1. E-Mobility Challenges and Opportunities
Karoline Augenstein, Wuppertal Institut
E-Mobility Challenges and Opportunities
Managing Decarbonization| October 2016 | Vancouver

2. E-mobility and the Status Quo: Challenges and Opportunities
vs.
Challenges
Energy transition
E-Mobility
Mobility transition
Storage space for renewable energy
Decarbonized transport
Innovation and infrastructure
New business models
Number of new EV registrations in Germany
Fuel type
Vehicle stock (2016)
Percentage share (2016)
Gasoline
29,825,223
66%
Diesel
14,532,426
32%
LPG
475,711 1%
CNG
80,300
0.2%
Electric
25,502
0.06%
Hybrid
130,365
0.3%
Passenger car stock by fuel type in Germany 1/2016
Source: KBA/Statista (2016)
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3. E-mobility: Perspectives on decarbonization and sustainable mobility
Can the introduction and diffusion of electric vehicles provide a solution to sustainability problems?
Problems with the diffusion of electric vehicles:
High production costs and sales price
Limited range
Lacking infrastructure
Diffusion of electric vehicles is not sufficient:
Renewable energy sources are needed
Resource use aspects need to be addressed
Congestion in urban areas needs to be tackled
What is the potential for e-mobility to emerge as a sustainable system innovation?
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4. The concept of system innovation
“A system innovation can be understood as a change from one socio-technical system to another.
One aspect of a system innovation is technological substitution, the replacement of old by new technology.
The second aspect is co-evolution. System innovations not only involve technological substitutions, but also changes in elements such as user practices, regulation, industrial networks, infrastructure, and cultural meaning.
The third aspect is the emergence of new functionalities.”
(Geels, 2004, p. 19 f.)
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5. Analyzing system innovation: Multi-Level Perspective on Transitions
Source: Multi-level perspective on transitions (Geels/Schot, 2010, p. 25)
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6. Integrated Framework: Transformative Capacity for system innovation
of new technologies
Determined by changes of the:
technological profile;
(in)formal institutions;
patterns of interaction;
system boundaries.
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7. Integrated Framework: Transformative Capacity for system innovation
of new technologies
System Adaptability
Determined by changes of the:
technological profile;
(in)formal institutions;
patterns of interaction;
system boundaries.
Determined by tensions in the regime:
within rule systems: interpretive schemes, norms and guiding principles;
within patterns of resource allocation: power constellations, distribution of economic and political power.
10/28/2016
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8. Integrated Framework: Transformative Capacity for system innovation
of new technologies
System Adaptability
Determined by changes of the:
technological profile;
(in)formal institutions;
patterns of interaction;
system boundaries.
Determined by tensions in the regime:
within rule systems: interpretive schemes, norms and guiding principles;
within patterns of resource allocation: power constellations, distribution of economic and political power.
Patterns of Transformation
System Innovation
Unit of analysis: socio-technical regime
System innovation defined as regime change
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9. E-Mobility and the case of Germany
Hype and disappointment in the past
New momentum since around 2007
Energy transition/“Energiewende”
Advances in battery technology
Economic crisis and pressure on the automotive industry
Political pressure at the EU level
National Development Plan for Electric Mobility (2009)
Electric Mobility in Model Regions ( )
Electric Mobility Showcases ( )
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10. Political goals and national funding programmes for E-Mobility in Germany – increasing system adaptability?
National Platform Electric Mobility (NPE)
“Traditional” approach to innovation and dominated by industry incumbents.
Power train technology
Framework conditions
National Platform E-Mobility
Battery technology
Education/Qualification
Infrastructure/Grid integration
Standardization/Certification
Materials/Recycling
10/28/2016
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11. Political goals and national funding programmes for E-Mobility in Germany – increasing system adaptability?
National Platform Electric Mobility (NPE)
“Traditional” approach to innovation and dominated by industry incumbents.
Electric Mobility in Model Regions
Less than 50% of public funding goes to “system-innovative” projects.
Power train technology
Framework conditions
National Platform E-Mobility
Battery technology
Education/Qualification
Infrastructure/Grid integration
Standardization/Certification
Materials/Recycling
10/28/2016
MD Conference

12. Political goals and national funding programmes for E-Mobility in Germany – increasing system adaptability?
National Platform Electric Mobility (NPE)
“Traditional” approach to innovation and dominated by industry incumbents.
Electric Mobility in Model Regions
Less than 50% of public funding goes to “system-innovative” projects.
Power train technology
Framework conditions
National Platform E-Mobility
Battery technology
Education/Qualification
Infrastructure/Grid integration
Standardization/Certification
Materials/Recycling
Electric Mobility Showcases
Critical mass of vehicles to be deployed
More systemic approach, e.g. focus on intermodality, fleet applications, urban planning, integration via ICT
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13. Discourses around e-mobility: Conflicting goals
Positive discourse on future perspectives of e-mobility
“Win-win”: sustainability and industry transition
Sector convergence (automotive – energy – ICT)
Focus on intermodal mobility concepts as the solution to price, range and charging problems
Discrepancy between future visions and current strategies
Focus on technological innovation (battery and vehicle technology) as the solution to price, range and charging problems
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14. Lessons learnt from the German case
Potential for system innovation is emerging in Showcase Region Projects:
Expected patterns of cooperation between automotive, energy and ICT actors hardly emerge.
Potential for system innovation is more likely to be found in projects carried out by “outsiders” (e.g. housing companies, public transport companies, municipal actors and associations).
A crucial role is played by coordinating agencies facilitating stable networks in an innovation system.
System adaptability appears to increase not by (incumbent) cross-sector cooperation or typical niche actors, but rather through the involvement of “powerful outsiders”.
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15. E-mobility – a “captured niche“?
Initiated “top-down” with high influence of established actors, strategically positioning themselves in the niche.
Funding instruments aim at technological development and demonstration – rather than experiments.
Potential for system innovation emerges where:
Specific funding programs have a more systemic outlook
Powerful outsiders are involved
Coordinating actors have a relevant influence
Analyzing system innovations requires a good understanding of socio- technical co-evolution.
New perspective on technological shortcomings of electric cars: indicating transformative capacity.
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16. Thank you!
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