1. Forecasting skill demand and supply in Europe:
Overview of 2nd 4 year programme
Skillsnet Technical Workshop
Thessaloniki November 2016
Professor Rob Wilson, Institute for Employment Research,
University of Warwick, United Kingdom
Centre of Policy Studies (CoPS)
Victoria University, Melbourne, Australia

2. Some basic statistics Over 30 researchers involved
Around 200,000 time series projected each round
Almost 200 substantial Excel workbooks for each quantitative scenario
Each containing hundreds of tables and charts
Multiple scenarios developed
Dozens of papers/reports produced, focusing on
Methodology;
Results; and
Policy
Not that long ago we met in Paphos and decided that it was possible to do systematic skills forecasting at a pan-European levels (in fact it was 11 years ago!)
Following pilot projects the first 4 year programme got underway and now we are at the end of the second 4 year framework programme !
Time to reflect on what has been achieved 
Of course there are still many outstanding issues – to be addressed in the new work-plan ( over to Rachel!)

3. Overview of achievements 2012-2016 – Core Projections
Core modelling and projections (OF1 & OF2):
Development of the Conceptual Framework (widely quoted on other similar work (Cedefop/ETF/ILO Guides; South Africa, etc)
Data and model refinements
Further analysis of imbalances
Validation & Evaluation (role of CGEs and ICEs)
Dissemination, etc (new reports & EUSP)

4. Overview of achievements 2012-2016 - Various “value added” projects
Technical and many other developments (OFs 3-6):
Designing and developing qualitative & quantitative policy scenarios
Occupational Skills Profiles (use of PIAAC and other developments)
Use of results for Careers Guidance & related matters
Other non-econometric approaches to assessing skill demands
Innovations on dissemination - Sectoral and other reports
Computable General Equilibrium model developments: Dynamic CGE modelling & MLME

5. General methodological and modelling developments (OF1 &2)
Adoption of new classification standards (NACE, ISCO, ISCED
Incorporation of latest data and views - Demographics; macroeconomic; sectoral; occupational; qualifications:
TW & RS (AM) - basic input data from LFS;
RB & EA (CE) – various major economic shocks;
RW, PM, et al. (IER) – continued refinement of models based on i.
External scrutiny & validation - Evolving role of CGEs (EC, TG, VS and SG) and ICEs

6. General methodological and modelling developments (OF2)
General modelling developments (skills demand and supply), including development of consistent scenarios:
RB & EA (CE) – macroeconomic modelling
DB, RW, et al. (IER) – modelling the supply of and demand for skills
AK et al.) (ROA) – replacement demands
BK (ERC); GAM (COPS); & EY/RW (IER) - Imbalance indicators (various developments and improved interpretation, including computable modelling methods (CMM))
(Eveline Sijbers; Olga Skriabikova

7. Other contributions - Interpretation and Dissemination (OF3 & 6)
Development of qualitative scenarios (EC & TL)
Innovations in reporting, including detailed analysis of future sectoral and occupational skill needs - TG (Interval), et al. (links to the EU Skills Panorama)
Occupational Skills Profiles:
Technical developments – exploiting PIAAC, etc
(RV & JA (ROA); JK & ML (ERC));
Assessment of value of the results for careers guidance and advice (TV (NTF); CP (3s); TH (IER))
Baranova and Martinaitis (2013): Assessments of over and under qualification of the labour force;
Dumčius, Stančiauskas and Šaduikis (2013). Policy implications of the skills forecasts;
Dzhengozovaand, Humpl et al. Combining Qualitative and Quantitative Trend Information;
Grebe, (2013). Options for the Sectoral Analysis of CEDEFOP Projection Data;
Lepič, and Koucký (2013). Country specific OSP for the Czech Republic and related documentation for 2013 Country workbooks;
Kriechel, (2013). Identifying and analysing imbalances in the Pan-European skills supply and demand forecast ;
Leney, and Colombo, (2013). Qualitative Scenarios 2025: Economic recovery from the recession of the late 2000s, from jobless growth to jobless recovery?;
Meagher, G. A, R.A. Wilson and E. Yerushalmi. Emerging Structural Pressures in European labour markets;
Stehrer, R, T. Ward, and R. Wilson. (2013). Changes in the classification of occupations: the implications for skills projections;
Tancioni and Beqiraj, (2013). The FGB-LM model;
Wilson, (2013). Country Overview, Year 1: UK;

8. Other contributions: “value added” projects (OF3 & 4)
Other aspects of Computable Modelling Methods
- Dynamic CGE (MT & EB, (FGB))
Policy implications of the skills forecasts
- interpretation of results for policy (RD, VS, KŠ & VG, (PPMI))
Combining Qualitative and Quantitative Trend Information (MD & SH et al (3s))
Use of Semantic Technology to assess value of web posted vacancies for understanding of changing skill demands (CP (3s))
Assessments of over and under qualification of the labour force (JB, ZM (VA))
Massimiliano Tancioni & Elton Beqiraj, (FGB)
Rimantas Dumčius, Vilius Stančiauskas, Karolis Šaduikis and Vaida Gineikytė, (PPMI)
Mariya Dzhengozova, Stefan Humpl et al (3s)
- Jelizaveta Baranova, Zilvinas Martinaitis, (VA)

9. Additional policy analysis Scenario (OF5)
How future supply might impact on EU labour markets (building on Cedefop & OECD work): LM participation rates and migration - Examining impact on future labour market imbalances
Key issues: Finding a better mix between activation and migration adjustments in different countries, sectors, occupations
Policy lessons:
Impact likely to be modest - achieving significant increases in LM participation rates difficult without other policies to boost growth
Regarding migration and EU-wide mobility - Benefits likely to be greatest if they solve an imbalance in both of two countries involved
Improving mobility within the EU - greater transparency of imbalances; harmonisation of qualifications; EU wide hiring
But even in a fully integrated labour markets regional imbalances are often long running and persistent.

10. Where next? – Possible future developments
Dealing with ongoing external shocks, Brexit and all that
Demand for greater detail
Data issues and possible solutions
Dissemination and interpretation
Other matters

11. Institute for Employment Research
Contact Details
Professor Rob Wilson
Institute for Employment Research
University of Warwick
COVENTRY, CV4 7AL
Tel: +(44)