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Portfolio Update January 31, 2017 Jeffrey Lorden
Investment Management Academy
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Current Holding: Flexsteel Industries (FLXS)
Long 500 shares Cost basis of $ Purchased on 11/5/2015 Recommendation given by Michael Migut & Ari Lazar Gave Fair Value of $56.58 Currently trading at $51.20 Current Holding: Flexsteel Industries (FLXS)
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Value Investing Might be asking: why only 1 holding?
“The stock market is a no-called-strike game. You don’t have to swing at everything – you can wait for your pitch” – Warren Buffett “It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price, than a fair company at a wonderful price” – Buffett Value investors wait for a great company, selling for a decent margin of safety to the estimated fair value Don’t swing at GOOD pitches, wait for the GREAT ones! Value Investing
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Ben Graham’s Mr. Market Actual Business Cycles (good year, bad year)
Market Price (over- and under-optimism) Ben Graham’s Mr. Market
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"Basically, price fluctuations have only one significant meaning for the true investor. They provide him with an opportunity to buy wisely when prices fall sharply and sell wisely when they advance a great deal. At other times he will do better if he forgets about the stock market.“ – Ben Graham Ben Graham
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Manufactures and sells wooden & upholstered furniture
Market Cap: $419 million (small-cap) Sells entirely within US 2 Segments: Residential & Commercial Products include sofas, tables, desks, rockers, chairs, etc… For entire pitch, see: Research.aspx?Cat=Portfolio Flexsteel Overview Source: Bloomberg
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Performance Source: Yahoo!Finance
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Company News Why the huge dip in October 2016? (lost 19%)
Reported 1Q Earnings Lowered guidance for CapEx Revenue was down 11.4% year over year Forecasted weak demand EPS was down year over year Why the quick recovery? (spiked 45% in month following election) Trump rally Expecting fiscal policies will boost growth Company News Source: Bloomberg
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Company News Why the recent decline?
Over-optimism? Correction to more reasonable levels? Lost 8% since 1/25/2017 Will report 2Q results ending 12/31/2016 on February 2,2017 (after market closes) Expect some volatility as FLXS has been volatile around earnings Someone else quick update? Company News Source: Bloomberg
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Performance As of 1/23/2017… FLXS S&P 500 Russell 2000
Price Return: 23.04% Total Return (including dividends): 25.49% Annualized Return: 20.47% S&P 500 Total Return: 10.63% Russell 2000 Total Return: 15.14% Performance Source: Bloomberg
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Keys to Success (At Time of Pitch)
Source: Bloomberg
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Keys to Success (At Time of Pitch)
Source: Bloomberg
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Keys to Success (At Time of Pitch)
Source: Bloomberg
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