1. Presentation to TMC Government Affairs Council
November 15, 2016
Robert D. Miller, Partner
Houston

2. Today’s Discussion National elections Texas elections Local elections
Political Observations

3. President Trump won 306 electoral votes; Clinton won 232
Trump carried 30 states plus Maine CD 2
Clinton carried 20 states
As of Sunday afternoon, Clinton was winning the popular vote 47.8% to 47.3%
Trump carried Texas by a margin of 52.5% to 43.2%

4. President

5. United States Senate
Previously, 54 Republicans and 44 Democrats, with 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats
34 Senate seats were on the November 8 ballot
24 held by Republicans; 10 held by Democrats
7 senate elections were in states carried by President Obama in 2012 – FL, IA, IL, NH, OH, PA, WI
Democrats needed to pick up 5 seats net to gain majority control; Democrats picked up 2 seats -- IL and NH

6. United States Senate Louisiana Runoff election – December 10, 2016
Republican State Treasurer John Kennedy is the likely winner
Final results for the Senate are likely to be
52 Republicans
48 Democrats (including 2 independents)

7. United States Senate

8. United States Senate -- 2018
Democrats must defend 25 senate seat compared to 8 for the Republicans
10 of the Democratic seats are in states carried by President-elect Trump: FL, IN, MI, MO, MT, ND, OH, PA, WI, WV

9. U. S. House of Representatives
Currently, 247 Republicans and 188 Democrats
All 435 seats on the ballot
Democrats needed to pick up 30 seats
As of Sunday afternoon, it was 238 Republicans and 193 Democrats, with 4 seats still being counted
Likely will end up 241 Republicans and 194 Democrats
6 seat pick up for the Democrats

10. U. S. House of Representatives

11. Governors and State Legislatures
Republicans netted an additional 2 governors
Republicans now hold 33 governor seats compared to 16 for Democrats (Alaska is held by an independent)
Republicans now control 68 legislative bodies compared to 31 for Democrats (Nebraska is unicameral)
Republicans now have 25 trifectas (control governor and both legislative bodies) compared to 6 for Democrats

12. Governors and State Legislatures

13. Texas Elections All of the statewide Republicans won easily
Last time Democrats won a statewide race was 1994
Senate remains the same: 20 R – 11 D
Democrats picked up four seats in Texas House
Next session it will be 95 R – 55 D

14. Texas Elections

15. Harris County
Democrats swept all of the county-wide races, including Sheriff, District Attorney, Tax Assessor-Collector and 24 District Judges
Clinton carried the county 54.2% to 41.8%
In 2012, Obama carried the county 49.39% to 49.31% for Romney

16. Houston ISD Proposition One For 37.35% Against 62.65%
HISD was seeking approval to begin paying $162 million in recapture to the state beginning next spring
Now, approximately $18 billion in commercial property will be “detached” for tax purposes beginning July 2017

17. Political Observations
Big Texas winner: Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick
Potentially big Texas loser: Sen. Ted Cruz
Texas Democrats’ pace to statewide competitiveness continues to be glacial
U. S. Supreme Court and Justice Department likely to continue to pare back Voting Rights Act (VRA)
Republicans are likely to control Texas redistricting in With weakened or absent VRA, Republicans can perpetuate legislative control for another decade
Harris County probably elects Republicans for the last time in 2018, a gubernatorial election year
In 2020 and thereafter, Harris County will be Democratic

18. Conclusion/Q&A Robert D. Miller Locke Lord LLP 713.226.1186