1. Land Use and Cover Change Progress Report, 11 LBA SSC Meeting CENA, Piracicaba, 24 May 2002
What was planned
What was achieved
What was not
Are there any things missing
Diógenes Alves, INPE

2. Land Use and Cover Change
Source: LBA Science Plan, 1996
Land Use and Cover Change
LBA questions by 1996:
Rates and mechanisms of forest conversion to agricultural use
Relative importance of different land uses
Dynamics and patterns of land conversion and abandonment
Area of forest affected by selective logging
Plausible scenarios of future land cover change
Research strategy:
Basin-wide studies of rates and spatial patterns of deforestation
Case studies of patterns of deforestation and abandonment
Integration of socioeconomic factors and conditions
Methods:
Satellite remote sensing, government statistics, survey data

3. Remote Sensing in LUCC Research
Satellite data provide temporal and spatial dimensions to study the dynamics of vegetation and its disturbances over a wide range of scales
Frequency of occurrence and extent of fires and distribution of atmospheric aerosols
Areas of expected new developments:
Radiative transfer modelling, forest regrowth stages, processing of active and passive microwave sensor images, atmospheric profiles of temperature and water vapour, cloud properties and precipitation
Landsat 7, MODIS, SPOT 5 Vegetation , CBERS, AVIRIS, ...
SIVAM airborne sensors
Laser Vegetation Imaging

4. Land Use and Cover Change Projects by research foci
Based on project list from LBA home page
Submissions to 2 Scient. Conf. not considered
More refined analysis of areas still required
Training/education and investigators affiliation not considered
LBA/DIS aspects not considered
New proposals not considered
Reflects personal perception about LBA and no- LBA projects

5. Rates, patterns and mechanisms of forest conversion and abandonment
Agriculture colonization in the Ecuadorian Amazon
Richard Bilsborrow & Stephen J.Walsh (U.N.Car.), Mario Garcia (Ecociencia)
Anthropogenic landscape changes and the dynamics of
Amazonian forest biomass
W. Laurance (Smithsonian), R. G. Mesquita (INPA)
Human and physical dimensions of land use/cover change
E. Moran (IU), D. Valeriano (INPE)
Measurements and modeling of the interannual dynamics of
deforestation and secondary regrowth
D. Skole (Mich.St.U.), M. Pedlowski (UENF), L.G.T. da Silva (Embrapa RO)
Monitoring areas of wood exploration in the Amazon
C.M. Souza Jr. - IMAZON
Monitoring, management, and recovery of landscapes
in eastern Acre
I. Foster Brown - UFAC

6. Landscape research / Selective logging
Land Cover/Land Use change and carbon dynamics
I.F. Brown (WHRC), A. Setzer (INPE), E. Amaral (EMBRAPA Acre)
Anthropogenic landscape changes and biomass
Validation and evaluation of MODIS data products
A. Huete (U. Ariz.), Y. Shimabukuro (INPE), E. Sano (Embrapa)
Multi-scale analyses of inundation
J. Melack (U.C.S.B.), E.M. Novo (INPE)
Human and physical dimensions of land use/cover change
Measurements and modeling of the interannual dynamics
Evaluation of EO-1 Hyperion and ALI for forest logging
G. Asner (U Colorado), Natalino Silva (Embrapa Amz Oriental)
Selective Logging and Phenology from Spectroscopy and Radar
G. Asner (Carnegie Inst.), J. Natalino Silva (Embrapa Amz Oriental)
Monitoring areas of wood exploration in the Amazon
Monitoring, management, and recovery of landscapes in Acre

7. Land cover* / Biogeochemistry / Hydrology
Land Cover/Land Use change and carbon dynamics
Radar remote sensing of land cover and biomass in Amazonia
Validation and evaluation of MODIS data products
Multi-scale analyses of inundation
Modeling the biogeochemical system
Mapping study of the Amazon Basin with JERS-1
Near-Real time South American GAC data production
Low-cost evaluation of EO-1 Hyperion and ALI for forest logging
The effects of precipitation exclusion in the Amazon forest
Mapping global aerodynamic roughness length at 1 km scale
The effects of rainfall exclusion - Dry Cerrado Project
Lidar Remote Sensing for Aboveground Biomass
Selective Logging and Phenology from Spectroscopy and Radar
Use of Airborne Remote Sensing for Uncertainty Assessments with MODIS
Hyperspectral Analysis of Land-Cover in Rondonia

8. Land Use / Land Cover Change Areas of study
Agriculture colonization in the Ecuadorian Amazon : Ecuador
LUCC and carbon dynamics; Landscape in Eastern AC - Acre
Radar remote sensing of land cover and biomass in Amazonia: Acre, Rondonia, Santarém
Anthropogenic landscape changes and the dynamics of Amazonian forest biomass - Manaus
Validation and evaluation of MODIS data products - Santarém, Brasilia
Multi-scale analyses of inundation: Rondônia, Santarém
Human and physical dimensions of land use/cover change: Pará, Rondônia, Colombia
Measurements /modeling of interannual dynamics: Rondônia, Santarém
Near-Real time South American GAC data production - B Wide
Low-cost evaluation of EO-1 Hyperion and ALI for forest logging: Santarém
The effects of precipitation exclusion in the Amazon forest Santarém, Brasília
Mapping global aerodynamic roughness length of land surface at 1 km scale: B Wide
The effects of rainfall exclusion - Dry Cerrado Project: Brasilia
Lidar Remote Sensing for Aboveground Biomass : Rondônia, Santarém, Manaus
Selective Logging and Phenology from Spectroscopy and Radar: Paragominas, Santarém
Uncertainty Assessments with MODIS: Santarém, Brasilia, Canguçú (?)
Hyperspectral Analysis of Land-Cover in Rondonia: Rondônia

9. Land Use / Cover Change Major developments
Rates and mechanisms of forest conversion to agricultural land uses
Total deforestation and average rates - 1-3x106 ha yr-1
Progress on case studies/few basin-wide analyses
Modest site representativeness (†); many critical areas ignored (†)
Mechanisms of forest conversion poorly understood (†)
Relative importance of different land uses
Census data still major source; other sources not representative (†)
Dynamics and patterns of land conversion and abandonment
Case studies helped to understand local dynamics (†)
Basin wide patterns and dynamics poorly understood (†)
Area of forest affected by selective logging each year
New developments from remote sensing and field surveys
Fate of the areas affected by selective logging to be better understood
Plausible scenarios of future land cover change - not much significant progress particularly due to items marked (†)

10. Land Use / Cover Change Dataset development
Pathfinder and INPE datasets
Land cover, deforestation and secondary vegetation
Land use restricted to simplified forest/no for/defor/secondary vegetation
JERS-1 dataset
Flood plain mosaic
Airborne campaigns land cover: AVIRIS, LVIS
How are these data to be treated in LBA DIS

11. Land Use and Cover Change Concentration of forest clearing
Fearnside 1989?, Alves in press, Alves in press
Land Use and Cover Change Concentration of forest clearing

12. Alves et al 1999, Alves et al Submitted
Land Use and Cover Change Forest reservations not preserved Abandonment decreases as land use is intensified

13. concentration of forest clearings: the development of a
Alves in press
Major effect of
concentration of forest clearings:
the development of a
spatial continuum where
pastures (and occasionally, grains)
dominate the landscape
Land Use and Cover Change Effects of concentration of forest clearing

14. Abstract submitted
Land use intensification - cattle increses faster than pastures. Family agriculture crops decline. Pastures increase their importance

15. Questions to be answered
From 1996 LBA objectives:
What are and where are the prevailing patterns ?
How does LUCC function for each of them ?
Some “new” ones:
How they affect the carrying capacities ?
What are their characteristics related to land productivity and degradation ?
What are their characteristics related to urbanization, rural out migration and tenure structure (dynamics), rural conflicts, urbanization ... ?
Remote sensing oportunities:
Patterns of landscape transfomation and deforestation
Patterns of landscape transfomation and land abandonment
Land degradation and productivity
Production systems

16. More questions to be answered (close work with MCT needed here):
What are the missing gaps/questions that MCT would see as relevant to LBA to focus on ? Will MCT direct any additional efforts into improving this component ?
How does MCT see the role of its Institutes within this component?
Will future MCT research programmes encompass this component ?
How does MCT see this component in comparison with other well organized Federal programmes like PPG7, Avança Brasil, and, particularly, agricultural research ?