1. Responding to Climate Change in ChinaBy
Dr. R.K. Pachauri
Former Chairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
EU – China NGO Twinning Workshop, Changsha
August 20, 2016

2. The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
A clear and up to date view of the current state of scientific knowledge relevant to climate change.
Working group I
The Physical Science Basis
259 authors
39 countries
54,677 comments
2 million gigabytes of numerical data from climate model simulations
Over 9200 scientific publications cited
Working Group II
Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
309 authors
70 countries
50,444 comments
Over 12,000 scientific references cited
Working Group III
Mitigation of Climate Change
235 authors
57 countries
38,315 comments
Close to 1200 scenarios of socioeconomic development analyzed
Close to 10,000 references to literature

3. The IPCC Synthesis Report
Integration of three Working Group Reports of the 5th Assessment,
WGI: The Physical Science Basis
WGII: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
WGIII: Climate Change Mitigation
51 members of the Core Writing Team
18 members of the Extended Writing Team
18 countries
8105 comments
Chaired by the IPCC Chair R.K. Pachauri
Member governments approved the SPM on 1 November 2014 (total membership of IPCC is 195 governments)

4. Key Messages Human influence on the climate system is clear
The more we disrupt our climate, the more we risk severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts
We have the means to limit climate change and build a more prosperous, sustainable future
Source: AR5 WGI SPM, AR5 WGII SPM, AR5 WGIII SPM

5. Humans are changing the climate
It is extremely likely that we are the dominant cause of warming since the mid-20th century
Year
Globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperatures
Source: AR5 WGI SPM

6. Temperatures continue to rise
Each of the past 3 decades has been successively warmer than the preceding decades since 1850
Year
Globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperatures
Source: AR5 WGI SPM

7. Oceans absorb most of the heat
More than 90% of the energy accumulating in the climate system between 1971 and 2010 has accumulated in the ocean
Land temperatures remain at historic highs while ocean temperatures continue to climb
Source: AR5 SYR

8. Source: AR5 SYR SPM

9. Source: AR5 SYR SPM

10. Source: AR5 SYR SPM

11. Agriculture, forests and other land uses
Sources of emissions
Energy production remains the primary driver of GHG emissions
6.4%
24%
21%
14%
35%
Building Sector
Agriculture, forests and other land uses
Transport
Industry
Energy Sector
2010 GHG emissions
Source: AR5 WGIII SPM

12. Some of the changes in extreme weather and climate events observed since about 1950 have been linked to human influence
Source: AR5 WGI SPM

13. Impacts are already underway
Tropics to the poles
On all continents and in the ocean
Affecting rich and poor countries
Source: AR5 WGII SPM

14. Projected climate changes
Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in the climate system
Oceans will continue to warm during the 21st century
Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century
It is very likely that the Arctic sea ice cover will continue to shrink and thin as global mean surface temperature rises
Global glacier volume will further decrease
Source: AR5 WGI SPM

15. Potential Impacts of Climate Change
Increased displacement of people
Food and water shortages
Increased poverty
Coastal flooding
Source: AR5 WGII SPM

16. Climate Change Poses Risk for Food Production
Percentage of yield projections
Source: AR5 SYR SPM

17. Impacts of Climate Change on China
Major increase in temperature, particularly Northern China
Over the period major temperature increase projected
Annual mean soil moisture projected to decrease
Annual run off, i.e. water discharged from major rivers, projected to decrease
Adverse impacts on yields of rice, particularly in Eastern China
Maize yield likely to decrease by 25% by the 2080s
Shanghai likely to face high risk of floods
Adverse impacts on health, such as from dengue fever
Overall adverse impact on water availability

18. Limiting Temperature Increase to 2˚C
Global GHG emissions reduction of % in 2050 compared to 2010
Net zero or negative GHG emissions in 2100
Global emissions to curb within next 5-15 years
Source: AR5 WGIII SPM

19. Mitigation Measures More efficient use of energy
Greater use of low-carbon and no-carbon energy • Many of these technologies exist today
Improved carbon sinks • Reduced deforestation and improved forest management and planting of new forests • Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage
Lifestyle and behavioural changes
Source: AR5 WGIII SPM

20. The window for action is rapidly closing
65% of our carbon budget compatible with a 2°C goal already used
Amount
Remaining:
Total Carbon
Budget:
1000 GtCO2
Amount Used :
2900 GtCO2
1900
GtCO2
Source: AR5 WGI SPM

21. What will Paris achieve?
Will exceed the 2oC target
Does not involve binding commitments
No provision for penalising failure
Ignores the message of urgency in IPCC’s AR5
Upgradation of INDCs only in 2018 and then again in 2023

22. All stakeholders on board
Essential for governments, businesses and research organisations to evaluate compliance with 20C limit
Greatest assurance of 20C limit lies in RCP 2.6 scenario
Hence, essential for global society to constantly evaluate commitments against RCP 2.6 as a pathway
INDCs dependent on level of ambition in different societies
Hence, crucially important to raise the level of ambition worldwide

23. Mitigation opportunities and the role of technology
Ultimate objectives of Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.
Mitigation scenarios reaching about 450 to 500 ppm CO2eq by 2100 show significant co-benefits.
Infrastructure and products with long life could lock societies into rigid technologies.
Substantial cuts in GHG emissions required by mid-century through large-scale changes in energy systems.
Global CO2 emissions from energy supply sector required to decline over the next decades by reductions of 90% or more below 2010 levels between 2040 and 2070.
Behaviour, lifestyle and culture have a considerable influence on energy use and associated emissions, with high mitigation potential in some sectors, in particular when complementing technological and structural change.

24. Mitigation opportunities and the role of technology (contd…)
Decarbonization of electricity generation is a key component of mitigation strategies.
Renewable energy technologies are very attractive options with rapid cost reduction and efficiency improvements
Aggregate economic costs of mitigation vary widely, and would require coordinated pricing of carbon

25. What is the POP Movement?
Addresses the Urgent Need to Share Information and Knowledge Among Youth About Solutions to:
Achieve Sustainable Development Goals
Mitigate Climate Change
Adapt to the Impacts of Climate Change
PROTECT OUR PLANET

26. Why the POP Movement?
Current Lack of Knowledge, Awareness and Inertia to Implement Climate Change Solutions are a Major Gap in Action
The POP Movement Will Create and Serve the Massive Demand for Action That Can Be Implemented in Schools, Colleges and Communities Worldwide
Knowledge About Climate Change Solutions Will Be Provided as Part of the POP Movement
PROTECT OUR PLANET

27. What Does POP Do? The POP Movement:
Mobilizes Young People Globally to Protect Our Planet
Promotes Collective Action, Especially Among Youth to Implement Solutions Needed to Mitigate Climate Change
Recognizes and Reward Youth-Led Actions, Exemplary Initiatives, and Success Stories
PROTECT OUR PLANET

28. POP in 2016

29. International Advisory Board
PROTECT OUR PLANET

30. Global Partnerships
PROTECT OUR PLANET

31. Launch in Mexico POP Launches on Earth Day 2016
Address in the Mexican Parliament
Talk at the Annual Environmental Film Festival at Cuernavaca
PROTECT OUR PLANET

32. Upcoming Dominican Republic Launch
Launch with DREFF in the Dominican Republic – September 2016
PROTECT OUR PLANET

33. POP Festival in New York, 2017
POP Will Host a Festival in New York
Showcase Youth Action to Protect Our Planet
Launch US Partnerships
Support Networking and Cross-Learning
PROTECT OUR PLANET

34. “Speed is irrelevant if you are going in the wrong direction”
- Mahatma Gandhi
If you think in terms of a year, plant a seed; if in terms of ten years, plant trees; if in terms of 100 years, teach the people.
- Confucius