1. Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services
December 17, PM ET

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Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

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Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

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Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

6. Presenters Presenters:
Scott Gibbons, Office of Workforce Security, Employment and Training Administration
Chris O’Leary, Senior Economist, Upjohn Institute
Moderator:
Cheryl Atkinson, Administrator, Office of Workforce Security, Employment and Training Administration
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

7. Presentation Context
Reemployment TAT project
WPRS and FDSS are reemployment vehicles
Use best available data to support informed decision making
Stress early intervention
Stress individual attention
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

8. Target claimants through data
How does WPRS work
Worker Profiling: Identify characteristics of claimants who need services
Target claimants through data
Reemployment Services: Refer claimants to services based on claimant needs and capacity
Monitor claimants following intervention
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

9. Resource allocation methodology Funds cannot serve everyone
Rationale for WPRS
Resource allocation methodology
Funds cannot serve everyone
Models prioritize service delivery
Early identification and action
Potential for a win / win situation
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

10. Why Serve WPRS Claimants?
Legal Basis: Public Law (PL)
Practical Basis: they are generally not…
Waiting to be recalled by previous employer
Waiting to be called by union hiring hall
Repeat filers
Seasonal employees
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

11. Why Serve WPRS Claimants?
They generally have:
Long-term attachment to workforce
Successful work history
Longer job tenures
Higher education
Similar industry and occupational profiles
Similar base period earnings
Financial incentives to return to work
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

12. LMI Data, State Data, ES Data, Characteristics… Profiling Model
UI Claimant
First Pay Records
Historical UI Data,
LMI Data, State Data, ES Data,
Characteristics…
Profiling
Model
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

13. Claimant Characteristics Labor Market Information
WPRS Model Variables
Claimant Characteristics
Education, tenure, industry, occupation, etc
Labor Market Information
Ind. & Occ. growth/decline rate, base period wages relative to industry/occupation average, LAUS
Proxies for Job Search Intensity
Wage replacement rate, prior exhaustion history, no. of employers, severance pay
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

14. LMI Data, State Data, ES Data, Characteristics… Profiling Model
UI Claimant
First Pay Records
Historical UI Data,
LMI Data, State Data, ES Data,
Characteristics…
Profiling
Model
State or Local Criteria for
Referral
Claimants Not in Profiling Pool
Claimants in Profiling Pool
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

15. LMI Data, State Data, ES Data, Characteristics… Profiling Model
UI Claimant
First Pay Records
Historical UI Data,
LMI Data, State Data, ES Data,
Characteristics…
Profiling
Model
State or Local Criteria for
Referral
Claimants Not in Profiling Pool
Claimants in Profiling Pool
Service
Capacity
WPRS referrals
To Service
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

16. Total UI Claimants Profiled: 7,384,622
FY08 WPRS Claimant Flows
Total UI Claimants Profiled: 7,384,622
Claimants Eligible for Referral: 3,390,927
Total Referred to Services: 1,187,254
Completing at least one service: 868,271
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

17. Service Delivery UI Claimant First Pay Records Historical UI Data,
LMI Data, State Data, ES Data,
Characteristics…
Profiling
Model
State or Local Criteria for
Referral
Claimants Not in Profiling Pool
Claimants in Profiling Pool
Service
Capacity
WPRS referrals
To Service
Exemptions
Service Delivery
Orientation & Assessment
Placement
Services
Counseling
Self-
Employment
Job Search Workshops
Education and Training
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

18. FY08 WPRS Services Delivered
Orientation: 623,392
Individual Assessment: 442,976
Counseling: 132,238
Placement Services: 410,212
Job Search Workshops: 373,152
Education and Training: 114,132
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

19. Service Delivery UI Claimant First Pay Records Historical UI Data,
LMI Data, State Data, ES Data,
Characteristics…
Profiling
Model
State or Local Criteria for
Referral
Claimants Not in Profiling Pool
Claimants in Profiling Pool
Service
Capacity
WPRS referrals
To Service
Wage
Records
Exemptions
Service Delivery
Reporting
On Service delivery
9048
Outcomes
9049
Orientation & Assessment
Placement
Services
Counseling
Self-
Employment
Job Search Workshops
Education and Training
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

20. Evaluation of Worker Profiling Models
Recent Evaluations
Evaluation of Worker Profiling Models
ETA Occasional Paper:
GAO evaluation of the WPRS system
GAO
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

21. TAT project provides perfect opportunity to refocus these tools
Focus all elements of WPRS on the reemployment goal
Requires a cohesive approach to reemployment through WPRS
System only works if all elements work together
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

22. Based on recent patterns and trends Updating may be sufficient
Referrals to service
For referrals to be timely, objective, and accurate, model must be effective
If referrals are bad, it doesn’t matter if services and service delivery are perfect, results will be suboptimal
Based on recent patterns and trends
Updating may be sufficient
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

23. Claimants must follow through
If states have a good model, determine that a claimant needs help, and claimant refuses…
…they must hold claimants accountable
Many use pending issues for ERP no-shows
Most states will not do this with WPRS
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

24. Provide appropriate services
Needs vary from person to person
States should seek to balance action in light of their overall goal
Serve more claimants less intensively
Serve less claimants more intensively
All actions should be based on claimants’ needs
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

25. Establish Feedback Loops
All components must communicate with and inform other components
WPRS modelers should know what service providers are experiencing
Service providers should know what sort of profile to expect
UI notified if claimant does not attend
Communication is key to making this thing work
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

26. What are we doing to improve reemployment outcomes?
Building new and updated models
Fostering discussion within states about program goals, methods and tools
Looking for ways to fund services
Improving program reporting/assessment
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

27. Innovative Ideas in Targeting Reemployment Service Delivery
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

28. Expanding uses of WPRS scores
Using profiling scores to target ERPs
Using profiling scores to support service delivery decision making
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

29. Weeks of Potential Duration On UI Probability Of Exhaustion
High
(26 weeks)
Low
(8 weeks)
WPRS
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

30. Weeks of Potential Duration On UI Probability Of Exhaustion
High
(26 weeks)
Low
(8 weeks)
REA
WPRS
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

31. Weeks of Potential Duration On UI Probability Of Exhaustion
High
(26 weeks)
Low
(8 weeks)
REA
WPRS
ERP
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

32. Expanding uses of WPRS data
Using demographic and characteristic data
Utilizing LMI, BLS information to help with decision making
Employer driven job referrals
Fault-overpayment models
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

33. Targeting and Assessment From Existing Data
State Program or Service Provider
Preferences
UI Claimant
First Pay Records
Historical UI Data,
LMI Data, State Data, ES Data,
Characteristics…
Employer Needs
Targeting and Assessment From Existing Data
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

34. Targeting and Assessment From Existing Data
State Program or Service Provider
Preferences
UI Claimant
First Pay Records
Historical UI Data,
LMI Data, State Data, ES Data,
Characteristics…
Employer Needs
Targeting and Assessment From Existing Data
WPRS for
Likely
Exhaustees
Reemployment
Bonuses
Self Employment
Assistance
REAs
Fault Overpayment
Detection
Reemployment
Services
Demand Driven
Job Referrals
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

35. www.upjohn.org/targeting.html Christopher J. O’Leary
Profiling and Targeting Public Employment Programs
Christopher J. O’Leary
W. E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

36. Australian Experience A Simpler FDSS
Overview
Definitions
U.S. Experience
Programs implemented
Demonstrations and pilots - FDSS
European Experience
Australian Experience
A Simpler FDSS
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

37. Definitions
Profiling – Sorting for referral to services based on presumed needs given observable characteristics of job seekers.
Targeting – Referral to services with the aim of promoting increased effectiveness based on sub-group impact estimates.
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

38. U.S. Experience Implemented Demonstrations and Pilots (TES Book 2002)
Job Search Assistance (1993 WPRS)
Self Employment Assistance (1993, 1998)
Demonstrations and Pilots (TES Book 2002)
Welfare to Work
Reemployment Bonus
Personal Reemployment Accounts
Frontline Decision Support System (FDSS)
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

39. Frontline Decision Support System (FDSS)
Systematic Job Search Module
Chance of returning to same industry
Estimate likely reemployment earnings
Scan job prospects
Identify related occupations
Provide targeted information about specific jobs
Service Referral Module
Rank services by effectiveness for re-employment
Indicate recent rates of usage
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

40. Data Sources UI wage records Employment/earnings history
Program records: ES, UI, JTPA/WIA WtW
Worker/client characteristics
Program participation
Employment history
Labor Market Information
Local unemployment rates Occupation/industry projections
Related/transferable occupations
Massive layoffs
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

41. Service Referral Module
FDSS Tools
Intake
Core Services
Systematic Job Search Module
Review intake info & work history
Estimate chance of returning
To industry/occupation
Earnings history & estimate
Search job orders
Choose related occupations
Referrals
Service Referral Module
Training Services
Intensive Services
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

42. Service Referral Module
Foundations
Estimate models of the probability of reemployment (employability score)
Rank services by rate of successful outcomes for individuals grouped by employability score
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

43. Service Referral Module
Provides a customized list of services most effective for participants in each employability group (5 in each region)
Core and intensive list
Training list
List is based on service usage and outcome patterns for recent participants in each region grouped by employability score
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

44. Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

45. Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

46. Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

47. Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

48. Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

49. Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

50. European Experience Denmark Flex-security policy success
Predicting long term unemployment
Statistical model
Caseworker assessments
Early referral to reemployment services
Implemented and withdrawn (job barometer)
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

51. European Experience Switzerland
Pilot test of statistical assignment to most effective services for employment success
Effectiveness models based on job seeker characteristics, service usage, and outcomes
50-50 random assignment of availability of effectiveness model results for use by frontline staff in counseling job seekers
Extremely low usage by frontline staff
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

52. European Experience The Netherlands
Frontline staff subjectively assign unemployed into one of 4 employability categories:
(1) difficult, (2) moderately difficult, (3) favorable, and (4) extremely good
Services focused on the middle two groups
Targets for performance are based groups
Outcomes measure the success rates of individual reintegration plans
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

53. European Experience: Grouping
Austria
3 zones
3 bundles
Problems (objective) and needs (subjective)
France
7 groups
Questionnaire and interview (subjective)
Germany
4 groups
Characteristics and questionnaire (mixed)
Hungary
3 groups
Statistical model
(objective)
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

54. Australian Experience
The Job Network (1998 unemployment 7.7%)
Competitive placement enterprises (some for profit)
Centrelink (PES) is system entry point
Job Seeker Classification Instrument (JSCI) is a statistical score estimate of long term unemployment
Target intensive services to long-term unemployed
Staff judgment supplements statistical targeting
Try to service highest long-term unemployment risk
Participation in assigned services is required for continued UI eligibility
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

55. Australian Experience
Employment Pathway Fund (2009) (Unemployment rate 4.2%)
Centrelink applies statistical JSCI and sets Employment Pathway Plan (EPP)
Customer groups: work ready, employability development, LTU get a dole and PSE
Customized services for job seekers
Meet labor demands by employers in geographic areas with skills shortages
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

56. A Simpler FDSS Don’t estimate return to prior industry
Don’t estimate reemployment earnings
Rely on existing OES and LMI data
Don’t estimate employability scores
Rely on WPRS to group customers
Still requires linking data across programs including: UI, ES, WIA, and LMI
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

57. A Simpler FDSS Systematic Job Search
Provide background information view
Customized info on prior occupations
OES wage info for prior occupations
LMI info on employment growth
Customized info on declining industries
UI claims and mass layoff data
Related occupations (O*Net)
OES info on related occupations
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

58. A Simpler FDSS Service Referral Module Rely on WPRS models
Set up regions in the state
Separate metro regions
Balance of the state
Set up 5 ranges in WPRS score distribution
Sort services by WPRS score groups
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

59. Skills Development Referral Module
A Simpler FDSS
Skills Development Referral Module
Conduct skills inventory
Identify skills gaps for available jobs
List available training institutions
Provide consumer reports on training institution effectiveness
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

60. A Simpler FDSS WPRS models must be up to date
Identify proper OES and LMI data
Summarize recent UI claims for high layoff occupation/industry groups
Access mass layoff survey data to identify declining industries
Pilot test to learn if the WPRS score can be used to replace employability score in FDSS
Share tested FDSS procedures with all states
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

61. Profiling and Targeting Public Employment Programs
Christopher J. O’Leary
W. E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research
Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

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Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

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Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

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Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services

66. THANKS! www.workforce3one.org Moderator:
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Statistical Targeting to Support Reemployment Services