1. Political Legitimacy – The acceptance by the people and leaders of an exchange of power from one leader to the next.

2. Was the election legitimate?
When the popular vote declares one winner (Hillary Clinton) and the electoral college declares another (Donald Trump) there is usually an outpouring of sentiment to get rid of the electoral college.
Donald Trump was widely criticized for saying he wasn’t sure if he’d accept the outcome of the election because this peaceful exchange of power is so critical to our democracy.
When popular vote and electoral vote both declare the same winner – clearly there are no issues of legitimacy

3. Three kinds of elections
Primaries/Caucuses – to determine who will run in the general election
General Election – a contest between the chosen candidates of the party
Policy elections – not national
Referendums – voters can approve or disapprove of proposals made by the legislature ~ or approve or disapprove of proposed amendments to the state constitution
Initiative petitions – Through a petition drive (with signatures of at least 10 percent of the voters that voted in the last election) an proposal to change the state constitution is added to the ballot.

4. Initiatives and Referendums
Policy entrepreneurs often initiate ballot proposals
They can be ordinary people with a particular passion

5. So how important are these campaigns we are spending ALL THIS MONEY ON?
Political campaigns are less crucial in elections than most politicians believe.
Reinforcement – Yes I still do like Democrats
Activation – I love The Donald – I’m going to give him money
Conversion – I was a Democrat – but I’m going to be a Republican
So how is that working out?
Reinforcement – helpful
Activation – helpful
Conversion – not so much…

6. Incumbents have substantial advantages starting with name recognition
Most people have “selective perception” – they only pay attention to things they already agree with and they interpret events according to their predisposed ideas.
Things like party identification influence voting the most and tend to make your identification stronger
Incumbents have substantial advantages starting with name recognition
If you want to be elected in MI – change your name to Levin or Ilitch

7. So are they (campaigns) useless?
Wedge issues – one thing that may cause a person to select the opposing party in that election. If you passionately disagree with your preferred candidate on one issue – you may switch.
Getting out the vote – targeting your audience in such a way that they feel compelled to vote.
Democrats did not do this in this election. Republicans did not vote in higher numbers nor did they switch parties – the Dem’s simply did not get their voters out.

8. Who has suffrage? 15th Amendment – suffrage for blacks
19th Amendment – suffrage for women
26th Amendment – voting age dropped to 18
Non-Citizens cannot vote – even those here as permanent residents that work, own businesses and pay taxes
Prisoners cannot vote
Most parolees cannot vote
10 states permanently revoke the right to vote on felons

9. Why people don’t/do vote
Have to take time off work or school
Causes lost wages – so inadvertently expensive
Some states have early voting to increase participation
Absentee voting is also possible – but requires additional steps
If you see big policy differences in the parties – you are more likely to vote
If you have a high degree of political efficacy – you believe your vote matters – you are more likely to vote
If you have a sense that voting is your civic duty you are more likely to vote

10. Voter Registration – a good idea?
Decreases Voter Turnout
Some states allow registration on election day
MI requires you register ahead of time – as do most states
Motor Voter Act requires states to allow eligible voters to register when they get their drivers license.

11. Politicians pay attention to groups that vote – so – who votes?

12. Who Votes?
Education – more you have the more likely you are to vote – the single most important factor in determining who votes
Age – older people are more likely to vote than younger people
Race – Hispanics and Blacks are underrepresented largely due to low levels of education. Educated minorities are more likely to vote than whites of similar education level
Gender – women turn out more than men
Married/Single – Married people vote more than single people
Government workers (like your favorite government teacher) – vote more than other professions.
If you identify with several of these – you increase the likelihood of voting (elderly, educated and married)

13. Mandate Theory of Elections
Follow the logic – Politicians like this theory
People vote for one candidate over the other because they agree with the policy agenda of one candidate more than they agree with the policy agenda of the other
The winner therefore has a “mandate” from the majority of the people
Bush “When you win there is a feeling that the people have spoken and embraced your point of view and that’s what I intend to tell the Congress

14. Political Scientists don’t think much of the Mandate Theory
Three things need to be considered
How closely the voter identifies with a party
Parties rely on groups that make up their coalition
Voters don’t have to know every stance taken – they know where the party stands on issues that are meaningful to them and vote in accordance with that
Fewer voters are actually aligned that closely with one party or the other anymore.

15. The voters’ evaluation of the candidate
The voters’ evaluation of the candidate. What is the candidates image – what attributes do voters look for?
Integrity (read morality – family/religious values)

16. Reliability (don’t be a flip-flopper)

17. Competence (incumbents have the advantage – think Obama and Sandy

18. The match between the voters’ policy positions and the candidates – policy voting. This type of voting can only occur if all four of the following are true:
The voter has a clear sense of their own stand on policy issues
The voter knows where the candidates stand on policy issues
The voter sees the differences between the candidates stands on the issues
The voter actually casts their vote based on which candidate lines up most closely with their own stand.
These are what kind of voters?
Many voters find they agree with one candidate on some issues and the other candidate on other issues

19. Candidates are often vague
If you take too strong a stand – you lose voters
If you don’t take a strong stand or don’t explain HOW you will accomplish your goals – you leave the voters puzzled
The media spends most of it’s time focusing on the “horse race” not the issues.

20. Up until 1968 – candidates focused on party bosses who would give them the nomination.

21. Today candidate have to appeal to activists in the primaries – they have to take clear positions on issues.

22. Again Three Types of Voting
Party voting (No issue content voter)
Candidate Evaluation Voting (Nature of the Times/Group Benefits Voters)
Policy Voting (Ideologues)

23. The Electoral College
It was created to give the nation's elite the power to choose the president and vice president rather than the people directly.
Electoral votes = # of Senators + Reps – Electors are picked by the party – seen as a reward
All but Maine and Nebraska are winner take all
Electors meet in their states in December and mail vote to the Vice President (because he is the president of the Senate) who announces the the new president in Congress
No winner – the House picks from the top three electoral vote winners. Each state gets one vote. If you can’t compromise – NO VOTE

24. Small states are “over – represented”
Each state gets the same number of electoral votes as they have representatives in the House. Since House representation is based on population – the states are equally represented.
However – each state also gets an electoral vote for each Senator. Since all states have 2 senators – small states get as much say as big states.
Small states are therefore over-represented in the Electoral College.

25. Battleground States
Where the polls show that the contest is likely to be closest. AKA – swing states
Should we make all states battlegrounds?
Elect by popular vote
What happens to small states
What happens to counties in MI that have few people
How important do California, Texas, New York, etc. become

26. The greater the difference between candidates – the more likely it is that voters will steer policy by their choices
Candidates are not always clear – they talk around the issue instead of providing a clear choice
Politicians are often ambiguous
When politicians are clear – and voters elect them based on their stands – then the politician can follow through.

27. Retrospective Voting What have you done for me lately?
Very much like “nature of the times” voting. People ask what the person in office has done most recently to improve their life. This impacts incumbents as a newcomer would have nothing to offer.
The mid-term election in 2010 is a good example. The House lost the Democratic majority because people were unhappy with the pace of the recovery.
The re-election of Obama was unusual in that the incumbent remained in office – even though most people were unhappy with current economic conditions.

28. Citizens in a Democracy look to benefit from the government
If you believe as an individual that you can influence government action – then you concurrently believe that the government should have more power.
Voters want the government to “accomplish” things for them
As democracy increases – government responsibility increases and so too does the scope and size of government.