1. Towards transforming mixed farming systems in Southern Africa:
Pathways and adaptation options for current and future climates
Sisito, G., Wengawenga, M., Gungulo, A., Francis, B., Senda, T., Rurinda, J., Masikati, P., Descheemaeker, K., Mlilo, H., Crespo, O., Homann-Kee Tui, S.
1. Introduction
2. The AgMIP CLIP approach
In Southern Africa, vulnerability of smallholder farming systems is likely to increase due to combination of rising temperatures and changing rainfall. Low production and climate risk are bottlenecks in current farming systems.
Multi-modeling allows unpacking the complexity of these systems and to identify promising adaptation options. Engaging stakeholders in scenario design and impact analyses helps distilling interventions that can enable transitions to desired futures.
Farming systems are diverse and heterogeneous. Multiple drivers shape their development. Interventions for sustainable intensification, that also strengthen resilience, as the long term capacity of these systems to adapt to various shocks, such as climate, therefore have to respond to context specific conditions.
In the AgMIP Crop Livestock Intensification Project (CLIP), we assess the effects of climate change and possible adaptation options for different farming systems: Mzimba in Northern Malawi geared towards intensive crop production, Nkayi in Central Zimbabwe with more integrated crop and livestock farming systems, and extensive farming in Sussundenga, Central Mozambique. For each farming system we explore future scenarios (RAPS) and adaptation options, and assess vulnerability, gains and losses for different farm types.
The results will inform pathways for improving food security and income in smallholder communities through better integration of crops and livestock. Stakeholder engagement in scenario design and interpretation will influence decisions towards desirable farming future.
Iterative cycle of scenario development for system redesign, with incremental and transformative change options
Modeling Framework for the integrated assessment of climate impact and adaptation
Research questions, with inputs from researchers and stakeholders
Transformative
Incremental
We engage stakeholders to develop and evaluate relevant climate change scenarios and adaptation options:
Future scenarios
- SSPs and RAPs project different economic, policy and institutional situations in a future world.
Several climate scenarios (RCPs, GCMs) project different effects of climate change.
Adaptation options
Diversification into food, feed and cash legumes, improved drought tolerant crop varieties, low-risk soil fertility amendment, livestock feeding.
Multi-model framework
- Integrate climate, crop, livestock and economic modeling to represent changes on entire farm households.
- Assess impacts of climate variability and change and adaptation options for context specific solutions and tailored to farm types.
- Prioritize interventions towards more sustainable and resilient agricultural systems while recognizing possible effects of socio-economic and bio-physical drivers.
Research questions
Q1: What is the sensitivity of current agricultural production systems to climate change?
Q2: What are benefits of interventions in current agricultural systems?
Q3: What will be the impact of climate change on future agricultural production systems?
Q4: What are the benefits of climate change adaptation options?
CLIP project sites
3. Farming systems characteristics
4. Pathways for sustainable intensification
RAP 4 parameters at project sites
We acknowledge that smallholder farming systems are complex, with multiple sub-systems crops, livestock, grazing lands, and multiple segments and linkages. Multiple benefits can hence be derived from diversification, integration, intensification. Rural communities are also heterogeneous, with different resource endowments representing different capacities and priorities. Climate change adaptations have therefore to respond to the context and farm specific conditions and major drivers.
Complex smallholder farming systems
Future non-climate biophysical and socio-economic trends were investigated, assessing RAPs with experts at each site, plausible stories about future farming, key drivers quantified for integrated modeling. Comparison of RAP 4 across the sites illustrates different pathways for sustainable intensification:
Nkayi, Zimbabwe: Better access to input and output markets and services will motivate farmers to increase production. Farmers can transition from currently low input low output subsistence farming systems towards intensified farming systems, through diversification in food, feed and cash legumes, integration of multiple uses of crops and livestock, use of low risk soil fertility amendments and livestock feed.
Mzimba, Malawi: Increasing demand for meat products imply strong opportunties for livestock. Enhancing crop livestock integration for efficient resource utilization is an option, where biomass is less limiting. Farmers with cattle are likely to intensify integrated crop and livestock systems, those without focus on intensifying maize and groundnut production and improve goat production to markets.
Sussundenga, Mozambique: Growth potential is high, yet low investment capacities restrict farmers benefiting from market opportunities. Farmers with cattle are in a better position to increase agricultural production, by better integrating crops and livestock.
Indicators
Zim-babwe
Malawi
Mozam-bique
Explanations
Input subsidies
+ +
- - +
Few targeted in Zimbabwe; support lower value chain segment in Mozambique; perceived unsustainable in Malawi
Size of cultivated land -
Intensified production on less land where pressure is high, Increased population growth in Malawi land allocate for resettlement
Proportion of legumes ++
Expansion of legumes through market incentives
Herd size
+ + +
Improved feed and management, demand and policy driven
Input prices
More players in processing industry against higher demand for inputs, Mozambique more supply players cause reduction
Input use
Market incentives, pressure to intensify, investment security, appropriate support
Crop output prices
Increasing demand and production, imports keep price growth low
Livestock output prices
High and unmet demand for livestock products, increasing livestock production
Off-farm income
Mitigation against low production in Zimbabwe, vs growing mining / manufacturing industries in Malawi and Mozambique
Nkayi, Zimbabwe: integrated crop-livestock systems with low rainfall and human population density, limited investment in agricultural development, croplands expanded heavily and crop fields are relatively large, but yields are still low. High livestock mortality rates associated with feed shortages are major bottlenecks. Adoption of improved feed technologies is low, hence crop residues are a critical dry season feed.
Mzimba, Malawi: intensified crop-oriented farming, with higher rainfall and human population density, farm input subsidy program favoring farmers’ investment in maize and groundnut production. Farmers have relatively small crop fields but achieve higher yields and biomass. Livestock production is less developed, feed shortages less pronounced due to higher biomass production on rangelands and croplands.
Sussundenga, Mozambique: extensive crop-livestock farming with low rainfall and human population density. Farmers’ investments in agriculture are extremely limited. Small grains are the major crops but yields are low. Livestock populations are still very low and productivity is also low.
Farm types at project sites
5. Adaptation options
6. Impacts and recommendations
Key messages, based on preliminary results on impacts of sustainable intensification options in Nkayi district, Zimbabwe:
Farmers in Nkayi district are already vulnerable to consequences of climate hazards. Climate change would bring about two thirds of the population in a worse situation, as they already are.
Options for sustainable intensification would offset impacts of climate change for more than three quarters of the population.
Drastic interventions will improve livelihoods and lift more than half the population out of poverty. A large proportion will however remain stuck in poverty, exposed to climatic risks and other hazards.
In response to the context specific drivers and limitations, researchers in consultation with local experts, and verified with farming communities, identified different sets of promising adaptation options, for each site, for current and future climates.
Adaptation under current climate:
The focus is on diversifying farming systems, market oriented and at low risk. Interventions feasible in the short term, if better support facilities were given, involve these technical components:
Setting more land in use, as market access improves
Change in crop composition, driven by market incentives and knowledge support for legumes
Low risk soil fertility amendment, combination of
Low rates of inorganic fertilizer to intensify food and cash crop production
Organic soil amendment, combining legume-cereal rotation and manure
Drought tolerant high yielding crop varieties
Increased seed densities
Fodder production (mucuna puriens) and greater use of crop residues for feeding livestock
Adaptation to future climate change:
As most interventions are relevant under current climate, adaptation to future climate will evolve around switching to high yielding crop varieties that can tolerate higher temperatures and erratic rainfall.
Interventions have to go beyond food security and climate change, and capacitate farmers towards exploring options for market oriented production and alternative livelihood activities.
Diversification and market incentives can encourage farmers to step up from currently extremely low production to substantially higher volumes for food and sale. Market incentives, organic soil fertility amendment and livestock feed are critical entry points for farmers moving up local development pathways.
Farm households that do not own cattle nor goats tend to struggle to meet their immediate food requirements, with little cushion against the impacts of climate variability and change.
Persistent poverty for a large group of farmers indicates need for opportunities outside agriculture.
Government and agricultural policies will have to play a key role for promoting climate smart, resilient and profitable agriculture, along with effective public and private investments in research and development.
Improving the conditions for farming will support climate change adaptation. Stakeholder engagement is critical, to make farming more attractive.
Testing more drastic solutions for sustainable intensification of farming systems in Nkayi district
1. Matopos Research Institute, Zimbabwe
2. Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources (LUANAR) , Malawi
3. Agricultural Research Institute (IIAM), Mozambique
4. Institute of Development Studies, National University of Science and Technology (IDS-NUST). Bulawayo, Zimbabwe
5. University of Zimbabwe, UZ, Zimbabwe
6. World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Zambia
7. Plant production systems, Wageningen University, The Netherlands
8. Climate System Analysis Group, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, South Africa
9. International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-arid Tropics (ICRISAT), Zimbabwe