1. ASRC, University at Albany
ACHIEVING
VERY HIGH
SOLAR PENETRATION
Richard Perez
ASRC, University at Albany

2. A Vast Resource Total energy emitted by sun = 3.8 x1026 Watts
Source: earth NASA, sun: wikipedia
Total energy emitted by sun = 3.8 x1026 Watts
380,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 Watts
A Vast Resource
© Richard Perez et al., ASRC

3. Total energy emitted by sun = 3.8 x1026 Watts
1,367 W/m2 ± 3%
150,000,000 km
63,000,000 W/m2
© Richard Perez et al., ASRC

4. Surface Mean: 170 W/m2
77,000,000,000,000,000 W
SOLAR10
23,000 TWy per year
1 TWy = 8.76 Trillion kWh
Emerged Continents only
63,000,000 W/m2
© Richard Perez et al., ASRC

5. SOLAR10 23,000 TWy per year SOLAR10 23,000 TWy per year WIND1,2 60-120
renewable
finite
WIND1,2
60-120
per year
Waves11,3
0.2-2
215
total
SOLAR10
23,000 TWy per year
SOLAR10
23,000 TWy per year
Natural Gas 1,8
3 -11 per year
240
total
OTEC1,4
Petroleum 1,8
2 – 6 per year
Biomass 1,5
2016 World energy use 18 TWy per year
3 – 4 per year
90-300
Total
HYDRO 1,6
0.3 – 2 per year
TIDES 1
2050: 28 TWy
Geothermal1,7
0.3 per year
Uranium 1,9
900
Total reserve
© R. Perez et al.
COAL 1,8
© Richard Perez, et al. 5 5 5

6. SHALE SOLAR10 23,000 TWy per year SOLAR10 23,000 TWy per year WIND1,2
renewable
finite
WIND1,2
60-120
per year
Waves11,3
0.2-2
215
total
330
total
SOLAR10
23,000 TWy per year
SOLAR10
23,000 TWy per year
Natural Gas 1,8
SHALE
3 -11 per year
310
total
240
total
OTEC1,4
Petroleum 1,8
2 – 6 per year
Biomass 1,5
2016 World energy use 18 TWy per year
3 – 4 per year
90-300
Total
HYDRO 1,6
0.3 – 2 per year
TIDES 1
2050: 28 TWy
Geothermal1,7
0.3 per year
Uranium 1,9
900
Total reserve
© R. Perez et al.
COAL 1,8
© Richard Perez, et al. 6 6 6

7. COP 21: We must leave 80% of fossil in the ground
renewable
finite
WIND1,2
70-120
per year
Waves11,3
0.2-2
215
total
330
total
SOLAR10
23,000 per year
Natural Gas 1,8
SHALE
3 -11 per year
240
total
310
total
OTEC1,4
Petroleum 1,8
2 – 6 per year
2009 World energy use 16 TWy per year
Biomass 1,5
3 – 4 per year
90-300
Total
HYDRO 1,6
0.3 – 2 per year
TIDES 1
Geothermal1,7
2050: 28 TW
0.3 per year
Uranium 1,9
900
Total reserve
© R. Perez et al.
COAL 1,8
© Richard Perez, et al. 7 7 7

8. COP 21: We must leave 80% of fossil in the ground66
usable
330
total
SOLAR10
23,000 per year
Natural Gas 1,8
SHALE 62
usable
310
total
Petroleum 1,8
90-300
Total
Uranium 1,9
180
usable
900
Total reserve
© R. Perez et al.
COAL 1,8
© Richard Perez, et al. 8 8 8

9. CHEAP SOLAR
BIG SOLAR
© Richard Perez, et al.

10. Installations by country 2011
© Richard Perez, et al.

11. IEA Projections
© Richard Perez, et al.

12. INTERMITTENT SOLAR CHEAP SOLAR GHI Power grid demand
© Richard Perez, et al.

13. INTERMITTENT SOLAR
One Year
Eastern US
© Richard Perez, et al.

14. New York City electrical demand
VARIABLE GENERATION
BASE LOAD
© ASRC
© Richard Perez, et al.

15. New York City electrical demand Low penetration solar: very effective
Solar generation
VARIABLE GENERATION
BASE LOAD
© ASRC.
© Richard Perez, et al.

16. 100% SOLAR? New York City electrical demand
High penetration solar: Problems
New York City electrical demand
High penetration solar: Solutions?
Solar generation
Unmet load
100% SOLAR?
BASE LOAD
Excess PV must be stored or lost
© ASRC.
© Richard Perez, et al.

17. H2 STORAGE Batteries & Flow batteries Compressed air
Pumped hydro & gravity
© Richard Perez, et al.

18. 2. LOAD SHAPING Solar generation Unmet load BASE LOAD
© Richard Perez, et al.

19. 2. LOAD SHAPING Solar generation Unmet load BASE LOAD
© Richard Perez, et al.

20. 2. LOAD SHAPING Solar generation Unmet load BASE LOAD
© Richard Perez, et al.

21. 2. LOAD SHAPING Solar generation Unmet load BASE LOAD
© Richard Perez, et al.

22. 2. LOAD SHAPING Solar generation Unmet load BASE LOAD
© Richard Perez, et al.

23. 2. LOAD SHAPING Solar generation Unmet load BASE LOAD
© Richard Perez, et al.

24. 3. INTERCONNECTION SINGLE CITY MULTI-STATE © Richard Perez, et al.
Source: Marc Perez, Columbia University
SINGLE CITY
Source: Marc Perez, Columbia University
MULTI-STATE
© Marc Perez, Columbia U.
Source: Marc Perez, Columbia University
© Richard Perez, et al.

25. 4. OVERBUILDING & CURTAILMENT
Source: Marc Perez, Columbia University
SINGLE CITY
50% energy curtailment $
© Richard Perez, et al.

26. STORAGE
LOAD SHAPING $ $
OVERBUILDING
& CURTAILMENT
INTERCONNECTION

27. ENABLING SOLAR 100% at a cost of
COST OF DELIVERING BASELOAD OUTPUT WITH PV IN CENTRAL US
Source M. Perez, U. Columbia & IEA SHCP Task 8
Storage
LCOE
$1.12
Geographic dispersion
USD/kWh
Overbuild + curtail
$0.71
USD1/W
Demand-Side Mgmt.
$0.28
$0.23
$0.18
ENABLING SOLAR 100% at a cost of
< 8¢/kWh
$0.08
© Marc Perez, et al.

28. ENABLING SOLAR 100% at a cost of
NEW THINKING ON [SOLAR] ELECTRIC REMUNERATION
Currently we have marginal systems: NEM, VOST, auto-consumption
Promoting customer ownership/decision-making
Valued by avoided cost
Implying, but not fostering strong enabling grid resources
GRID REACTIVE PV
PV growth
ENABLING SOLAR 100% at a cost of
< 8¢/kWh ?
Grid
GRID PRO-ACTIVE
New supply-side solar remuneration based on:
Cost of solar
Cost of high penetration enablers
Promotion of lowest cost systems
© Richard Perez, et al.

29. End goal: < 8c/kWh all-inclusive firm electricity generation cost
With a retail rate of ~ 12-15c/kWh, this leaves 4-7c/kWh for non-energy operations
Grid operators decisions/management
Larger scale systems
Community solar ownership
Smaller customer-sited units for emergency reliability
Marginal remuneration
NEM
30% FedITC
25% NYSITC
NYS rebate $1/Watt
New supply-side solar remuneration based on:
Cost of solar
Cost of high penetration enablers
Promotion of lowest cost systems
© Richard Perez, et al.

30. End goal: < 8c/kWh all-inclusive firm electricity generation cost
With a retail rate of ~ 12-15c/kWh, this leaves 4-7c/kWh for non-energy operations
Grid operators decisions/management
Larger scale systems
Community solar ownership
Smaller customer-sited units for emergency reliability
Grid operator-managed plant
© Marc Perez, et al.
Marginal remuneration
NEM
30% FedITC
25% NYSITC
NYS rebate $1/Watt
New supply-side solar remuneration based on:
Cost of solar
Cost of high penetration enablers
Promotion of lowest cost systems

31. End goal: < 8c/kWh all-inclusive firm electricity generation cost
BIG SOLAR

32. Coal Natural Gas Uranium Petroleum 32 32 32 Biomass solar WIND
© Richard Perez
© Richard Perez, et al. 32 32 32