1. Oceanic Observation and Typhoon Forecast in CMA
Xiaoxia Li, Meteorological Observation Center, CMA
Hua Gu , National Meteorological Center, CMA
NPOMS-4, Busan Korea, 2-4 November 2015

2. Outline
Oceanic Observation
Typhoon Forecast

3. Oceanic Observation in CMA
Oceanic observations in CMA mainly rely on the following ways:
Moored buoys
The Coastal-Marine Automated Weather Station(AWS)
Shipping AWS
Weather radars、 Wind profiler radars、GNSS/MET stations、Synthesized experiment bases、satellites and so on.

4. Moored buoy
There are approximately 31 moored buoys.
They are deployed in the coastal and offshore waters, mainly within 200km.

5. 3-meter moored buoy(Dalian)
10-meter moored buoy(Hebei)
Mainly measure barometric pressure, wind direction, speed, visibility, air and sea temperature, salinity, and wave energy spectra from which significant wave height, dominant wave period, and average wave period are derived. Even the direction of wave propagation is measured on moored buoys.
CMA's moored buoys maily include 2 types: 3-m and 10-m.

6. (2) The Coastal-Marine Automated Weather Station
There are nearly 400 Automated Weather Stations.
It includes stations which located in Coastal-Marine and some oil platforms.
The quantity of the stations on land are more than 1000.

7. AWS station data typically include barometric pressure, wind direction, speed, precipitation, relative humidity, and air temperature; however, some AWS stations are designed to also measure visibility.
Most data are processed and transmitted real-time to users. In addition to the conventional method of data transmission, certain AWS stations are equipped with modems that allow more conveniently transmit.

8. (3) Shipping AWS
There are approximately 50 stations on board.
However, due to complex ship resources and some other reasons, the utilization of shipping AWS is not efficient. It’s important for us to advance.

9. (4) Synthesized experiment base
CMA gradually build synthesized experiment bases in recent years, for example in Maoming, guangdong province.
100-meter iron tower
Total height: 53m
The platform height: 28m

10. (4) Synthesized experiment base(continued)
There are many types of equipment on the experiment base. Such as Wind profiler radar, radiometrics, AWS, visibility equipment, moored buoy, and so on.

11. (5) The designing drift buoy
CMA have no drifters run till now.
We are doing some research in designing the drifters which would meet the observation and forecast requirements.
The drifter would be designed to measure barometric pressure, wind direction, speed, air and sea temperature and salinity.

12. Outline
Oceanic Observation
Typhoon Forecast

13. Typhoon Forecast in CMA
Main tasks of typhoon subjective forecast in CMA
Typhoon monitoring and warning services for Northwest Pacific and the South China Sea
Typhoon Track and Intensity forecasts/GTS reports, fax, bulletins, alerts, newsletters
Bay of Bengal storms monitoring and forecasting 48-h forecasts and bulletins

14. Recent improvements in Typhoon Forecast
1） Enlargement of warning areas
TC Warning Areas in 2013
TC Warning Areas in 2014
Since April 18th 2014, the 24h warning areas entirely includes the South China Sea and 48h warning areas is also enlarged correspondingly.

15. Recent improvements in Typhoon Forecast
2）Increasing forecast frequency during 0-24h
18h
06h
24h
12h

16. Recent improvements in Typhoon Forecast
3）Including gale wind radii analysis in four quadrants
WTPQ BABJ160000
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STS NOGURI 0801 (0801) INITIAL TIME UTC
00HR 13.1N 113.1E 985HPA 75M/S
30KT WINDS 200KM NORTHEAST
180KM SOUTHEAST
150KM SOUTHWEST
120KM NORTHWEST
50KT WINDS 80KM NORTHEAST
80KM SOUTHEAST
80KM SOUTHWEST
80KM NORTHWEST
64KT WINDS 40KM NORTHEAST
40KM SOUTHEAST
40KM SOUTHWEST
40KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WNW 25KM/H
P+06HR 13.9N 113.4E 985HPA 25M/S
P+12HR 15.0N 111.7E 980HPA 30M/S
P+18HR 15.9N 111.2E 980HPA 30M/S
P+24HR 16.4N 110.5E 975HPA 33M/S
P+36HR 17.7N 109.7E 980HPA 30M/S
P+48HR 18.8N 109.1E 985HPA 25M/S
P+60HR 19.7N 109.1E 985HPA 25M/S
P+72HR 20.7N 109.2E 990HPA 23M/S
P+96HR 22.3N 110.1E 995HPA 18M/S
P+120HR 23.8N 111.6E 1000HPA 16M/S
34kt wind radii
50kt wind radii
34kt wind radii
50kt wind radii
65kt wind radii
Before
After

17. Recent improvements in Typhoon Forecast
Before
After

18. Recent improvements in Typhoon Forecast
4）TC intensity certification based on DVORAK technique
Specialized training and workshop on Dvorak technique
Improvements of Satellite monitoring system
Make our operational TCs intensities more reliable

19. Up to 15 Oct. 2015
During the period of , China Meteorological Administration (CMA) has sustained a steadily descending trend for typhoon track forecast errors. As of 15 October 2015, the 24h-120h typhoon track forecast errors were 66 km, 116 km, 174 km, 238 km and 329 km

20. During the period of 1 January to 15 October 2015, the Northwest Pacific and the South China Sea registered 25 tropical cyclones. 6 of them made landfall over China's coastal areas

21. Up to 15 October 2015, 8 tropical cyclones had affected China, and 6 of them made landfall. Typhoon MUJIGAE is the strongest typhoon landed on China in Of the six typhoons, SOUDELOR claimed the most affected population, death toll, missing person, emergency aiding population, damaged home, and MUJIGAE claimed the most direct economic loss.

22. Up to 15 Oct. 2015
Statistics of evacuated people in emergency responses to potential typhoon-induced disasters in 2015

23. Thanks！