Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Did Election 2016 Break Campaign Finance?

Published byCalvin O’Neal’ Modified over 7 years ago

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Did Election 2016 Break Campaign Finance?"— Presentation transcript:

1 Did Election 2016 Break Campaign Finance?
Wesleyan Media Project Post-Election Conference Prof. Jennifer Nicoll Victor Schar School of Policy and Government George Mason University @jennifernvictor December 5, 2016

2 Unconventional Election
Standard indicators did not predict the winner Standard indicators predicted the candidate that got more votes Money is increasingly prominent but is less deterministic Campaign assets are increasingly difficult to track Implications

3 Conventional indicators were unidirectional

4 Clinton never trailed (national aggregate)
Clinton won popular vote Source: Pollster.com

5 Polls were wrong (Trump support; some states)
Polls are accurate predictors of Clinton vote Polls consistently underestimate Trump vote Mischiefs of Faction on Vox:

6 endorsements Source: fivethirtyeight.com

7 newspaper endorsements
Source: Thehill.com

8 Trump favorability Source: pollster.com

9 ads Team Clinton aired three times as many ads as Team Trump

10 field offices Clinton had more than twice as many field offices as Trump Source: fivethirtyeight.com

11 Lobbyist Donors to Presidential Candidates
Lobbyists coordinated on Clinton more than any other candidate Source: Center for Responsive Politics, opensecrets.org

12 Clinton raise, spent, and attracted more money
Source: Center for Responsive Politics, opensecrets.org

13 Spending and Vote share: Presidential
Spending is positively correlated with vote share.

14 Spending and Vote share: Senate
Spending is positively correlated with vote share.

15 What do Campaign Receipts Tell Us?
Winning candidates tend to have more money, but candidates may not buy elections because: Incumbents tend to win Incumbents have an easier time raising money Incumbents need less money than challengers to win Donors and candidates tend to share ideology Money signals popularity and strength Source: Center for Responsive Politics, opensecrets.org

16 Breaking the rules Typically, campaign receipts tell us about candidates’ Popularity Loyalties Constituencies The receipts from the presidential winner this year is not revealing. One big difference: earned media

17 Earned media Takes over
Source: MediaQuant

18 Trump earned media swamps Clinton
Across all categories, Trump earns more media Source: MediaQuant

19 Media Value and Vote share*
Media value is negatively associated with vote share. 2016 both candidates are famous and have high unfavorable. *Relationship based on only two election cycles ; 2016 is weird in many ways

20 Campaign finance Landscape
Changes in campaign finance laws have contributed to: Opportunities for outside candidates Partisan polarization Increased participation by monied interests The “privatization” of campaign funding

21 Campaign Finance Laws 1947 Taft-Hartley Act bans corporate and labor contributions 1971 Federal Election Campaign Act (FECA) sets campaign contribution & expenditure limits 1975 FEC Sunoil decision => PAC explosion 1976 Buckley v. Valeo: expenditure limits violate free speech; money is speech 1980s & 1990s “Soft money” becomes common 2002 Bipartisan Campaign Finance Reform Act (BCRA) bans soft money, increases limits on direct contributions 2010 Citizens United v. FEC: lifts restrictions on corporate spending 2010 Speechnow v. FEC allows unlimited contributions to outside groups 2014 McCutcheon v. FEC strikes down overall campaign contribution limits

22 Money Channels HARD MONEY
Direct contributions to candidates (limited and reported) Direct contributions to parties and PACs (limited and reported) SOFT MONEY 501(c) Non-profit outside groups, unlimited and non-reported Super PACs Can raise and spend unlimited for candidates, must report donors LLCs unregulated

23 Outside spending explosion
In 2016 in 33 Congressional races outside groups spent more than candidate campaigns. Of top 10 Senate races in 2014, nearly 60% of money was from outside groups. Source: Center for Responsive Politics, opensecrets.org

24 Outside spending Super PACs grow after 2010.
“Dark Money” grows in the recent cycle mostly through 501(c)s Source: Center for Responsive Politics, opensecrets.org

25 Super PACs By Disclosure By Recipient Party By Group Ideology
Source: Center for Responsive Politics, opensecrets.org

26 Dark money explosion* In first year of 2016 cycle dark money was 10x more than it was at the same point in 2012 *2016 will not be updated until sometime in 2017 when IRS disclosures are available Source: Center for Responsive Politics, opensecrets.org

27 Dark money explosion* *2016 will not be updated until sometime in 2017 when IRS disclosures are available Source: Center for Responsive Politics, opensecrets.org

28 implications Quantifiable, dynamic indicators point toward Clinton advantage Fundamentals point to moderate Trump advantage Institutions matter Electoral college elevates importance of votes from low population areas Campaign Finance landscape creates incentives for outsiders to donate and run Finance laws weaken party apparatus creating opportunities for unconventional candidates Elections outsourced to highest bidders These changes contribute to partisan polarization

29 Source: Crystalball, Larry Sabato

30 Implications In a system where money flows from centralized sources, it is predictive of outcomes. In a system where financing is decentralized, money is less coordinated and contributes to determining outcomes. If unconventional candidates follow Trump’s example and win, then broke campaign finance. But it’s just as likely that campaign finance broke 2016.

31 EXTRA SLIDES

32 The Farmer’s Revolt OR the Democrats’ malaise
How elections are won: Turnout. Turnout. Turnout. Republicans were more enthusiastic about their nominee than Democrats were about theirs. Compare to 2012

33 2016 Turnout was low Vox.com

34 2016 voter turnout favored Republicans
2016 voter turnout favored Republicans. Democrats did not engage like they did in 2012. Source: CNN

35 Older, white, Northerners moving to Republicans; nonwhite Southwest moving to Democrats
Source: Washington Post/ Associated press

36 Non-college educated whites turned out, compared to 2012
The greater the density of whites without a college degree, the greater the swing to Trump, versus 2012. Source: Washington Post/ Associated press

37 How have our politics changed
Parties are weak Republican elites failed to prevent an outsider from gaining their parties nomination Partisanship is strong Unusual & dangerous combination Mischiefs of Faction on Vox.com CNN exit polls

38 How our politics have changed: parties II
2016: Social/racial dimension grows in importance Predict: Blue party begins to adopt more economic conservative policies (trade?) Are parties realigning their voter coalitions? Predict: Red party becomes more populist Mischiefs of Faction on Vox.com

Download ppt "Did Election 2016 Break Campaign Finance?"

Similar presentations

Unit 3.2: Electoral Process

Unit 3.2: Electoral Process
CHAPTER 14 Campaigns and Elections

CHAPTER 14 Campaigns and Elections
CHAPTER 14 The Campaign Process. Nomination Process Once a candidate declares his/her intention to run their focus is on winning the nomination of their.

CHAPTER 14 The Campaign Process. Nomination Process Once a candidate declares his/her intention to run their focus is on winning the nomination of their.
Campaign Finance. 1972/1974 Federal Election Campaign Act (FECA) Creates the FEC –federal election commission to regulate, oversee and enforce campaign.

Campaign Finance. 1972/1974 Federal Election Campaign Act (FECA) Creates the FEC –federal election commission to regulate, oversee and enforce campaign.
THE CAMPAIGN PROCESS Chapter 12 O’Connor and Sabato

THE CAMPAIGN PROCESS Chapter 12 O’Connor and Sabato
Campaign Finance. Why is money necessary to political campaigns? Why is money in campaigns problematic for representative democracy? Can we restrict money.

Campaign Finance. Why is money necessary to political campaigns? Why is money in campaigns problematic for representative democracy? Can we restrict money.
Financing Campaigns. Running for office is very expensive; for example, presidential candidates spend about 1 billion dollars each in the 2012 election.

Financing Campaigns. Running for office is very expensive; for example, presidential candidates spend about 1 billion dollars each in the 2012 election.
8 Campaigns and Elections Democracy in Action.

8 Campaigns and Elections Democracy in Action.
Chapter Ten: Campaigning for Office 1. Learning Objectives Identify the reasons people have for seeking public office. Compare and contrast a primary.

Chapter Ten: Campaigning for Office 1. Learning Objectives Identify the reasons people have for seeking public office. Compare and contrast a primary.
Campaigns and Elections Chapter 9. Elections Do Matter 2000 election: Al Gore won national popular vote by 539,947 votes but Bush carried 537 more votes.

Campaigns and Elections Chapter 9. Elections Do Matter 2000 election: Al Gore won national popular vote by 539,947 votes but Bush carried 537 more votes.
 Presidential Primaries  Part private, part public money Federal matching funds for all individuals’ donations of $250 or less (incentive to raise money.

 Presidential Primaries  Part private, part public money Federal matching funds for all individuals’ donations of $250 or less (incentive to raise money.
Incumbents and Elections Free speech and Campaign Finance Reform.

Incumbents and Elections Free speech and Campaign Finance Reform.
What Determines Elections? Linkage Institutions #4.

What Determines Elections? Linkage Institutions #4.
 Presidential Primaries  Part private, part public money Federal matching funds for all individuals’ donations of $250 or less (incentive to raise money.

 Presidential Primaries  Part private, part public money Federal matching funds for all individuals’ donations of $250 or less (incentive to raise money.
Money and Elections Chapter 10, Theme B. Pop Quiz 10 1. Name 1 of 2 groups that have been banned from contributing to candidates since 1925? 2. What scandal.

Money and Elections Chapter 10, Theme B. Pop Quiz Name 1 of 2 groups that have been banned from contributing to candidates since 1925? 2. What scandal.
THE CAMPAIGN PROCESS Chapter 14 O’Connor and Sabato American Government: Continuity and Change.

THE CAMPAIGN PROCESS Chapter 14 O’Connor and Sabato American Government: Continuity and Change.
NOMINATIONS AND CAMPAIGNS CHAPTER 8/10. THE NOMINATION GAME Nomination:  The official endorsement of a candidate for office by a political party.

NOMINATIONS AND CAMPAIGNS CHAPTER 8/10. THE NOMINATION GAME Nomination:  The official endorsement of a candidate for office by a political party.
Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.10 | 1 Presidential v. Congressional Campaigns There is more voter participation in presidential.

Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.10 | 1 Presidential v. Congressional Campaigns There is more voter participation in presidential.
Campaigns The Message and the Money. The Media and Campaigns Campaigns attempt to gain favorable media coverage: Isolation of candidate (Biden, Palin)

Campaigns The Message and the Money. The Media and Campaigns Campaigns attempt to gain favorable media coverage: Isolation of candidate (Biden, Palin)
 Presidential Primaries  Part private, part public money Federal matching funds for all individuals’ donations of $250 or less (incentive to raise money.

 Presidential Primaries  Part private, part public money Federal matching funds for all individuals’ donations of $250 or less (incentive to raise money.

Similar presentations

Ads by Google