1. Airport In come and Expenses Forecast
Allan Nõmmik

2. Operating expenses Airfield expenses Airfield maintenance
Airfield lighting systems maintenance
Service of airport equipment
Utilities for the airfield
Others (maintenance of fire fighting equipment, airport service roads etc)

3. Operating expenses
Operating and maintenance expenses associated with the terminal include:
Buildings and grounds – maintenance and security services
Improvements to the land landscaping
Loading bridges and gates – maintenance and security services
Concession facilities and services
Observation facilities - maintenance and security services
Passenger, employee, and tenant parking facilities
Utilities (electricity, air-.conditioning and heating, and water)
Waste disposal – maintenance
Other equipment like air-conditioning, heating, baggage handling) - maintenance

4. Operating expenses Cargo, hangars Building and grounds
Improvements to the land and landscaping
Access roads - maintenance
Employee parking - maintenance
Utilities (electricity, air-conditioning and heating, and water)
Waste disposal – maintenance

5. In comes Aviation in comes Landing fees (per MTOW) Security fees
Passenger fees
Aircraft parking charges
Fuel flowage
Other in comes
Food and beverage concession
Travel services and facilities
Specialty stores and shops
Personal services
Amusements
Display advertising
Outside terminal concessions

6. Forecasting Aircraft operations, types Passengers ternover, cargo
Additionaly:
Passengers biheviour
Competition between airports and trends
Competition on the airlines market and trends

7. Forecasting of airport
Peaking characteristics
Types of aircraft
General aviation quantity
The performance and operating characteritics

8. Forecasting methods? Qualitative methods Quantitative methods
Short-term forecast 5years
Medium-term forecast 6- to 10 years
Long-term forecast 10 to 20 years
multiple scenarios: "pessimistic" scenario, “optimistic” scenario..

9. Qualitative methods Questionnaires: Management and administration
Experts (Delphi method)
Different sales personnel
Customers

10. Quantitative methods Time series methods Market share method
Ecomentric modeling
Simulation modeling
All of them needs a historical data but using philosophy and tehnics are different.

11. Time series method
This method is based upon an examination of the historical pattern of activity and assumes that continue to exhibit similar relationships in future.
year
Passenger’s turnover
Area population
1995
500000
1996
504700
1997
510000
1998
540900
1999
550000
2000
560000
2001
555000

12. Market share method
This meetod has been the dominant technique for aviation demand forecasting . ..
This methods are particulary useful in applications in which it can be demostrated that the market share is a regular, stable, or predictible parameter.

13. Ecomentric modeling Econometrics combines economy and statistics
There are a wide range of economic, social, market, and operational factor which affect air transportation.
Yest = a0 + a1 X1 + a2 X2 + a3 X3 + …. + an Xn
Yest variable which is being forecast
X1 , X2 variables being used to explain the variation in dependent variable
a0, a1 constants used to calibrate the equation