1. The Evolution of Forensic DNA Database Policy
Success; addressing unmet potential; and the path to the future
Presented by Tim Schellberg
Gordon Thomas Honeywell Governmental Affairs
AFSN Bangkok, Thailand
August 16 , 2016

2. Global DNA Expansion The First 20 Years
United Kingdom, USA, New Zealand, Australia & Western Europe
Early Adopters
Data from early adopters pushed the rest of the world forward
Countries to follow: 54 Countries
Implemented

3. 54 COUNTRIES HAVE IMPLEMENTED NATIONAL PROGRAMS
OVER 70 MILLION OFFENDER SAMPLES
Australia
Finland
Macedonia
South Korea
Austria
France
Malaysia
Spain
Bahrain
Germany
Mauritius
Sweden
Barbados
Hong Kong
Norway
Switzerland
Belarus
Hungary
Oman
Taiwan
Belgium
Iceland
Panama
United Arab Emirates
Brazil
Ireland
Poland
United Kingdom
Canada
Israel
Portugal
United States
Czech Republic
Japan
Qatar
Uruguay
Chile
Jordan
Romania
China
Kuwait
Russia
Croatia
Latvia Lithuania
Slovenia
Cyprus
Slovakia
Denmark
Netherlands
Singapore
Estonia
New Zealand
South Africa
These countries have implemented legislation/polices on a national basis to database the DNA of a defined category of criminal offender

4. Next Countries to Implement National DNA Database Programs
Thailand
Bangladesh
Pakistan
Turkey
Algeria
Colombia
Peru
Philippines
India
Mexico
Saudi Arabia
Vietnam
Italy

5. The Amazing Success of Criminal Offender DNA Databases
Solve
Prevent
Exonerate
Save

6. Solves Crime Impressive numbers USA : United Kingdom :
14 million offender profiles
322,000 hits
29,000 annual crime scene to subject matches
United Kingdom :
5.7 million
63% Hit Rate
Spectacular hits
The Washington DC Mansion Murders
The European Serial Murder Case

7. The Washington DC Mansion Murders
May 14, 2015
Savopoulus family & Veralicia Figueroa
May 18, 2015
Pizza crust led to cold hit
May 21, 2015
Arrested Daron Wint, trial pending

8. European Serial Murder Case
Prüm Network
Gerhard & Erna Hintermaster
Murdered May 21, 2015
Vienna, Austria
Left mark on body expressing joy from torture
No match in Austria database, but cold hit in Dutch database through Prüm
Darius Kotwica
Arrested June 8th
Already tied to additional murder in Sweden
Other crimes pending

9. Prevent Crime
Case Study: Chicago Chicago’s examination of the criminal activities of 8 individuals identified 60 violent crimes, including 52 murders and rapes, that could have been prevented if DNA had been taken on felony arrest.
In each case, the offender had committed previously undetected violent crimes that could have been solved immediately through a DNA match. However, DNA was not required at arrest.
What crimes could have been prevented?
22 murders – victims ranging from 24 to 44 years of age.
30 rapes – victims ranging from 15 to 65 years of age.
Attempted rapes
Aggravated kidnapping
This study helped pass the Illinois arrestee legislation
Source: Chicago Study on Preventable Crime 2005

10. Exonerate the Innocent
The United Kingdom compares the DNA from 40,000 crime scenes annually against the database and gets a 63% hit rate. Consider how many innocent people DON’T get a knock on the door as a result of this.

11. Save Money “Effects of DNA Database on Crime”
University of Virginia Study - Professor Jennifer Doleac
DETERENCE
“DNA Profiling reduces the likelihood of any new conviction within five years of release by 3.9% for serious violent offenders and 2.9% for serious property offenders.”
CRIME REDUCTTON
Database Expansion: 10% increase in database
Impact:
5.22% less murders
6.66 % less rapes
8.8% less vehicle thefts
CALCULATIONS/CONCLUSTIONS
Each profile added has a social costs savings of approximately $20,096
In the United States spent $30 million adding 761,609 profiles, but saved $15.3 billion by preventing new crime.

12. Criminal Offender DNA Databases - Simply Awesome!
But despite the accolades and the data, the global public safety community has not advanced the databases to their true potential
Casework comparisons to the database is low
Few countries have built a reference database capable of high hit rates

13. The Unmet Potential of DNA Databases
Over 60% of all casework is from property crimes

14. The Unmet Potential of DNA Databases

15. The Unmet Potential of Criminal Offender DNA Databases
Are 54 Countries and 70 million samples impressive numbers?
Left with 50 countries and 11 million total samples

16. European Database Characteristics
Convicted not arrested - Only 11 European Countries (less than 25%) have authorized arrestee testing
Serious crimes, not all crimes
Very few expansion efforts in last ten years
United States and Australia have had over 200 separate pieces of legislation attempting expansion during same time period
Hit rates below 10%
Consider Belgium million people ,000 offender samples
Compare to:
New Zealand million people – 145,000 offender samples
North Carolina, USA - 10 million people – 252,000 offender samples
Sweden - 10 million people – 143,000 samples

17. The Cause of Stagnant Database Establishment and Expansion
Senior Government Official Awareness
Cultural focus is not on solving and preventing crime
Legal Problems
Privacy concerns
Lack of Advocacy

18. Privacy Concerns with DNA Databases
Police DNA Database attacked
“Controls on the database must be tightened to prevent a Big Brother States” - Dr. Helen Wallace, GeneWatch
ACLU Opposes Big Government DNA Database
“Anti-big government conservatives should be up in arms about this (legislation to require arrestees to go into the database)– this is a major overstep by our government”
- Howard Simon, ACLU

19. 06, 09, 11, 12, 10, 10, 22, 24, 9.3, 10, 08, 09, 14, 14, 15, 17, 17, 22, 25, 12, 12, 9, 10, 09, 13
3 elements to give the DNA reference sample the same privacy reputation as a fingerprint
Mandatory sample destruction of reference samples
- 15 (est.) of the 54 database countries have this legislative policy
Limits on familial searching
Most serious of crimes
Last resort
Judicial supervision
3. Responsible Implementation of NGS technology
Only take what you need. Resist creating large amounts of data
Treat coding region DNA (phenotypic/ancestry SNPs) differently

20. Serial murder families
Embracing Advocacy
Advocacy Wins
Victims
Vanessa Lynch
South Africa
Jayann Sepich
United States
Serial murder families
Brazil
Chile Launches Criminal DNA Registry
The Santiago Times
Public Officials
Philippines National Police announces plans to take DNA from all arrestees
Dr. Gaston Bocaz
Dr. Lorna Santos

21. Embracing Advocacy Advocacy Wins
Behind most successful national criminal offender database programs is a DNA scientist that makes it their mission to establish or expand DNA databases by pushing this policy to the highest levels of government within their country.

22. The Future of Criminal DNA Database Growth is Bright
Data driven results
Technology enhancements
Public Advocacy
The leadership of the
forensic DNA scientist
Crimes solved & prevented
Offender profile growth
Casework growth

23. Are we content with today’s database programs?
First politician to go after more
United Kingdom
Prime Minister
Tony Blair
UK Telegraph
October 2006
>90% hit rates
Cleaner Policy: removes arrestee vs. convicted debate
Removes racial disparity argument

24. Blair’s Proposal Blasted
Argues: Numerous countries require all their citizens to provide fingerprints. Why not DNA?
Privacy Advocates:
“DNA is different”
Biological sample
Familial searching

25. All Citizen DNA Databases Could they happen in the right environment?
Monarchy form of government
Security a major government concern
Financial resources

26. All citizen databases are coming to the Middle East
Kuwait
Newsweek
Huffington Post
June 26, 2015 : Kuwait City Mosque Bombing → 27 people killed
July 2, 2015 : All Citizen DNA database legislation passes Kuwait Parliament
All citizens (1.3 million), foreign residents (2.9 million) and visitors will be required to submit DNA to the national database
$33,000 USD fine and one year jail if refuse
$400 million USD budget approved for project
Collection
Citizens – Mobile centers
Residents – Visa renewal
Visitors – Airport
Privacy Solutions
Prohibition against looking at paternity
Prohibition against typing the coding region
Sample destruction and familial searching restrictions?
Implementation to begin in late 2016 or 2017

27. All citizen databases are coming to the Middle East
Oman
Sub-population pilot expected to begin in 2017
Qatar
Active discussion
Saudi Arabia
Sub-population groups under discussion
Airline employees
Religious visitors
Illegal immigration

28. All citizen databases are coming to the Middle East
United Arab Emirates
All population discussion dates back to 2005
Active preparation and investment during last 10 years
2006 contract signing with UK’s FSS to help UAE establish all citizens database
Will UAE’s active involvement with international community have an impact on the program?

29. Could we see all population DNA databases expand to western countries or other countries with democratic forms of government?
Significant Hurdles
Open & Public Parliamentary Process
Culture of being influenced by opposition and protests

30. Could we see all population DNA databases expand to western countries or other countries with democratic forms of government?
“Nearly 80% say that cataloging the DNA of everyone in the country is a good idea.”
Copenhagen Post (2/4/2015)
Is there a path forward?
Denmark study
Middle East experience & data
Transforming DNA to feel like a fingerprint

31. Speed of precision medicine adoption
Could we see all population DNA databases expand to western countries or other countries with democratic forms of government?
Privacy issues with Personalized Medicine
Privacy issues with Human
Identification Databases
Whole Genome
Health Systems
Doctors
Research Institutions
Multiple Government Agencies
Insurance Companies
Big Data Companies
Paternity Awareness
Genetic Weakness
Limited Identity Genetic Markers
Limited Government Agencies
Speed of precision medicine adoption

32. Civil DNA Database in the Near Term
Targeted
Innovative
Voluntary
United States illegal immigration detainee legislation.
Over 500,000 annual samples when implemented.
Peru Babies DNA Pilot
Fingerprint Based National Identification is a priority of Peru
Fingerprints do not work for small children
DNA as a condition of entry

33. Next Generation Sequencing
What will be the impact of new DNA technologies on how we view and use the databases?
Next Generation Sequencing
(NGS)
Rapid DNA

34. Next Generation Systems Benefit to Police Investigations
Low Quality/Quantity DNA (profiles from 75% less base-pair information)
Mixtures
Going deeper

35. Low Quality/Quantity EXAMPLE: Current Unsolved Cold Cases
200,000 unsolved murders in the USA since 1960.
How many could benefit from NGS?

36. Mixtures The weak link in DNA casework testing
“Mixture deconvolution is our biggest challenge in forensic DNA”
Tim Kupferschmid, Chief Medical Examiner of the New York City Crime Lab.
Mixtures mistakes and concerns are building in the USA and globally
“National accreditation board suspends all DNA testing at Washington D.C. Crime Lab “ - Washington Post - April 27, 2015
Texas may call into question 24,000 mixture cases since 1999
The Texas Tribune - September 18, 2015

37. Going Deeper – Phenotypic SNPs
No suspects and no database match: Investigative leads with Phenotypic SNP’s will be another option
Eye and hair color
Ancestry
Facial features
Disease

38. DNA Casework – What Technology Options will be available with NGS?
What’s Possible: Many makers in one test
All relevant STR (50-100?)
All relevant Y-STR’s
Identity SNP’s
Phenotypic SNP’s (Physical Traits, Ancestry)
INDELS
Mito
Resist:
Focus on specific panels to meet specific needs

39. Questions?
Tim Schellberg
(253)