1. Higher Education - many pathways
Margaret Farragher, Head of Policy and Qualifications

2. Themes
Widening participation
Qualification reform
Apprenticeships

3. 2016 Cycle – The story so far Headlines
10/12/2017
2016 Cycle – The story so far
Headlines
Slight slowing of demand
Record numbers of applicants enter HE
Difference in entry rate between men and women is larger than ever before
Further increase in the number of disadvantaged learners entering HE, but progress slows
Majority of growth driven by BTEC learners to middle Tariff institutions

4. Applications: Scotland and Wales 33%
2016 numbers…
Applications: Scotland and Wales 33%
48% Northern Ireland
37% England
Acceptances:
522,000

5. Flat UK demand…but an uplift from the EU
EU (excl. UK) up 6%
International down 2% first fall.

6. Population is set to fall by 80,000 by 2020
Falling UK 18 year old population
Population is set to fall by 80,000 by 2020

7. WP as a political priority
‘We have made strong progress to open up access to
higher education but I’m still concerned about low
participation rates for disadvantaged white boys and
we must do more to raise outcomes for those from
black and minority ethnic communities’
Universities Minister Jo Johnson MP

8. What is the WP challenge?
Key objectives of the government’s National Strategy for WP:
Raising levels of attainment at Level 3 amongst disadvantaged and under-represented groups
Encouraging more learners from disadvantaged and under-represented groups to apply to HE
Supporting effective transition to HE and successful completion of the course of study and progression to graduate employment or postgraduate education

9. 45.9% of most advantaged population
Slowing progress towards widening participation
45.9% of most advantaged population
18.6% of least advantaged population Vs

10. UCAS Through the student lens report
Disadvantaged concerned about practicalities
More advantaged concerned about growing a network
Those knowing by age 10 are 2.6 x more likely to be placed in high tariff
Cost and logistics are barriers to open days
Lack of grade transparency causes confusion
Findings
Be clear about actual entry requirements
Give information about the cost of living and study
Open days − consider timing, structure and funding
Explain link between subjects and career paths
Actions

11. The qualification landscape
Decoupled AS – England
New Core Maths – England
New Nationals – Scotland
New A levels – England, Wales and NI
New Highers – Scotland
Science practical grades – England
VQ reform – England
New Welsh Bacc – Wales
Coupled AS – Wales and NI
New GCSEs – England, Wales and NI

12. 74% schools in England continuing to offer AS
Response to qualifications reform
74% schools in England continuing to offer AS
“Insufficient information about course content and structure is provided and it is difficult for colleagues to plan when the information is being drip fed as the course progresses.”

13. 10/12/2017
GCSE reform
9-1
A- G Wales
9-1 and A- C*- G

14. Vocational reform underway
Overhaul in England
91% of Level 3 qualifications that previously counted towards performances tables removed from 2016
Classification
Applied General –support from three universities
Tech Level –recognised by a professional body or five+ employers
Criteria
External assessment:
Applied General – 40%
Tech Level – 30%
…and synoptic assessment
Vocational reform underway

15. Technical Education Pathways to come…
‘Our recommendations call for a fundamental shift. This is a chance to systematically reform technical education for the long term; ensuring individuals can develop the technical knowledge and skills that industry needs through their education and training’
(Independent Panel on Technical Education, April 2016)

16. UK 18 year old acceptances by qualification group − 2008 vs. 2015
70%
A levels
64%
19%
BTECS, BTECs taken with A levels 9%

17. 19 year olds holding Level 3
DfE data , extrapolated to 2020 and relative to 2014 value
This data uses the UCAS interpretation of the population of 19 year olds domiciled in England and applies the proportion of those achieving various level 3 qualifications sourced from Table 3 of DfE’s SFR_ “Level 2 and 3 attainment by young people in England measured using matched administrative data: Attainment by age 19 in 2014” ( For the extrapolation from 2014 it is assumed that the growth of proportion of English 19 year olds holding Vocational qualifications is 1 percentage point a year and proportion taking A levels remains constant (38.5%).
Vocational >20% growth
Table 3: Percentage of 19 year olds qualified to Level 3, by qualification type and cohort
Coverage: England
Cohort (19 in…)
Number in cohort (Not used in UCAS extrap)
Qualification Type attained
Number with a Level 3 by age 19**
Percentage achieving a Level 3 by age 19**
A-Levels, Applied A levels
AS Levels
Advanced Apprenticeship*
Vocational qualification outside of Apprenticeship
International Baccalaureate
2004
614,564
37.1
1.5
0.5
3.0
0.0
259,312
42.2
2005
618,397
37.0
0.7
6.4
282,332
45.7
2006
633,117
36.4
1.0
7.7
0.2
296,841
46.9
2007
653,657
35.9
1.6
9.4
0.3
314,956
48.2
2008
647,457
35.2
1.1
11.4
321,506
49.7
2009
658,408
35.7
1.7
1.2
12.5
338,402
51.4
2010
665,139
36.0
14.3
358,357
53.9
2011
661,689
37.2
15.3
374,197
56.6
2012
640,619
37.7
1.9
16.0
0.6
371,302
58.0
2013
640,930
38.0
16.9
378,916
59.1
2014
626,238
38.5
1.4
17.7
375,164
59.9
* The Apprenticeship figures include those achieving a full level 3 qualification while on an apprenticeship framework (not necessarily completing the framework) and may also include some cases where qualifications have been achieved on other Work Base Learning/Employer Responsive routes
** Includes a small number of individuals achieving via a combination of qualifications. Due to this and independent rounding the sum of the different qualification types may not equal the total achieving L3 by 19
These qualification type figures are based on the qualifications held at 19 prioritised in the following order, A levels, IB, AS levels, Advanced Apprenticeship, Vocational Qualification outside of apprenticeship, rather than strictly the first qualification achieved that meets the level 3 threshold.
Combined similar to 2014
A levels decreasing

18. What does this mean?
Non A level learners drive growth and high grade A level learners in demand
Fewer have high grade A levels
Fewer have A levels
Fewer 18 (and 19) year olds available to recruit
% of those with ≥ 3 predicted grades:
Year
≥ 3 predicted grades
Predicted ABB
Achieved ABB
%Predicted
%Achieved
2010
163,090
86,780
66,580
53.2%
40.8%
2011
162,865
90,510
67,810
55.6%
41.6%
2012
155,795
91,530
65,910
58.8%
42.3%
2013
155,280
94,430
65,350
60.8%
42.1%
2014
153,830
95,130
63,260
61.8%
41.1%
2015
157,715
98,750
63,490
62.6%
40.3%

19. 10/12/2017
Progression Pathways

20. 10/12/2017
Progression Pathways

21. UCAS and Apprenticeships
UCAS has supported Apprenticeships as follows:
Search services – UCAS Progress displays Intermediate and Advanced level Apprenticeships.
Admissions services – Learners can apply directly to the training provider or via UCAS Progress - 10,000 applications in 2016
Information and advice services – We provide information and advice about academic and vocational pathways
New Higher and Degree Apprenticeship course display service

22. Apprenticeship I&A

23. Higher and Degree Apprenticeships via UCAS

24. Presenting the Higher and Degree Apprenticeship offer to young people
What are they?
How get on one?
How ensure success?

25. How can we continue supporting you?

26. Questions? Margaret Farragher Head of Policy and Qualifications 