1. Global food systems of the future: Challenges and opportunities
Bart Minten
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

2. Introduction Food value chains transformed worldwide.
Will focus on three major driving forces and implications on future food systems:
1/ Population growth=>more foods
2/ Income growth=>different foods
3/ Urbanization=>market more and different foods
[IMPACT model IFPRI; Msangi, 2016)]

3. 1. Population projections to 2050

4. 2. Per capita income projections to 2050

5. Per Capita Cereal Consumption

6. As people get richer they consume more animal products
Consumption of Meat
As people get richer they consume more animal products

7. Per Capita Meat Consumption

8. Per cap Fruit & Vegetable Consumption

9. Agro-processing

10. 3. Urbanization projections to 2050

11. Rural-urban food value chains
Surprising little research/knowledge/data in developing countries
Present some results from:
3 Asian countries (China; India; Bangladesh)
1 African country
Focus on major cities and major value chains (1/ Asia: Rice and potato; 2/ Africa: teff)

12. How important off-farm segment in rural-urban value chains (on average)?

13. How important off-farm segment in value chains (on average)?

14. How important off-farm segment in value chains (on average)?

15. Transformation of technologies
Rice mill segment technology transformation:
Substantial investments in expanding and upgrading milling equipment (especially so by larger mills)
Larger mills more expensive equipment; can polish and double polish; increasing grade differentiation (and capturing value added of this)
More efficient cold storage technologies became available

16. Transformation of the marketing conduct
Mill segment marketing transformation:
Disintermediation, e.g. decline of village traders (but different over countries)
Emerging vertical integration (large mills and large wholesalers)
Emergence of branded rice (especially by medium and large mills); If no brands, still shift from marketing loose to packed rice

17. Transformation of the marketing conduct
Trader segment transformation:
Geographical lengthening of rice value chains (e.g. Beijing rice market supplied from 1,500 kms away; Agra market has become central in India)
Rice wholesalers in urban cities increasingly buy directly from medium and large mills (disintermediation and up- scaling)

18. Transformation of value chain finance
Increased disappearance of “tied output- credit markets”; share of paddy farmers getting advances from traders very small in all samples (0% in China to 10% in Vietnam)
Advances from clients to mills and from traders to retailers more common (but still minority)
Credit from modern cold storages very prevalent

19. Structural transformation of the value chain
Transport: Share of small trucks transporting food declining over time; margins between markets declining

20. Structural transformation of the value chain
Storage: Upscaling to large-scale cold storages in Bangladesh and India; have replaced wholesale markets as the center of trade

21. Structural transformation of the value chain
Trader segment: 1/ Enlargement of its coverage in space (longer distance trade becoming more important); variation over countries
Retail segment: 1/ Penetration of supermarkets (e.g. Delhi 7%; however, already 50% in Beijing); 2/ Supermarkets often selling staples more cheaply than traditional shops

22. Effect of cities on farmers

23. Conclusions
Transformation driven by urbanization, diet change and income growth, and population growth
Drives processes of modernization of farms, upscaling, disintermediation, super- marketization, branding
Off-farm segment in food becoming more important
Huge challenges and opportunities in guiding this process
Some initial results of what to expect but still lots of unknowns