1. Managing the risks on the global food system from
extreme weather driven by climate change
Tim Benton
UK Champion for Global Food Security & Professor of Ecology, University of Leeds
@timgbenton

2. Our food system is shaped by movement of food
waste
Consumers say the food companies
The food companies say the consumer
Govt stays out of it as long as the market more or less works
Consumers ultimately have the power but not the knowledge
How much does the food chain have a responsibility to drive things towards sustainability?
Our food system is shaped by movement of food

3. Complex supply chains
Defra (2012) Food Statistics Pocketbook

4. Kit kat
Milk chocolate (66%) (sugar, cocoa butter, cocoa mass, dried skimmed milk, whey powder, butterfat, vegetable fat, lactose, emulsifier (soya lecithin), flavouring), wheat flour, sugar, vegetable fat, cocoa mass, yeast, raising agent (sodium bicarbonate), salt, calcium sulphate, flavouring

5. Soy movements
(2012)

6. Global homogenisation: concentration of production
Foley et al 2011
Statistical “map” of global diets
Nearly 2/3 of the world’s calories come from wheat, rice and maize; 86% comes from wheat, rice , maize, sugar, barley, soy, palm, potato

7. Puma et al 2015
Global connectivity through trade: risks in both movements of goods and price connectivity

8. Supply chain logistics: risks and resilience

9. the world is changing

11. Extreme weather is getting more extreme
Patricia Oct

12. Production shocks from weather
Yields
Production shocks from weather
Mid-Cent
End-Cent
Recent
NEAR
RECENT history
Yields maintained; nutritional quality may decline
CO2 fertilisation
Yields impacted more
No CO2 fertilisation
Model-based distributions of global calorie-weighted yield of maize, soy, wheat, and rice for the historical ( ) and future with (top row) and without (bottom row) the effects of fertilization from increasing atmospheric CO2 included. The estimated magnitude of a current 1-in-200 year event is indicated by the horizontal line

14. Recommendations
Better understand the risks Our knowledge is limited by available model simulations. Modelling limitations also constrain our ability to understand how production shocks translate into short run price impacts.
Adapt agriculture for a changing climate Increases in productivity, sustainability and resilience to climate change are required. “Sustainable and resilient intensification”

15. 3 Improve the functioning of international markets; e.g.:
Improving the quality and accessibility of key market data, not least estimates of public and private stockholdings. Building on the recent success of the Agricultural Market Information System will be important in this regard.
Agreeing international rules to limit the scope for unilateral export controls in the agriculture sector.
Developing mechanisms to increase the flexibility of biofuel mandates.
Research to identify critical geographical pinch points in international trade and approaches to address their vulnerability, such as investment in infrastructure or plurilateral agreements to maintain sea lanes for example.

16. Bolster national resilience to market shocks The precise mix of appropriate policy measures will vary according to national context (particularly important for import dependent SSA).
Explore opportunities for coordinated risk management As knowledge on risks emerges, develop contingency plans and establish early warning systems with agreed response protocols, and explore opportunities include coordinated management of emergency and/or strategic reserves.

17. tim.benton@foodsecurity.ac.uk www.foodsecurity.ac.uk
Thank you!

18. Bojana Bajzelj (2015)