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TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT PROGRAMME IN HUNGARY

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Presentation on theme: "TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT PROGRAMME IN HUNGARY"— Presentation transcript:

1 TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT PROGRAMME IN HUNGARY
Ferenc KOVÁTS Chairman of the Steering Committee Bucharest, 26 January 2004 First Caoacity Building Workshop on TF in the Areas of Agriculture and Biotechnologies organised by the CRIMM Foundation under the ForeTech Project

2 EU-15 PRE-ACCESSION COUNTRIES

3 ENLARGEMENT With Enlargement Europe will be by far the largest common market in the world, in purchasing power terms, with a population of over 550 million1. 1 IPTS Futures Reports

4 however, prosperous , stabile and safe
EU cohesion and the competiveness of our continent depends upon the stability of the new members, therefore Eastern Europe must become prosperous , stabile and safe

5 HUNGARIAN FORESIGHT PROGRAMME (TEP)
Main objective: to prepare recommendations for improving long term COMPETITIVENESS of the country QUALITY OF LIFE of the people

6 HUNGARIAN FORESIGHT PROGRAMME (TEP) (cont.)
Launched in Elections: 1998 !; ! Organisation: Steering committee (19) to much! active: 8-10 ! Seven panels (7*25) financing, energy: missing TEP Office 4-6 frequent changes Sponsored by the Ministry of Education. Methods: panel meetings, background studies, scenarios, Delphi-questionnaires, workshops, and seminars, cross-cutting issues Final reports: 7+1 published, Internet: Implementation, dissemination Evaluation

7 HUNGARIAN FORESIGHT PANELS
Human resources (education, employment) Health (life sciences, pharmaceuticals, medical instruments, health care) IT, telecommunications, media Natural and built environment Manufacturing and business processes (new materials, supplier networks, globalisation ...) Agribusiness and food Transport

8 DIFFERENT METHODS Key (Critical) Technologies USA
France (technologies clés) Germany (Technology at the threshold of 21th century) Czech Republic Foresight Japan France Germany UK Sweden Delphi holistic +macro Hungary South-Africa Portugal +panels Austria the Netherlands selected sectors, technologies

9 macro scenarios global and regional scenarios panels’ scenarios

10 STRUCTURE OF MACRO SCENARIOS
Main dimensions: integration knowledge-intensity active strategy vs. drifting Other factors: human societal environmental economic infrastructure political

11 THREE MACRO SCENARIOS global structural changes III fundamental II I
no drifting (no strategy) Hungary’s strategy active

12 GLOBALISATION GLOBALISATION =?= INTEGRATION
GLOBALISATION = INDEPENDENT OF OUR WILL INTEGRATION = OPTION (VOLUNTARY)

13 THE JANUS FACE OF GLOBALISATION
BENEFITS INCREASED TRADE NEW, GLOBAL TECHNOLOGIES FOREIGN INVESTMENTS EXPANDING MEDIA and Internet CONNECTIONS ECONOMIC GROWTH THREATS TO HUMAN SECURITY FINANCIAL VOLATILITY ECONOMIC INSECURITY JOB & INCOME SECURITY HEALTH POLITICAL, PERSONAL, HEALTH INSECURITY ENVIRONMENTAL INSECURITY

14 HOW TO HANDLE GLOBALISATION?
Find the ways of utilising its advantages, reducing the damages. Globalisation offers great opportunities for human advance - but only with stronger governance GOVERNANCE IS NOT MERE GOVERNMENT is the framework of rules, insitutions, established practices that sets limits for the behaviour

15 RECOMMENDATIONS: policy considerations
Long-term programmes should based on consensus: teaching, practicing democracy! Shared responsibilities: govt., businesses, civil society, families, individuals The importance of non-technological issues human resources, regulation, innovation, social disparities

16 (HIERARCHY) RECOMMENDATIONS
GENERIC PRIORITIES BASED ON 300 < (HIERARCHY) RECOMMENDATIONS Compe-titiveness + Quality of life Healthy + educated society Strong economy Human resources Environment Communications infrastructure Organisational system of R&D Funding and management of innovation S&T priorities (life sciences + ICT) Regulation & Policy

17 TEP 2003 Monitoring of the recommendations of the TEP reports for the development of the national innovation system Selection of priorities among the 300< topical recommendations Initiating regional foresight activities “Country Guide” (Preparation of Hungarian version) Evaluation of TEP Participation in the Technology Foresight Summit 2003 (TFS 2003) Foresight Bridge (kick-off meeting as a satellite workshop of TFS 2003) ForeTech

18 25 October 2002, CYPRUS Exploring agricultural policy futures There is no integrated plan as how to deal with the structural changes that will occur as a result of compliance with the aquis, no guiding vision as to what the future could be, and no strategy as to how to arrive at such a future, starting with the post compliance scenario! Expexted outcome of the conference: “Alternative strategic vision for agriculture in the post accession period”

19 INTERNATIONAL ORGANISATIONS
European Commission DIRECTORATE K: TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC RESEARCH FORESIGHT UNIT K1: SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT AND LINKS WITH IPTS FOREN, FORETECH (Bulgaria, Rumania), ‘Eforesee’ (Estonia, Cyprus, Malta) COUNTRY GUIDES FORESIGHT BRIDGE (BG, Cy, CZ, EE, GR, H, MT, RO,) + FoMoFo, STRATA IPTS (Institute for Prospective Technological Sudies): FUTURES PROJECT, ENLARGEMENT PROJECT, ERA

20 INTERNATIONAL ORGANISATIONS (cont.)
United Nations United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) “HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT series from 1990 stopping the mismeasure of human progress Institute for New Technologies of the United Nations University (UNU/INTECH) research and policy-oriented analyses, capacity building in the arena of new technologies; economic and social impacts, especially in relation to the developing countries.

21 UNIDO (United Nations Industrial Development Organisation)
REGIONAL FORESIGHT INITIATIVES FOR BUILDING AWARENESS AND COMMITMENT

22 THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION !


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