1. Devolution in England
Tony Travers
LSE

2. Devolution in England Kilbrandon Report Labour’s post-1997 proposals
killed off by the 2004 North East referendum
City regions
Metropolitan counties (1974 to 1986)
GLC (1965 to 1986) then GLA (Mayor and Assembly)
Post-abolition AGMA
Combined authorities at end of Labour government
Greater Manchester Agreement (2014)
Cities and Local Government Devolution Bill [HL]

3. Source:
Institute
For Government

4. Scotland and Wales
Since 1999 there has been significant devolution to Scotland and Wales
The Edinburgh Parliament and Cardiff Assembly are, effectively, permanent
Despite the lack of constitutional protection
Evidence of a loss of sovereignty by Westminster
At least until Brexit…
Radical fiscal devolution now in preparation
Weakens Treasury’s position re other parts of UK
England left as a single, centralised unit
Unique compared to other major countries
Suggests that national politicians believe sub-national political capacity is incapable of government

5. England Relatively fewer MPs than Scotland or Wales Total Per head
Northern Ireland ,600
Despite the existence of legislative powers in Scotland, Wales and NI
Challenge of ‘English votes’ issue….

6. England and the Union
Is under-representation in Parliament, no devolved government and lower public expenditure simply the price the English must pay to keep the Union together?
This has long been the case, though devolution to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland has affected perceptions
Certainly, ‘England’ cannot assert itself much within the Union
Any radical England positioning by English MPs would undermine the UK government and the position of the other three nations
But could it be allowed some measure of devolution?
Beyond London

7. City regional mayors - a short history
London’s mayor (elected in 2000) was partly a replacement for the GLC, partly co-incident with devolution to Scotland, Wales
Non ‘city regional’ mayors introduced elsewhere in England
Regional policy for the rest of England doomed after 2004 North East referendum
No 78% Yes 22%
‘City regions’ as a policy started towards the end of the Blair-Brown government

8. City regional mayors - a short history
Cameron/Osborne built on the previous government’s policy
Separately, Greater Manchester had been developing its own ‘city regional’ economic and policy mechanism
Osborne adopted this and evolved the ‘Northern Powerhouse’
City-regional mayors made a condition of greater devolution to combined authorities
Legislation to allow ad hoc, ‘bespoke’ (random?) change

9. Where does this take us?
Could lead to radical devolution to GM and other ‘city regions’?
Legislation allows wide differences from city to city
skills, planning, housing, transport, NHS
Also counties, but not London except by its own new deals
Or, to very little change?
There is still huge resistance to fiscal devolution in England
London Finance Commission 1
Little movement so far
Areas seen by HMT as ‘too rich’ or ‘too poor’ to sustain fiscal devolution

10. Sub-national tax-raising

11. City regional spending and taxation
Source:
London Finance Commission

12. The potential impact of devolved taxes

13. International comparisons

14. Implied government concern re devolution and related policies
Mentions of devolutionary concepts in UK Budget documents
Devolution
Northern Powerhouse
Mayor
March 2013 1
March 2014
March 2015 19 10 7
Summer 2015 25 9 12
March 2016 49 24
March 2017 8

15. Devolution, city-regions and mayors
This policy has almost certainly been ‘paused’
No evidence of much ministerial concern with moving further towards a more comprehensive form of ‘English devolution’
‘Northern Powerhouse’ and ‘Midlands Engine’ policies cover areas significantly wider than city-regions
Policy has settled, for the time being on:
Delivering the May 2017 elected mayors/combined authorities
2018 mayoral elections in Sheffield
Possible ‘North of Tyne’ combined authority with mayor
Greater Lincolnshire not progressing

16. Implications from London
Turnouts can vary, but are generally above those of local government
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
34.4
36.9
45.3
38.1
With no district elections in metropolitan areas this year, the mayoral contest will
be the only one – except in Cambridgeshire

17. Being mayor can make you very popular

18. The geo-politics of the EU referendum vote: does this make a difference? - UK, nations and regions
Source: Science 2.0

19. London: city state… - might this happen in other city regions?
The ‘single constituency’ for the mayor appears to have generated a more powerful civic identity for London
Reinforced by the 2016 referendum vote
But not quite enough (yet) to give London sufficient power to deliver Scotland or Wales-style devolution
Might the new collective of city mayors become a lobby for ‘English devolution’?
Issue probably now tied up in the future of the Union, the challenge of financing the State and other ‘external’ factors…

20. Devolution in England
Tony Travers
LSE