1. Celina Independent School District
New Boundary Review

2. Economic Conditions- Dallas-Fort Worth MSA
Unemployment
Rate
OCTOBER 2016
4.4%
3.4%
Texas
Collin County 7% 6% 5% 4% 3%
USA
DFW
4.7%
3.6%
1.7%
Annual Job
Growth Rate
OCTOBER 2016
USA
3.3%
DFW
Texas 0% 1% 2% 3% 4%
Source: Texas Workforce Commission

3. Celina ISD Home Sales January – October 2016 Sales by Transaction Type
The district has had 372 home sales in 2016, and roughly 22% were of new homes
The average sale price in 2016 for a new home is $345,203
The average sale price in 2016 for an existing home is $365,536
Source: Metrostudy and Collin County Deed Transactions

4. DFW New Home Ranking Report
ISD Ranked by Annual Closings – 3Q16
Rank
District Name
Annual Starts
Annual Closings
VDL
Future 1
Frisco ISD
2,755
2,597
3,637
7,828 2
Denton ISD
2,055
1,977
2,400
17,000 3
Prosper ISD
2,417
1,814
4,227
28,278 4
Lewisville ISD
1,358
1,295
1,637
3,849 5
Northwest ISD
1,464
1,247
2,112
20,991 6
Little Elm ISD
1,044
1,204
1,381
4,817 7
Dallas ISD
1,361
1,154
2,484
6,010 8
Eagle Mt.-Saginaw ISD
850
906
783
20,462 9
Keller ISD
772
844
931
1,881 10
Rockwall ISD
965
721
1,949
8,143 11
Mansfield ISD
765
674
1,054
6,324 12
Crowley ISD
769
666
612
9,392 13
McKinney ISD
784
625
1,683
5,701 14
Wylie ISD
733
606
889
4,769 15
Forney ISD
611
578
818
14,601 16
Allen ISD
580
497
1,104
1,529 17
Coppell ISD
482
469
728
355 18
Burleson ISD
426
466
564
3,188 19
Plano ISD
476
453
970
2,775 20
Waxahachie ISD
467
435
661
10,064
Added: Dynavest (11,000 futures); Old Celina LTD (1,250 futures); Kirk Ranch (5,362 futures); Homestead at Ownsby Farms (400 futures) ; Collins Celina (1,950 futures); 1,652 futures to Green Meadows; 42
Everman ISD
111
150
254
4,542 43
Celina ISD
134
147
367
31,621* 44
Lancaster ISD
222
145
286
3,219
* Based on additional research by TD staff
Source: Metrostudy

5. New Housing Activity Celina ISD
Starts
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Closings 1Q 20 10 16 31 39 37 21 23 33 28 2Q 18 25 77 54 15 53 34 3Q 22 45 26 62 4Q 17 60 51 12 38 59
Total 76 69 73
196
189 83 66
135
207 88
Celina ISD is on pace to start more than 100 homes in 2016
The district has closed 88 new homes in the first 3 quarters of 2016, down from the same period in 2015
Celina ISD currently has a healthy 6.0 month’s supply of new homes
Source: Metrostudy

6. District Housing Overview
Over 130 Annual Starts
Almost 150 Annual Closings
About 50 homes UC
More than 350 VDL
More than 30,000 future lots in various stages of development
Future Subdivision
Active Subdivision

7. Ten Year Forecast By Grade Level
Year (Oct) EE PK K
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th
11th
12th
Total
Total Growth
% Growth
2012/13 5 53
120
149
146
156
152
143
164
167
173
174
144
140
2,035
2013/14 10 35
169
138
148
159
154
170
186
165
145
134
2,075 40
2.0%
2014/15 38
150
155
176
166
171
182
180
147
2,201
126
6.1%
2015/16 9 47
183
157
175
181
190
185
2,353
6.9%
2016/17 8 32
200
178
163
179
192
203
195
160
2,378 25
1.1%
2017/18
212
188
189
193
204
207
201
158
2,480
102
4.3%
2018/19
205
248
197
172
208
226
2,661
7.3%
2019/20
251
233
246
258
209
213
217
236
196
2,894
8.8%
2020/21
289
301
280
256
273
230
244
234
219
3,188
294
10.2%
2021/22
347
332
331
300
238
229
242
214
3,522
334
10.5%
2022/23
399
409
382
345
312
310
224
276
227
221
3,935
413
11.7%
2023/24
423
469
450
405
348
343
311
335
271
252
274
220
4,370
435
11.1%
2024/25
465
499
525
464
415
383
355
336
305
250
265
215
4,872
502
11.5%
2025/26
530
548
584
536
478
457
396
356
400
303
259
5,512
640
13.1%
2026/27
557
625
603
605
549
526
473
427
406
401
397
293
237
6,139
627
11.4%
*Yellow box = largest grade per year
*Green box = second largest grade per year
Celina ISD may enroll more than 2,600 students by 2018, and more than 3,000 by 2020
5 year growth = 1,144 students
2021/22 enrollment = 3,522
10 year growth = 3,761 students
2026/27 enrollment = 6,139

8. New Boundary Criteria
Attendance areas should be largely contiguous and create clear divisions of boundaries such as highways, subdivisions, bodies of water and natural land marks
Neighborhoods should be assigned to the same school
Transportation routes should be as efficient as possible, giving consideration to minimal ride times within established boundaries
Attendance zone plans should be designed to serve the district 3 to 5 years without additional boundary changes
Allow for initially smaller school populations in schools with higher than anticipated growth rates
Least amount of moved student

9. New Boundary Map
Least amount of moved student

10. New Boundary Projections
Complete new elementary campus East of Carter Ranch
Convert Celina Intermediate in to an early childhood center for all EE-K
New elementary campus and current Celina Elementary will house 1st – 5th graders
Celina MS becomes 6th grade center
Celina JH and HS remain at current configuration
Least amount of moved student