1. Current Yields April 21st, 2017
Monday April 24, 2017
Equity Commentary:
Economic Releases
4/25/17
US: New Home Sales
US Consumer Confidence
4/26/17
South Korea: GDP Data
4/27/17
US: Durable Goods
Euro: ECB Meeting
4/28/17
US: 1st Quarter 2017 GDP
UK GDP Data
US Economic Scenarios
Avg. Recovery
10%
Subpar Recovery
60%
Stagflation
30%
Severe Recession 0%
The S&P 500 ended the week up 0.9% amid indications of possible movement around Pres. Trump’s health care & tax overhaul agenda. Stronger-than-expected corp. earnings reports also raised sentiment. European equity indices were mostly lower as traders remained cautious ahead of the French presidential election. Japanese equities ended the week higher on the back of a weaker Yen.
Crude Oil ended the week below the psychologically important $50/barrel. WTI fell sharply as producers struggled to maintain supply cuts. Gold remained largely flat for the week.
to pass, stocks can focus on the global synchronous economic growth that is driving a wide and strong earnings recovery. We expect equity markets will remain choppy for the next few weeks, but do not see a major correction near-term.
Thoughts: We continue to believe that the market is climbing a wall of worry built mostly on political and geopolitical concerns. As these events continue to
Economics (Data from consensus est.)
Full Year
Forecasts
2016 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2017
2018
Global GDP YOY
2.90%
2.25%
3.25%
3.10%
3.20%
Global CPI YOY
3.00%
U.S. GDP YOY
1.50%
2.10%
2.30%
2.20%
2.50%
U.S. CPI YOY
1.30%
2.40%
2.60%
Fed Funds
0.56%
0.75%
1.00%
1.25%
10 Yr. Treas.
1.31%
2.45%
2.48%
2.51%
2.54%
2.66%
Capital Markets Data (Capital market & ETF data as of 4/21/17)
Index
Last 5 Days
Last Month
Tot. Rt. YTD
Tot. Rt. TTM
NTM P/E
NTM Earning Yld.
TTM P/B
DIV%
MSCI AW
1.98%
1.35%
8.13%
11.27%
16.81x
6.24%
2.64x
2.13%
S&P 500
0.87%
1.49%
5.54%
14.71%
17.32x
5.64%
3.01x
2.04%
DJIA
0.51%
1.04%
4.71%
17.25%
16.58x
5.86%
3.56x
2.33%
NASDAQ
1.82%
2.46%
10.14%
20.96%
21.86x
4.54%
3.72x
1.09%
Russell 2000
2.58%
2.99%
2.06%
23.25%
23.74x
4.11%
2.13x
1.51%
MSCI EAFE
0.23%
2.02%
6.87%
7.20%
14.50x
6.70%
1.61x
3.07%
MSCI EM
0.17%
0.39%
12.00%
15.72%
12.15x
8.04%
1.55x
2.44%
(data as of 4/24/17)
Index
Last Price
Last 5 Days
Last Month
YTD
London Gold
$ 1,277.50
- 0.90%
- 0.75%
10.83%
West Tex Oil
$ 49.20
- 0.83%
2.09% %
DB Commodity
$ 15.47
- 3.68%
0.27%
- 5.74%
US / EUR
$ 1.086
2.11%
0.84%
2.82%
US / Yen $
0.06%
- 3.32%
- 4.59%
Bond Market Commentary: The US 10-Yr. Treasury yield ended flat as markets digested slightly softer economic data and geopolitical risk ahead of the first round of French elections on Sunday. Despite the market forward interest rate curve pricing in a reduced probability of a June rate hike, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fisher commented Fri. that he saw no change to the Fed’s two further hikes planned for The yield of the UK 10-Year Gilt and the German 10-Year Bund ended the week higher.
Current Yields April 21st, 2017

2. Taking the Pulse of the Capital Markets
Global Capital Market Results % (through 4/21/17)
Both stocks and bonds were higher, while the price of oil fell by almost 7%, as the beginning of the 1st quarter earnings season and political headlines led to a choppy week for investors.
International Monetary Fund Growth Forecasts
Global economic activity is picking up with a long-awaited cyclical recovery in investment, manufacturing, and trade. That is according to the International Monetary Fund and their most recent April 2017 Economic Outlook. Global growth is seen rising from 3.1% in 2016 to 3.5% in 2017 and 3.6% in Stronger activity and expectations of more robust global demand, coupled with agreed restrictions on oil supply, have helped commodity prices recover from their lows in early Higher commodity prices have provided some relief to commodity exporting countries. Global stock markets are supported by expected continued policy backing in China and fiscal expansion and deregulation in the United States. If sentiment and confidence remain strong, short-term growth could indeed surprise on the upside.
These positive developments don’t hide some of the structural hurdles the world economy faces. Low productivity growth & high income inequality are two of the highest profile issues that are likely to persist. Inward-looking or protectionism policies also threaten global economic integration and the cooperative global economic order. Those two fundamental principles have served the world economy well, especially emerging market.
We see the current global, and domestic, growth trend as sustainable.
International Monetary Fund
April 2017 World Economic Outlook Projections
3.1%
3.5%
3.6%
1.6%
2.3%
2.5%
1.7%
6.7%
6.2%
6.6%
6.8%
7.7%
7.2%
1.0%
0.6%
1.2%
2.0%
1.8%
4.1%
4.8%
4.5%