1. Stockton/San Joaquin County Ceasefire Summary & Update August 2013
SOMETHING IN TITLE RE SUCCEEDING IN OAKLAND?

2. The context: summary
Over the past 28 years, Stockton has averaged 40 homicides per year. Its violent crime rate is consistently double – and sometimes more than triple – the state average.
Over the past five years, homicides have reached an average of 47 per year and a high of 71.
Anthony Braga, a criminologist at Harvard and Rutgers University, found that during the implementation of “Ceasefire I” in Stockton ( ), overall homicide was reduced by 43%.
This was the longest period of sustained reductions in the past 28 years.
During that period, homicides averaged 31 per year.
(Today we’ll be talking about Ceasefire II.)

3. The context: violent crime in Stockton

4. Context: Groups play a key role
Historically, gangs, sets, crews and other groups play a significant role in violent crime in Stockton.
These active groups and individuals play a role in over 60% and up to 80% of the homicides in Stockton.
There are 34+/- groups citywide, but over the past two years only 18 have been actively violent.
These 18 groups have a current membership of approximately 700 – even fewer of these individuals are at very highest risk of violence at any one time.

5. Findings: Summary of group member-involved violence

6. Ceasefire: the Research
12/19/2017
Ceasefire: the Research
Study Main Outcome
Boston Operation Ceasefire -63% youth homicide
Indianapolis IVRP % total homicide
Stockton Operation Peacekeeper -42% gun homicide
Lowell PSN % gun assaults
Cincinnati CIRV % GMI homicide, -22% nonfatal shootings
Newark Ceasefire No sig. reduction in gunshot wound incidents
LA Operation Ceasefire Sig. short-term reduction in violent, gun crime
Chicago PSN % homicide, -30% recidivism rate
High Point DMIs of 4 neighborhoods had -44%-56% in part I UCR crime; all up to -74% in drug offenses
Nashville DMI % reduction in drug offenses
Rockford DMI % non-violent offenses
Hawaii HOPE % recidivism rate
Boston Re-entry Init % recidivism for violent crime

7. Ceasefire: the research (2)
Effective – imagine flipping a coin 13 times & getting heads 12 times – effective across different cities, groups & economic conditions.
Driven by communication: Makes highest-risk individuals & groups aware of the personal & community costs involved in violence by sharing in a direct, respectful manner.
Ceasefire’s hard. Many cities that start fail to fully implement/sustain. Long term correlations between quality of implementation & results (Boston, Cincinnati).

8. The role of direct communication
Percentage decrease in Log(Homicide Rate) associated with a one-unit increase in PSN “treatment” -1
-40.1
-2.2
-2.7
-0.8
-11
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10 -5 5 10
Control
Variables
Forums
Gun
Recoveries
Prosecutions
Sentence
Length
Combined
Effect
Numbers are meaningless here….point is the magnitude: forums having biggest effect. BUT, remember that this is a PER GUN number. Translated in English: 100 guns = 1 body. That’s actually pretty big if you consider Chi recovers an AVERAGE of 14,000 guns a year.
In Chicago, the impact of direct communication (“call-ins”) on violence was the most powerful part of the strategy.
**N.B.: Random Effects Poisson Regression

9. What we mean by “communication”
SMALL MEETINGS: “CALL INS”
Places of community importance: churches, community centers. Seating: square or circle.
Highest-risk young men (& families, supporters):
Neighborhood leaders, formerly incarcerated, LE speak: 8-10, to the point (3-4 mins), 1 hr max.
Message: we care about & respect you, cost of violence to them & community (including consequences): no lectures/scare tactics: clearly stated that violence must stop
SCP

10. Call-Ins: The Basic Set Up
Supporters
Time-keeper

11. Call-ins: Speaker Order
CO-HOSTS: CLERGY LEADER, POLICE CHIEF
FORMERLY-INCARCERATED COMMUNITY LEADER
FORMERLY- INCARCERATED COMMUNITY LEADER
CLERGY/SPIRITUAL LEADER
VICTIM OF VIOLENCE
HIGH SCHOOL PRINCIPAL
PD REP
DISTRICT ATTORNEY:
PROBATION OFFICER:
US ATTORNEY:
CO-HOSTS: SUMMARIZE MESSAGING…
(…TRANSITION TO DINNER, STATEMENTS OF COMMITMENT BY SERVICE PROVIDERS & CONVERSATIONS W/COMMUNITY VOLUNTEERS)
45 Min TOTAL

12. Implementation update, early results
Night walks begin in fall 2012.
One-on-one Ceasefire messaging begins in mid- November 2012.
Call-ins convened on April 11 & August 8, with next scheduled for November 2013
(Analysis is ongoing, including May 7, SPD/Probation Dept. Social Network Analysis workshop w/Andrew Papachristos of Yale University.
YTD 2013 homicides are down approx. 60% compared to 2012, YTD non-fatal injury shootings are down approx. 50%.

13. ANALYZE PROBLEM/ ASSESS RESULTS TAILOR APPROACH TO STREET DYNAMIC
Next steps: institutionalize & expand reach, with continued focus on core implementation cycle
ANALYZE PROBLEM/ ASSESS RESULTS
TAILOR APPROACH TO STREET DYNAMIC
COMMUNICATE
FOLLOW THROUGH