1. Hurricane Sandy Follow-up Vulnerability Assessment & Resilience Study Annual Meeting of the Metropolitan Area Planning (MAP) Forum North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority December 16, Heather Holsinger FHWA Sustainable Transportation and Resilience Team

2. Hurricane Sandy Study Background
Builds on a FHWA 2011 NJ pilot
Learn from experience of 2012 Hurricane Sandy and identify strategies to improve resiliency
Research project launched in Fall 2013
SLR 1 Meter, 2100, Coastal Study Area (Roadways). Source NJTPA

3. Hurricane Sandy Study Partners
Federal Highway Administration (FHWA)
Federal Transit Administration (FTA)
State Departments of Transportation in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut
Metropolitan Transportation Authority
Port Authority of New York & New Jersey
Metropolitan Planning Organizations:
New York Metropolitan Transportation Council
North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority
Western Connecticut Council of Governments
Connecticut Metropolitan Council of Governments
WCCOG
Western Connecticut Council of Governments
Consulting Team:
Cambridge Systematics
AECOM
Abt (Stratus Consulting)
Office of Radley Horton
C2E

4. Hurricane Sandy Study Objectives
Enhance the tri-state region’s resiliency to climate change and extreme weather in the longer term, while informing the ongoing Hurricane Sandy recovery process
Identify feasible, cost-effective strategies to reduce and manage extreme weather vulnerabilities amid the uncertainties of a changing climate
Advance the state of knowledge and develop methods to assist agencies in the tri-state region—and nationwide—to plan and invest for long-term climate resilience

5. Key Elements of Work Plan
Task 3: Regional, multi-modal damage/disruption assessment based on recent storms
Task 4: Asset-level assessments
Test engineering-based adaptation assessment process on 10 assets
All three state DOTs, PANYNJ, MTA, two counties
Task 5: System-level vulnerability and risk assessment
Regional vulnerability analysis (primarily exposure)
“Mesoscopic” application of vulnerability and risk assessment process; one each in CT, NY, and NJ

6. Task 3 - Regional Damage and Disruption Assessment
Analyzed historical data from recent storm-related damage and disruption
Sandy, Irene, Lee, and Storm Alfred (nor’easter)
Collected information on existing climate projections
Conducted gap analysis of climate data to inform our assessment of future scenarios

8. Task 4 – Engineering Assessment and Adaptation Analysis for Transportation Assets
Test the Engineering-Based Adaptation Assessment Process
Provide case studies and detail to process
Develop useful adaptation strategies for each asset

9. Task 4 – Engineering Assessment and Adaptation Analysis for Transportation Assets

10. 10 Transportation Assets
Task 4 - Engineering Assessment and Adaptation Analysis for Transportation Assets
10 Transportation Assets
6 in New York, 3 in New Jersey, 1 in Connecticut
A mix of bridges, highways, a port, and a railroad track
Range of Climate Stressors Covered
Sea level Rise and Storm Surge (7 assessments)
Extreme Precipitation (2 assessments)
Extreme Heat (1 assessment)
Range of Adaptation Strategies Proposed
Physical modifications (e.g., installation of seawalls)
Updating regulatory guidelines (e.g., updates to zero thermal stress temperature, updates to IDF Curve)

11. Engineering-Based Adaptation Assessments: Example: Loop Parkway Bascule Bridge, NY
Source: NYSDOT Rehabilitation of Loop Parkway over Long Creek, 1991 and AECOM, 2014.

12. Task 5: Regional Transportation System Vulnerability Assessment
Work Products
GIS input files and outputs of analysis
Climate projections
Compilation of other reports and resources
Intent
Provide information and resources so that agencies can conduct their own follow-up analyses
Help identify candidates for subareas assessment

13. Regional Vulnerability Overlays - SLOSH

14. Regional Vulnerability Overlays – NFHL

15. Transportation System Criticality#
NHS
Evacuation Rt.
Reg. Freight
Reg. People
Intermodal Hub 1 l 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

16. Subarea Selection Criteria
Range of geographies and climate impacts
One per state
Relatively high vulnerability
Avoiding duplication of effort
Usefulness of results

17. Subareas Selected Norwalk-Danbury Corridor Long Island South Shore
Raritan Bayshore

18. Task 5: Mesoscopic Analysis of Adaptation Strategies in Vulnerable Subareas
Work Products
More detailed vulnerability and risk assessment, including benefit-cost analysis of adaptation strategies
Intent
Demonstrate how a vulnerability and risk assessment process can be performed at a “mesoscopic” level
Bridge the gap between system-level analysis and asset-specific assessment

19. Next Steps Finalize project work products and report (December 2016)
Stakeholder Review (December 2016-January 2017)
Report release (Target late February 2017)

20. Hurricane Sandy Study and Beyond
FHWA Goal: Mainstream consideration of climate change vulnerability and risk in transportation decision making
Hurricane Sandy project is informing our collective understanding on integrating climate resilience at multiple levels
Planning
Regional Long Range Transportation Plans
Corridor Analysis
Project
Engineering
Design
Operations and Maintenance
Emergency Relief
Asset Management Plans

21. Thank you! For more information:
My Contact Info:
Heather Holsinger