1. CHINA THE HOUSING BUBBLE CURT TRUMAN B.S., M.P.A.
Masters of Sustainable Solutions
Arizona State University
School of Sustainability

2. China is 4 times the population of the U.S.A
Populaiton:
1.390 Billion
Population:
319 Million
China is 4 times the population of the U.S.A

3. Population (2014): 1.39 billion
Urban populationwill reach one billion by 2030
Over 700,000,000 people live in urban areas - That's half the population
Population Growth (2014 estimate): 0.44%
By the year 2050 over 70% of all Chinese will live in Urban Areas.

4. China has 34 provincial-level administrative units:
23 provinces,
4 municipalities (Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Chongqing),
5 autonomous regions (Guangxi, Inner Mongolia, Tibet, Ningxia, Xinjiang)
and 2 special administrative regions (Hong Kong, Macau).

7. WHAT IS A REAL ESTATE BUBBLE ?
Characterized by rising prices of land and real estate until the price increase becomes unsustainable
The market reacts when housing prices take a dramatic fall - The Market Crashes
There is to much housing inventory and no Buyers because prices are to high
China has over 64 million vacant apartment units
With a 4 to 7 year supply of housing inventory

8. THE HOUSING BUBBLE IN CHINA
Research Question:
AS PART OF CHINA'S STIMULUS APPROACH DID A HARROD-DOMAR ECONOMIC MODEL TRIGGER AGGRESSIVE REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA?
WITH MASSIVE SAVING AVAILABLE FOR INVESTMENT WAS A LOOSE MONETARY POLICY RESPONSBLE FOR SUCH MASSIVE OVER BUILDING?

12. China's Housing Inventory is 64 million vacant units = The populations of California and Texas combined!

13. GROWTH THEORIES INDICATORS THE HARROD DOMAR GROWTH MODEL
SAVINGS TO INVESTMENT
STIMULUS PLANS
INDICATORS
GDP AND THE PERCENT OF REAL ESTATE GROWTH
SAVINGS RATES
CHINA'S HOUSING INVENTORY

15. CHINA'S SAVINGS RATE IS 50% THE US'S SAVINGS RATE IS 5%
CHINA'S PRODUCTION EXCEEDS IT'S SPENDING
THE U.S. SPENDS MORE THAN IT PRODUCES
The U.S. IS A NATION OF CONSUMPTIVE CONSUMERS
(BLACK FRIDAY?)

16. CHINA'S SAVING AND INVESTMENT RATES
Click to add text

17. HOW TO MEASURE THE BUBBLE

18. HOW DID IT HAPPEN?
THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT DEVELOPED A LOOSE MONETARY POLICY
WHICH FULLED INCREASE BORROWIG BY LOCAL GOVERNMENTS, DEVELOPER/BUILDERS AND INDUSTRIAL COMPANIES
The Chinese Government thought that a stimulus program was a good idea to kick-start the economy and trigger investment and growth
The rise in Real Estate prices was triggered by the credit infusion of 2009 to enhance economic growth amidst the U.S. Financial Crisis
So in Theory it was the Harrod-Domar Model at work

19. CHINA'S GDP v U.S.

20. THE IMPACT OF THE HOUSING CRISIS.....
China became the wild west of speculative borrowing and building
Housing Bubble took an unsustainable turn and left millions of Chinese citizens vulnerable
It ignored simple land ethics; citizen's ability to adapt to rapid expansion
the relationship between man and the environment
low-income rice farmers and their fields
It forced millions of Chinese to jump between adaptation and transformation strategies

21. The Housing Boom as part of the Stimulus Plan

22. Urbanization and Migration
Over 70 percent of Chinese are expected to be living in cities by 2050, compared to less than half in advantages.

23. TO BE CONTINUE .....