1. Real-time Ocean Reanalyses Intercomparison: Ocean/Climate Monitoring Using Ensemble Ocean Reanalysis Products
Y. Xue1, M. Balmaseda2, Y. Fujii3, G. Vecchi4, G. Vernieres5, O. Alves6, A. Kumar1, T. Lee7, D. Legler8
1 NCEP/NOAA, USA
2 ECMWF
3 JMA, Japan
4 GFDL/NOAA, USA
5 GSFC/NASA, USA
6 BOM, Australia
7 JPL/NASA, USA
8 CPO/NOAA, USA
Climate Reanalysis Task Force, Telecon, June 25, 2014

3. The GODAE (Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment) 1997-2008
GODAE OceanView ( )
Improvement of operational ocean analysis and forecasting systems
Verification of ocean analysis and forecasting products
Utilization of ocean analysis and forecast products
Demonstration of value of sustained ocean observing systems

4. Challenges for GODAE OceanView
Develop coupled ocean-atmosphere data assimilation system for improved weather and climate prediction
Develop ecosystem forecast products for coastal regions
Demonstrate benefits and optimize use of ocean observations
Improve ocean reanalyses for monitoring climate variability and climate change
Improve ocean estimations for environmental monitoring

5. CLIVAR GSOP/GODAE OceanView Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison
(ORA-IP)
Reanalysis production is an on-going activity
New vintages are produced approximately every 5 years
Improved quality controlled observations (XBT corrections, Argo corrections and black lists)
Improved-extended forcing fluxes
Improved models and methods
We need to assess progress, learn lessons, exploit resources and ask questions for future improvement
We need to facilitate the use of reanalyses by other communities
We need to prepare for quasi-real time monitoring of the ocean
Balmaseda et al. 2013, GODAE Symposium

8. TAO/TRITON: Cornerstone of ENSO Observing System
Real time ENSO monitoring and prediction
Ocean initialization for seasonal predictions
Behringer et al. 1998; Alves et al. 2003; Balmaseda et al. 2007; Balmaseda and Anderson 2009; Stockdale et al. 2011; Xue et al (for CFSv2)
ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
Yan Xue Climate Prediction Center

9. Tropical Pacific Observing System (TPOS) 2020 Workshop Aims
(January 27-30, 2014, La Jolla, CA)
Highlight the impacts of the tropical Pacific observing system on information/services of societal relevance – El Nino monitoring and prediction
Evaluate existing and potential requirements for sustained observations of ocean variables in tropical Pacific Ocean – uncertainties in state estimation in tropical Pacific
Evaluate the adequacy of existing observing strategies
Recommend revisions and/or adjustments to enhance resilience, efficiency, integration.
Evaluate logistical requirements for implementation of the recommended Tropical Pacific Observing System.
Assess readiness of new technologies, their potential impact and feasibility in addressing requirements, and/or lowering costs per observation.

10. Operational Ocean Reanalysis
Data Assimilation System
SST
XBT
Moorings
Altimeter
Argo
Operational Atmosphere Reanalysis Surface Fluxes
Ocean Observing System
Ocean Model
Operational Ocean Reanalysis
Ocean Monitoring
Seasonal Forecast Model
CTD
ENSO Prediction

11. Operational Ocean Reanalysesc
Name
Method
& Forcings
In Situ
Data
Altimetry
Resolution
Period
Vintage
Reference
EN3.v2a
Analysis Correction Scheme
No XBT
corrections No
1°x 1°, 42 Levels
Monthly Temp.
1950-present
2009
Ingleby and Huddleston (2007)
NODC
Objective Analysis
No XBT corrections
1°x 1°, 16 Levels,
0 to 700m
Seasonal Temp.
1955-present
2010
Levitus et al. (2009)
GODAS
3D-VAR
NO (Yes in real time)
1°x 1° (1/3° near Eq), 40 Levels
Pentad, Monthly
1979-present
2003
Behringer and Xue (2004
ECMWF
(S3) OI
Yes
1°x1° (1/3° near Eq),
29 Levels
Daily, Monthly
1959-present
2007
Balmaseda et al. (2008)
JMA
50 Levels
Usui et al. (2006)
CFSR
Partially coupled
No (Yes in real time)
1/2°x 1/2° (1/4° near Eq), 40 Levels
Daily, Pentad, Monthly
Xue et al. (2010)
GFDL
EnKF
Fully coupled
XBT corrections
1°x 1° (1/3° near Eq), 50 Levels
1970-present
Zhang et al. (2009)
GMAO
EnOI
Daily, Monthly
1980-present
2011
Rienecker at al. (2011)
MERCATOR
(PSY2G2)
KF-SEEK
2°x 2° (1/2° near Eq), 31 Levels
Drévillon et al. (2008)
BOM
(PEODAS)
No XBT corretions
2°x 1.5 ° (1/2° near Eq.), 25 Levels
Yin et al. (2010)
Xue et al. 2012, J. Climate

12. Real-Time Ocean Renalyses Intercomparison
Extend the CLIVAR-GSOP/GODAE OceanView Ocean Reanalyses Intercomparison Project (ORA-IP) into real time
Assess uncertainties in temperature analysis of tropical Pacific in support of ENSO monitoring and prediction
Explore any connections between gaps in TAO array and spreads among ensemble ORAs
Articulate needs for sustained ocean observing systems in support of TPOS2020
Monitor consistency and discrepancy among ensemble ORAs
Yan Xue Climate Prediction Center

14. The spread is large (>0
The spread is large (>0.6C) between 140W-100W, and 120E-140E, where data distribution is poor.

15. Public Use of Ensemble Ocean Reanalysis Products
NOAA ENSO blog issued on June 6 introduced the real-time multiple ocean reanalysis intercomparison products
ENSO Blog by Watts Up With That also used many plots from real-time multiple ocean reanalysis intercomparison web site

16. Summary
Consistency among ORAs tends to increase with time, particularly in the tropical Pacific, the tropical Indian Ocean and extra-tropical southern oceans, and is partly due to constraints from tropical mooring arrays and Argo floats.
HC300 anomalies (HC300a) associated with ENSO are highly consistent among ORAs; HC300a associated with IOD are moderately consistent; HC300a associated with the Atlantic zonal mode has considerable uncertainties among ORAs, which are comparable to signals.
An ensemble of operational ocean reanalyses provide a tool to monitor signals and uncertainties in upper ocean heat content in real time.

17. Comments and Suggestions?
Thanks!
Comments and Suggestions?