1. The Urgency to Re-Invent Nuclear Power in the U.S.
Presentation to
Intermountain Energy Summit by
Robert Schleicher
Chief Engineer
General Atomics
Ashley Finan
Project Director
Advanced Energy Systems
Clean Air Task Force
August 9, 2017

2. Four Questions Do we need nuclear power in the U.S.?
What are the major challenges (technical-economic- political) to current/new nuclear plants in U.S. ?
What policy and institutional changes can help make nuclear power successful?
How can we spur real innovation in nuclear energy?

3. Assertions
Kewaunee Station
U.S. nuclear power is failing economically due to lower cost energy competition and dynamic market conditions
Nuclear plant technology has not changed in 60 years – technological progress has made nat. gas, PV solar, wind and batteries less expensive – This progress will continue
Scientific consensus: dramatic CO2 emission reductions needed to limit severe environmental disruptions from global warming – we must shift to non-fossil power
Current market for new power sources in U.S. is flat but will change in 10 years due to phase out of aging nuclear and coal plants and electric cars
Solar PV Cost
Needed to
meet Paris accord

4. Plant Replacement and Demand Growth Leads to
>50% Shortfall in U.S. Generating Capacity by Mid-Century
Increased demand
55%
Decline of Coal and Nuclear
Existing Capacity
700 GWe of new capacity
Area requirements
1.3 GWe Alta Wind Farm
~300 mi2/GWe-year
1GWe PV plant in Ningxia, China
~50 mi2/GWe-year
Projected U.S. generation in 2050 = 430 GWe-yrs
Required generation area is:
- 130,000 mi2 of wind farms – (New Mexico)
21,500 mi2 of solar plants – (West Virgina)
500 mi2 of nuclear plants
Callaway Nuclear Plant 1.1 GWe
~1.5 mi2/GWe-year
DOE EIA 2014 Annual Energy Outlook

5. Renewables Alone Will Significantly Increase
Power Cost Without New Technology Breakthrough
APWR
CCGT
Wind
Solar PV
With
peaker
With battery storage
Renewables not sufficient without backup for downtime
Renewables with peaker or battery storage is expensive
Battery storage only for diurnal cycle
Current
Current
Current
Current
Current
Current
Data from EIA, Lazard, NREL, Bloomberg
After tax WACC = 6%
Natural gas price = $5/mmBtu
Project costs include installation, O&M, fuel and transmission
$2016
Battery DoD = 80%; efficiency = 92%

6. Yes, We Need Nuclear in the U.S.
Achieve necessary curtailment of CO2 emissions to meet 2oC global rise
Maintain affordable power costs during shift to non- carbon sources
Provide essential grid reliability
Reliance on foreign sources for essential energy (China, Russia, India)
National security (both economic and defense)

7. Challenges to Nuclear Energy in the U.S.
Conventional nuclear power is too expensive
Deregulated power markets are currently not structured for baseload recovery at reasonable cost
Virtually all current U.S. plants in deregulated markets are in the red
Regulatory and construction uncertainties pose unacceptable investment risks
Low natural gas prices will likely continue in foreseeable future
Conclusion:
The U.S. nuclear industry must innovate: technical, financial and regulatory

8. What Is the Ceiling Price-Point for Advanced Nuclear?
Monthly avg. on-peak electricity prices at key trading hubs EIA
($/MWh)
2016 average price was ~$25/MWh
Suggest Parity with natural gas in 2030 ($5/mmBtu)
i.e. < $60/MWh at 8% WACC
Henry Hub natural gas price $/mmBtu

9. Financing Cost and Net Efficiency have
Largest Impact on Value of Nuclear Plant Investment
Tornado chart for ± 10% variation from base
Reduce risk premium
Incremental grid additions
Short, certain schedule
Modular design/construction
Regulatory reform
Increase net efficiency
High temperature
Better conversion cycle
Reduced hotel load
Reduce overnight cost
High reactor power density
Reduce number of components
Modular fabrication?

10. Ashley to continue