1. WAFLS - Western Asio Flammeus Landscape Study 2016 Program Summary
Robert A. Miller
Neil Paprocki

2. Study Objectives WAFLS (Western Asio Flammeus Landscape Study)
Baseline population assessment of SEOWs
Establish population size estimate
Identify general habitat associations & hot spots
Identify SEOW breeding distribution
Develop long-term monitoring program to evaluate population trends
Emphasize this is a collaboration with IBCP and DWR. IBCP has done a lot of leg-work already and has begun surveying in 2015.
Need to better understand true breeding distribution within Utah

3. 2016
Effort

4. 2016 Results 204 unique volunteers 2,619 volunteer hours
Project WAFLS
2016 Results
204 unique volunteers
2,619 volunteer hours
36,464 volunteer miles travelled
Total volunteer value: $81,016.55
SEOW survey detections: 20 of 98 grids
14 of 50 grids surveyed in Idaho
6 of 48 grids surveyed in Utah
© Mary Pendergast

5. Θ – Probability at Point | Transect Occupied
Θ = 0.10
[ ]
Θ = 0.14
[ ]

6. Ψ – Probability Transect Occupied
Ψ = 0.30
[ ]
Ψ = 0.38
[ ]

7. Multi-scale Abundance Results
2015 Idaho
ĉ = 1.38
2016 Idaho/Utah
ĉ = 1.00

8. Why the Decrease? Statistical Anomaly? Population Change?
16% drop in Idaho
abundance estimate
Why the Decrease?
Statistical Anomaly?
Different Timing?
Different Grids?
Model Fit?
Population Change?
Expected Fluctuation in Breeding Density?
Unexpected Decline?

9. Analysis Methods
Colonization/extinction modeling (MacKenzie et al. 2003)
Included IMBCR grids:
Fit general stratification by WAFLS Program.
Surveyed consistently between 2013 – 2016†.
† 2016 data not fully proofed at this time.

10. IMBCR SEOW Raw Results State Grids 2013 2014 2015 2016†† Colorado 63 22
Montana 24 1 5
Nebraska 16
North Dakota 15
South Dakota 19 4
Wyoming 67 7 3
Idaho† 70 -- 8
Utah† 62
† Not used in analysis at this time.
†† 2016 data not fully proofed at this time.

11. Modelling Results [95% CI]
Colonization:
0.01
[ ]
Colonization:
0.10
[ ]
Colonization:
0.02
[0.008 – 0.06]
2013 Occupancy:
0.005
[ ]
2014 Occupancy
2015 Occupancy
2016 Occupancy
Extinction:
1.00
[ ]
Extinction:
0.49
[ ]
Extinction:
0.85
[0.61 – 0.95]
Detection / Availability: 0.45 [ ]

12. Roadway Mortality Study
Future Directions
Roadway Mortality Study
Rodenticide Survey
WAFLS Expansion
This is a wide-ranging, nomadic species requiring surveys across a broad geographic scale. We have a network of organizations ready to implement a broad survey plan, but large-scale funding is needed.

13. Roadway Mortality – 28 July 2016
Priority Habitat Management Area in Idaho SWAP
36 SEOW, 3 BUOW, 2 LEOW, 1 BNOW Two other mortality hot-spots in UT, one in WY

14. Rodenticide Survey of Roadway Mortalities
Two carcasses analyzed to date:
Conclusions:
Neither showed signs of West Nile Virus as contributing factor
Neither showed signs of Avian Influenza as contributing factor
One had very poor body condition, but had just eaten.
One had great body condition, and had just eaten.
Only one could be tested for rodenticide:
All regular tested toxins: Negative

15. 2017 WALFS Expansion
Western Wyoming

16. 2018 WAFLS Expansion

17. Thank You! Citizen Science Volunteers! Over 200 volunteers!!!!!
Acknowledgements
Thank You! Citizen Science Volunteers! Over 200 volunteers!!!!!

18. BBS Results – Annual change 1966 -2013
Sauer et al

19. Langham et al

20. Problem Statement – Booms et al. 2014
© Bryce Robinson
Problem Statement – Booms et al. 2014
Range-wide, long-term population decline in North America
Convincing evidence, but magnitude unclear
Better survey information necessary
Conservation Priorities
Define and protect important habitats
Improve population monitoring
Determine seasonal movements
Develop management plans & tools
Re-evaluate NatureServe conservation classifications
Classify raptors as migratory birds in Canada
Discuss paper by Booms et al. in brief: Europe, Canada, BBS, & CBC declines. Not well detected on BBS or CBC routes

21. Project WAFLS
Survey Protocol
Point-transect surveys along secondary roads Volunteers select survey route within appropriate habitat inside their 10x10-km grid 8 – 11, 5-min visual point counts – playbacks generally ineffective From 100 – 10 minutes before civil twilight Two surveys per grid conducted from March – May depending on elevation
Mention they also collect some local habitat values, basic weather info, etc..
Larson, M.D., and D.W. Holt Using roadside surveys to detect Short-eared Owls: A comparison of visual and audio techniques. Wildlife Society Bulletin 40:
Miller, R. A., N. Paprocki, M. J. Stuber, C. E. Moulton, and J. D. Carlisle Short-eared Owl (Asio flammeus) surveys in the North American Intermountain West: utilizing citizen scientists to conduct monitoring across a broad geographic scale. Avian Conservation and Ecology 11(1):3.

22. Project WAFLS Methods Survey Selection
10km by 10km grid across region
Stratify by assumed SEOW habitat
LANDFIRE Data - Shrubland, Grassland, Agriculture, and Marshland/Riparian
≥70% of grid must contain stratified habitat
Visually inspected for presence of secondary roads/access issues
Spatially Balanced Draw of survey grids (GRTS)
Multi-scale Occupancy and Abundance Analysis

23. p - Probability of Detection
2015 Idaho
2016 Idaho/Utah
p = 0.50 [ ]
p = 0.54
[ ]

24. Integrated Monitoring in Bird Conservation Regions
Led by Bird Conservancy of the Rockies, with partner organizations such as IBO Multi-species monitoring across 13 western states All ownerships – federal, state, private Spatially-balanced Sampling 9 – 16 points conducted between ½ hour before and 5 hours after local sunrise.

25. Project WAFLS
Conclusions
First multi-state survey of Short-eared Owls utilizing citizen-science volunteers. Initial population estimates for Idaho and Utah. Habitat associations may vary regionally. Overall project design and quality exceeded expectations.
Grassland was generally not an important predictor of habitat, and may indicate presence of invasive grasses across landscape.
Owls may be using alternate habitats that provide them the same veg structure as complex grasslands