1. TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT PROGRAMME IN HUNGARY
Ferenc KOVÁTS
Chairman of the Steering Committee
Bucharest, 26 January 2004
First Caoacity Building Workshop on TF in the Areas of Agriculture and Biotechnologies organised by the CRIMM Foundation under the ForeTech Project

2. EU-15
PRE-ACCESSION COUNTRIES

3. ENLARGEMENT
With Enlargement Europe will be by far the largest common market in the world, in purchasing power terms, with a population of over 550 million1.
1 IPTS Futures Reports

4. however, prosperous , stabile and safe
EU cohesion and the competiveness of our continent depends upon the stability of the new members, therefore Eastern Europe must become
prosperous
, stabile
and safe

5. HUNGARIAN FORESIGHT PROGRAMME (TEP)
Main objective: to prepare recommendations for improving long term
COMPETITIVENESS of the country
QUALITY OF LIFE of the people

6. HUNGARIAN FORESIGHT PROGRAMME (TEP) (cont.)
Launched in Elections: 1998 !; !
Organisation:
Steering committee (19) to much! active: 8-10 !
Seven panels (7*25) financing, energy: missing
TEP Office 4-6 frequent changes
Sponsored by the Ministry of Education.
Methods: panel meetings, background studies, scenarios, Delphi-questionnaires, workshops, and seminars, cross-cutting issues
Final reports: 7+1 published, Internet:
Implementation, dissemination
Evaluation

7. HUNGARIAN FORESIGHT PANELS
Human resources (education, employment)
Health (life sciences, pharmaceuticals, medical instruments, health care)
IT, telecommunications, media
Natural and built environment
Manufacturing and business processes (new materials, supplier networks, globalisation ...)
Agribusiness and food
Transport

8. DIFFERENT METHODS Key (Critical) Technologies USA
France (technologies clés)
Germany (Technology at the threshold of 21th century)
Czech Republic
Foresight
Japan
France
Germany UK
Sweden
Delphi
holistic
+macro
Hungary
South-Africa
Portugal
+panels
Austria
the Netherlands
selected sectors,
technologies

9. macro
scenarios
global and regional
scenarios
panels’ scenarios

10. STRUCTURE OF MACRO SCENARIOS
Main dimensions:
integration
knowledge-intensity
active strategy vs. drifting
Other factors:
human
societal
environmental
economic
infrastructure
political

11. THREE MACRO SCENARIOS global structural changes III fundamental II Ino
drifting (no strategy)
Hungary’s strategy
active

12. GLOBALISATION GLOBALISATION =?= INTEGRATION
GLOBALISATION = INDEPENDENT OF OUR WILL
INTEGRATION = OPTION (VOLUNTARY)

13. THE JANUS FACE OF GLOBALISATION
BENEFITS
INCREASED TRADE
NEW, GLOBAL
TECHNOLOGIES
FOREIGN
INVESTMENTS
EXPANDING
MEDIA and
Internet CONNECTIONS
ECONOMIC GROWTH
THREATS TO HUMAN
SECURITY
FINANCIAL VOLATILITY ECONOMIC INSECURITY
JOB & INCOME SECURITY
HEALTH
POLITICAL, PERSONAL, HEALTH INSECURITY
ENVIRONMENTAL INSECURITY

14. HOW TO HANDLE GLOBALISATION?
Find the ways of utilising its advantages, reducing the damages.
Globalisation offers great opportunities for human advance - but only with
stronger governance
GOVERNANCE IS NOT MERE GOVERNMENT is the framework of rules, insitutions, established practices that sets limits for the behaviour

15. RECOMMENDATIONS: policy considerations
Long-term programmes should based on consensus: teaching, practicing democracy!
Shared responsibilities: govt., businesses, civil society, families, individuals
The importance of non-technological issues
human resources, regulation, innovation, social disparities

16. (HIERARCHY) RECOMMENDATIONS
GENERIC PRIORITIES BASED ON 300 <
(HIERARCHY) RECOMMENDATIONS
Compe-titiveness +
Quality of life
Healthy + educated society
Strong economy
Human resources
Environment
Communications infrastructure
Organisational system of R&D
Funding and management of innovation
S&T priorities (life sciences
+ ICT)
Regulation & Policy

17. TEP 2003
Monitoring of the recommendations of the TEP reports for the development of the national innovation system
Selection of priorities among the 300< topical recommendations
Initiating regional foresight activities
“Country Guide” (Preparation of Hungarian version)
Evaluation of TEP
Participation in the
Technology Foresight Summit 2003 (TFS 2003)
Foresight Bridge (kick-off meeting as a satellite workshop of TFS 2003)
ForeTech

18. 25 October 2002, CYPRUS Exploring agricultural policy futures There is no integrated plan as how to deal with the structural changes that will occur as a result of compliance with the aquis, no guiding vision as to what the future could be, and no strategy as to how to arrive at such a future, starting with the post compliance scenario! Expexted outcome of the conference: “Alternative strategic vision for agriculture in the post accession period”

19. INTERNATIONAL ORGANISATIONS
European Commission
DIRECTORATE K:
TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC RESEARCH
FORESIGHT UNIT K1:
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT AND LINKS WITH IPTS
FOREN, FORETECH (Bulgaria, Rumania), ‘Eforesee’ (Estonia, Cyprus, Malta)
COUNTRY GUIDES
FORESIGHT BRIDGE (BG, Cy, CZ, EE, GR, H, MT, RO,) + FoMoFo, STRATA
IPTS (Institute for Prospective Technological Sudies):
FUTURES PROJECT, ENLARGEMENT PROJECT, ERA

20. INTERNATIONAL ORGANISATIONS (cont.)
United Nations
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)
“HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT series from 1990
stopping the mismeasure of human progress
Institute for New Technologies of the United Nations
University (UNU/INTECH)
research and policy-oriented analyses, capacity building in the arena of new
technologies;
economic and social impacts, especially in relation to the developing
countries.

21. UNIDO (United Nations Industrial Development Organisation)
REGIONAL FORESIGHT INITIATIVES FOR
BUILDING AWARENESS AND
COMMITMENT

22. THANKS
FOR YOUR ATTENTION !