
Set carbon budget and SETs
(2018)
Call for Mitgation plans (2018/19)
Annual reporting
(2021 – 25)
Assess compliance (end of the cycle – 2026)

7. Tracking progress in South Africa’s transition to a lower carbon and climate resilient economy and society, and towards meeting the commitments under the Paris Agreement
South Africa has a national climate change response Monitoring & Evaluation system that has the following main components:
Tool to provide complete, accurate and up to date information on climate change
Tool for reporting of GHG emissions by the industry
Tool for compilation of the GHG inventory
MRV guidelines for reporting emission reductions from mitigation programmes
GHG improvement programme
Tool for tracking the Desired Adaptation Outcomes

8. REPORTING PROGRESS ON IMPLEMENTATION AND TRANSITIONING
South Africa has taken major steps to report its progress on climate change activities.
So far, we have compiled and produced 5 GHG inventory reports.
Currently, we are developing the GHG inventory report.
We are finalizing SA’s 2nd BUR for submission in 2017.
We are finalizing SA’s 3rd National Communication
We are finalizing SA’s 2nd Climate Change Annual Report

9. Tracking the Transition to a Lower Carbon Economy
Energy sector remains the single largest contributor to the country’s total GHG emissions (81.7% in 2012)
Renewable energy contribution to the national energy mix increased significantly from 2000 to 2012, however, the overall carbon intensity of the national energy system remained fairly constant
Tracking the Transition to a Lower Carbon Economy

10. Tracking the Transition to a Lower Carbon Economy
Minor decoupling of emissions from economic growth over the 2000 to 2012 period
Significant mitigation between 2000 & emissions reductions estimated at Mt CO2e - energy efficiency measures responsible for 82% to 85% or reductions

11. Tracking the Transition to a Lower Carbon Economy
5th National GHG Inventory ( ):
GHG emissions decreased slightly from 531 Mt CO2e in 2010 to Mt CO2e in 2012
Current national emissions profile falls well within the PPD target trajectory range

12. The Figure shows South Africa’s GHG inventory trajectory compared to the PPD trajectory and the mitigation NDC target of the country. By 2012 an implied carbon budget of 96 MtCO2e between the GHG inventory levels and the upper limit of the PPD and NDC targets can be observed from the figure. This means that between 2012 and 2025 the country’s emissions should not grow faster than 7.4 MtCO2e per year on average if the PPD and NDC targets for 2025 are to be achieved. With an estimated 2016 economic growth of 0.4% year-on-year and a projected 2017 economic growth of no more than 1.5% year-on-year, an average emissions growth rate of 7.4 MtCO2e per year does not seem likely (Quantec 2017).
The 2012 GHG inventory report in comparison with the GHG emission trajectory range (PPD range)

13. APPROACH TO TRACKING ADAPTATION EFFORTS
Desired Adaptation Outcomes (DAOs) have been developed
This is a tool for monitoring and evaluating South Africa’s transition to a climate resilient society and economy
High level indicators have been proposed under each DAO
Consultations with key stakeholders are underway to facilitate buy in and ownership
Clearly defined synergies exist between the DAOs and:
Strategic priorities set out in the National Adaptation Strategy
NDC adaptation goals
SDGs climate action targets and indicators
UNCCD strategic objectives, expected impacts and indicators

14. CLIMATE CHANGE ANNUAL REPORT
The first Climate Change Annual Report focused on providing a detailed overview of the work undertaken so far within DEA and also by other role players on climate change.
The Table of contents of 2nd annual report includes:
Implications of the Paris Agreement on South Africa
Determining the effectiveness of adaptation actions
Quantification of the impact of mitigation projects
The recent drought phenomenon in South Africa
Progress in implementing the Flagship Programmes

15. NATIONAL ACTION

16. Strategic GHG emission reduction programmes
Sector
Strategic Mitigation Programme
Generic Description
Energy
National Energy Efficiency Strategy
Quantifiable targets for the major demand sectors, as well supply sector
Integrated Resource Plan
Preferred generation technologies - REI4P
South African Centre for Carbon Capture and Storage
Innovative clean technological applications that address climate change
Industry
The DTI Incentives Schemes
Drive growth, foreign direct investment and promote competitiveness in the manufacturing sector inline with IPAP & NPIF
Sections 12B, 12I, 12L, 12K and 37B of the Income Tax Act
Provision of financial incentives to promote the use of lower-carbon technologies
Transport
Public Transport Strategy
Focusses on Accelerated Modal Upgrading and Integrated Rapid Public Transport Networks ; NATMAP
Biofuels Industrial Strategy
Aims to create a market for biologically produced fuels for use as blending components in the production of petrol or diesel

17. CLIMATE CHANGE RESPONSE FLAGSHIP PROGRAMMES
Lead Department
Examples of implementation
Water Conservation and Demand Management Programme
Department of Water and Sanitation
A suite of programmes incl
Rainwater harvesting
Water recycling
Agriculture, Food Systems and Food Security Flagship Programme
Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry
Department of Rural Development and Land Reform
Implementation of integrated climate smart agriculture (CSA);
CSA credit lines insurance and risk reduction and management

18. CLIMATE CHANGE RESPONSE FLAGSHIP PROGRAMMES
Lead Department
Examples of implementation
The Waste Management Flagship Programme
Department of Environmental Affairs
Diversion of Solid waste from landfill and alternative waste treatment
Biogas and combined heat/power generation from waste water
Energy Efficiency and Demand Management Flagship Programme
Department of Energy
Department of Public Works
Energy Efficiency in Public Buildings Programme
Public and Private Sector Energy Efficiency Programme
Renewable Energy Flagship Programme
Renewable Energy Independent Power Producers Programme
Public Sector Renewable Energy Programme
Hydrogen and fuel cell technologies
Low Carbon, Climate Resilient Built Environment, Communities and Human Settlements
Department of Human Settlements
Residential greening and certification programme
Public sector greening