1. Effects of War Losses on Mortality Estimates for Italy and France
Dana A. Glei
University of California, Berkeley
Silvia Bruzzone
Istituto Nazionale di Statistica
Graziella Caselli
Università di Roma "La Sapienza"
Acknowledgements: We gratefully acknowledge financial support for this project from the National Institute of Aging (grant RO1 AG11552).

2. Effects of War on Mortality Estimates
Underestimate period mortality during wartime.
Cohort mortality underestimates the true experience for cohorts with heavy war losses.
Civilian population estimates during wartime may be inaccurate if war mortality and mobilization of military troops are not taken into account.
Creates problems in using the intercensal survival method to estimate population size.

3. Vallin’s Work for France
Adjusted wartime death counts and population estimates to represent the “total” population.
Adjusted civilian (or “de facto”) population estimates to account for wartime mobilization/demobilization of troops, migration, and refugees.
Derived estimates of deaths and population size by age and calendar year based on available information and various assumptions.

4. France: Period e0, Total vs. Civilian, Males, 1910-50

5. France: Period e0, Total vs. Civilian, Females, 1910-50

6. French Males aged 20-24: Deaths, Total vs. Civilian, 1910-50

7. French Males aged 20-24: Exposure Estimates, Total vs
French Males aged 20-24: Exposure Estimates, Total vs. Civilian,

8. French Males aged 20-24: Death Rates, Total vs. Civilian, 1910-50

9. French Male 1895 Cohort (turned age 20 in 1915): Death Rates, Total vs
French Male 1895 Cohort (turned age 20 in 1915): Death Rates, Total vs. Civilian
1915
1920

10. Age Pyramid of resident population in ITALY January 1st 1978
Age distribution of the “real” population
Age
WWI effects
decrease and consequent increase of fertility in
Age
WWII effects
decrease and consequent increase of fertility in
decrease and consequent increase of fertility in
Age 0-4
AGE
MALES
FEMALES
WWI effects on these cohorts
Birth year
WWII effects on these cohorts
Age Pyramid of resident population in ITALY January 1st 1978

11. Accounting for Italian War Mortality, World War I
Military-reported deaths during total 651K (Mortara, 1925).
Subset of deaths (378K) available by calendar year. Distribute remaining deaths by year.
Another sample of deaths (10,085) available by age group. Within each year, distribute deaths by age group.
Problem: No data on number of troops mobilized/demobilized during war (to adjust civilian population estimates).

12. Approximation for Military Exposure
Assume Italian military suffered same death rates (by age group) as the French military.
Italian military death counts (by year and age group) are divided by French death rates to get exposure estimates.
In general, results reasonable except:
Total estimated exposure appears too high for 1919 (9.1 million; another source estimates the total number of Italian troops was 5.6 million).
Military exposure for males aged in 1917 implies that 99.6% of all males were in the military.

13. Military Deaths and Population Exposure, Totals by Year, World War I, Italy

14. Military Deaths and Adjusted Population Exposure, Totals by Year, World War I, Italy

15. Population Exposure, Total vs
Population Exposure, Total vs. Civilian, Males aged 20-25, , Italy

16. Accounting for Italian War Mortality, World War II
Military deaths including missing persons (291K) are available by calendar year and by age group (Istituto Centrale di Statistica, 1957).
Redistribute 1,115 deaths and 5,845 missing persons where year is unknown.
Redistribute 2,800 deaths and 4,033 missing persons where age is unknown.
Within calendar year, apply age distribution (by pre- and post-armistice) to estimated number of deaths.
Again, lacking data on number of troops mobilized and demobilized during the war.

17. Italian Males: Deaths all Ages, Total vs. Civilian, 1910-50

18. Italian Males: Deaths at Ages 20-24, Total vs. Civilian, 1910-50

19. Italian Males: Death Rates at Ages 20-24, Total vs. Civilian, 1910-50

20. Italian Males: Life Expectancy at Birth, Total vs. Civilian, 1910-50

21. Male e0, HMD, France vs. Italy

22. Male e0, Total Population, France vs. Italy

23. Conclusions For France, war had a huge impact on mortality estimates.
Evidence shown here suggests that war also had a substantial effect on Italian mortality.
Adjustments for wartime population movements can have a big effect on civilian population estimates, and as a result, mortality estimates.
Appropriate inter-country comparisons during wartime require data with comparable population coverage.