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PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL
DIVISIONAL UPDATE Home Entertainment
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Executive Summary Home Entertainment
Global home entertainment economics continue to be pressured by the worldwide economic recession, changes in the retail landscape, and evolving consumer habits Medium-term outlook suggests opportunity for some recovery from stabilized consumer revenues and risk from continued shift to lower-margin models In this period of turbulence, Home Entertainment is pursuing a cohesive set of strategies and operating principles to drive toward the best possible outcome, emphasizing a commercial focus on advancing higher-margin models (digital has risen to 25% of gross profit) At the same time, Home Entertainment continues to rescale its business to bolster margins through efficiencies and savings After laying out strategic and operating principles in 2nd bullet, suggest bringing-up ‘topics du jour’ in context of how we’ve actively driven the outcome using analytics and insights Redbox Struck an early above-market day/date deal (industry contribution/trx: $0.95; SPHE contribution/trx: $1.10) Has had minimal cannibalization impact on sell-through window (note: Disney, Iger, and Paramount, Dauman, agree re: cannibalization effect) Provided a hedge against decline in brick & mortar channel (b&m FY09 Net Rev: $120M -> Redbox FY11 FC2 Net Rev: $110M) Netflix Moved from above-market day/date deal to in-line with market 28-day window for > $50M DBO titles Secured a higher MG so that a greater portion of the overall deal is guaranteed Has a negative impact on a slate-neutral basis but inevitable as Netflix struck similar deals with all other studios Blockbuster Took a lien on BBI’s Canadian assets to secure our credit Looks like it will enter managed Ch. 11 in early October Will likely close an additional stores as part of managed Ch. 11 Actively renegotiating deal to be 15-20% below current terms to enable survival – analysis shows that going past 20% is net negative and will hold the line Anticipate that most BBI consumer trx will shift to Redbox, followed by even split between VOD (favorable to us), Netflix and independent mom&pop rental stores 2
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The decline in conversion rates appears to be decelerating
Home Entertainment Market U.S. CY2010 Year-End Traditional Physical: Theatrical New Release Sell-Through Dashboard CY 2010 New Release Conversion of Domestic Box Office to 8-Week Retail POS (Transactions per Thousand Dollars in DBO, Through December) Domestic Box Office ($M) 8-Week Box Office Factor CY ‘06 CY ‘07 CY ‘08 CY ‘09 CY ‘10 YoY % Change: Domestic Box Office -3% -5% +0% -0% Update: through April, cume. Δ -43% BOF -1% -20% -12% -7% Cume. Δ from 2006 -1% -21% -31% -36% The decline in conversion rates appears to be decelerating Sources: Nielsen Home Scan; title-level analysis; SPHE Commercial Planning & Innovation Note: Major studios include Fox, Lionsgate, Paramount, SPHE, Universal, Warner, and Disney (includes distributed lines); box office adjusted for inflation (in 2010 dollars) and 3-D admissions. For titles that have fewer than 26 weeks of POS data as of the end of January 2011, 26-week POS has been projected. 3
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CY Δ in U.S. Consumer Spending on Home Video
Home Entertainment Market Update U.S. CY2010 Year-End Market Dashboard CY Δ in U.S. Consumer Spending on Home Video (Year-On-Year % Change in $US, CY’09 v. CY'10) Physical Digital[2] Sell Through Rental[1] Phys. Total Sell Through iVOD Rental CST VOD Rental Dig. Total Total Market ($B) 10.15 5.85 16.00 0.60 0.16 1.20 1.96 17.96 % of Total 57% 33% 90% 3% 1% 7% 10% 100% Source: Rentrak, Nielsen VideoScan, Screen Digest/Adams Media Research, SPHE Commercial Planning & Innovation Note: [1] Physical rental data is NOT inclusive of Digital revenues (whether iVOD, or Cable/ Satellite VOD/PPV). [2] All Digital data from Screen Digest / Adams Media Research [3] Numbers do not add to 100% due to rounding. 4
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PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL
Home Entertainment Market Impact of Business Model Mix Below trends at a consumer spend level, the underlying business model mix in Home Entertainment creates opportunities and risks for studios $ Contribution to Studios per Transaction by Business Model (Industry Average) Digital Digital Rental Sell-Through (1) Source: Screen Digest, FutureSource, Morgan Stanley ; SPHE Commercial Planning & Innovation; SPHE Bus Dev & Strategic Planning Notes: SPHE margins generally in-line with industry averages with exception of Redbox where SPHE margin is ~$1.10 vs. industry kiosk average of $0.95 (1) Brick and mortar (B&M) margin represents a weighted average of traditional DVD and Blu-ray rental margins. Weighting based on number of total domestic 2009 rental units consumed by format (i.e., 95% traditional DVD, 5% Blu-ray) per Morgan Stanley PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL 5 5 5 5
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Home Entertainment Market Business Model Mix Impact on SPHE
Given its higher margins, digital now represents 26% of SPHE’s gross profits on 18% of net revenues Percentage of SPHE WW FY12 Budget – Net Revenue vs. Gross Profit by Format 100% ($1,906M) 100% ($1,236M) ($346M) ($322M) ($1,560M) ($914M) Source: SPHE Finance
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Home Entertainment Market Update International CY2010 Year-End Market Dashboard
CY Δ in Consumer Spending on Physical Sell-through (Year-On-Year % Change in $US, CY’09 v. CY'10) Note: Market data for Digital is limited internationally Australia France Germany Japan UK ROW [2] Total International Digital (Select Y-o-Y Statistics) Europe EST & iVOD Market: +88% to $150M # of Territories by Service iTunes: 8 (18 by July ’11) PSN: 5 (9 by July ’11) Xbox: 17 Asia/Pac EST & iVOD Market: +800% to $80M iTunes: 3 PSN: 2 (6 by Fall ’11) Xbox: 3 Market ($B) [3] 1.4 1.8 1.8 2.8 3.1 3.9 14.8 % of Total 9% 12% 12% 19% 21% 26% 100% Sources: Nielsen Home Scan, GfK, OCC, Rentrak, Screen Digest, Oanda.com (for exchange rates), SPHE Commercial Planning & Innovation; Secondary research [1] MSO VOD inclusive of Commercial Planning & Innovation estimates to account for unavailable Verizon IPTV Q4 data, and assume that Verizon accounts for 7.8% of MSO VOD txns and 8.1% of MSO VOD revenues [2] ROW includes Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Italy, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland; Brazil and Norway newly reporting, and therefore only included in Market size figure, not YoY variance figure. [3] Market figures based on $US exchange rates as of December 31, 2010 7
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Home Entertainment Market Update Global CY2011 April YTD Market Flash
US Physical & Digital Home Entertainment spend down -8% (CYTD through April, ’11 vs. ‘10) Physical spend down -10% Rental up +0.8% despite slate’s sharply lower Box Office Sell-through off -16% as: New Release Theatrical spend down -29% due to lower BO$ (-25%) and lower-performing home video genre mix Theatrical Catalog slid -10%; in comparison, SPHE -1.9% Digital spend up +9% EST +10%, Internet VOD +31%, Cable VOD +6% International Physical Retail down -14%
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Home Entertainment Market Update Trailing 12 Months: Market Events
Key Themes Examples Continued strength in consumption ‘at-home’ (transaction growth) However, consumers continue to face economic pressure (persistent unemployment in key territories, decreased theatrical admissions) This has resulted in consumers ‘trading down’ from higher-margin sell-through to innovative models with less favorable studio economics (kiosk, subscription) Shifting Consumer Patterns Highly intensive retailer-initiated store reconfigurations (e.g., Wal-Mart) Accelerated retailer conversion from DVD to BD ahead of consumer demand (lower initial productivity, especially in Catalog) Retailer closures and bankruptcy risk (Movie Gallery, Hollywood Video, Blockbuster) Retail Landscape Pressures Continued rise of VOD model offering higher-margin transactional rental Continued rise of lower-margin kiosk rental model capturing the impulse at a lower-margin (Redbox, NCR) Continued rise of lower-margin subscription rental model impacting Catalog and TV (Netflix, LOVEFiLM) Entry of traditional retail into new media (Wal-Mart/Vudu, Best Buy/Cinema Now, etc) Emerging Business Models Source: Secondary research 9
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Traditional Business Optimization Operating Model Enhancements
Home Entertainment Trailing 12 Months: SPHE Responses Response Areas Example Responses First distributor with 3D Blu-ray in the market (Cloudy) Launched HD-EST on iTunes and PSN Driving Ultraviolet launch (targeted for Fall 2011 with Bad Teacher) Testing early EST (2 weeks pre-DVD) as a potential new sell-through model Increased shift of VOD avails to day/date Extended international digital footprint from 10 to 19 account territories New Media Traditional Business Optimization Rolled-out domestic DVD inventory reduction strategy to deplete highest-risk inventory Launched manufacturing on-demand program to monetize deep Catalog Deployed a new trade promotion management system (Playbook) to drive ROI-based decision-making Assessing global footprint for opportunities to establish more efficient operating models (e.g., Sony United: Sony Music in Nordics; JVs: Australia; etc.) Outsourced European retail services group through JV (SRS) with DADC Assessing domestic outsourcing opportunities (e.g., order-to-cash) Operating Model Enhancements
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12/25/2017 Home Entertainment Responses Highlight: Managing Availability Windows (U.S.) 0 Days +60 Days +90 Days +120 Days +180 Days +1 year Theatrical Hotel & Airline DVD Sell-through and Brick & Mortar Rental 5 Early EST EST (Non-HBO Studios, incl. SPE) EST (HBO Studios) EST (HBO Studios) Blackout 4 Home Theater 1 PPV/ VOD Pay TV Pay TV Broadcast 2 Kiosk Rental 3 Subs. Rental 1 Day/Date PPV/VOD: Releasing increasing number of titles day/date (+30% lift) Kiosk Rental: Maintaining day/date due to above-market deal terms with Redbox Subscription Rental: Instituted 28-day window on >$50M DBO titles with Netflix Premium Home Theater: Launched at high-price +60 days (see next page for details) Early EST: Leading in testing EST product offer at two weeks pre-DVD release 2 3 4 5 11
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Initial Launch Approach
12/25/2017 Home Entertainment Managing Availability Windows: Premium Home Theater Rationale Recap Initial Launch Approach Earlier window VOD represents incremental high-dollar margin product opportunity with minimal anticipated risk of cannibalization Measurable lift to VOD product with earlier release (e.g., VOD std. window buy rate @ 2% vs. 3.5%) Ability to extend awareness created by theatrical marketing campaign Distribution partners generally put more marketing support behind ‘fresher’ product By days post-theatrical, 99% of average theatrical gross revenues generated Formulated as test at exhibitor-friendly window and ultra-premium price point Windowed at 60 days post-theatrical to minimize cannibalization risk Priced at $29.95 to ensure that any cannibalization is margin positive Security considerations limit addressable market to small number of households Preliminary results suggest product has potential and room for further refinement SPE tested in U.S. with Just Go With It and Battle:LA via DirectTV (<3MM capable HHs) with limited pre-promo marketing to appease exhibitors Still monitoring results for any theatrical or home entertainment cannibalization effects Warners (Hall Pass, Red Riding Hood), Universal (Adjustment Bureau), and Fox (Cedar Rapids) apparently testing same offer with DirectTV 12
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12/25/2017 Home Entertainment Managing Availability Windows: Premium Home Theater (cont.) Next Steps SPE intends to continue testing current product offer with additional titles (Soul Surfer) but will refrain from testing with any major summer releases Continue testing current product formulation to enable a meaningful set of results and comparisons Actively engaging theatrical and retail distribution partners in dialogue to maintain positive relations Other studios appear to remain committed Future In the medium-/long-term, premium home theater will likely continue a gradual roll-out that evolves to include an ownership model Continued emphasis on proper security restrictions limits growth in number of addressable HHs Active development of other distribution arrangements with eligible partners (Comcast, Verizon) Emphasis on ownership model (e.g., coupon to buy, add to Ultraviolet locker) likely next evolutionary step – unlikely to change pricing or windowing given cannibalization/retaliation issues 13
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Home Entertainment Key Strategies
SPHE pursuing a number of strategies that address the current reality and seek to shape the best possible future Advance Higher-Margin Models: advance higher-margin distribution models in physical and digital formats to fully exploit the potential of consumer transactions Manage Product Lifecycle: develop and execute fully-integrated commercial tactics to maximize profitability of our content across its lifecycle including disciplined planning to manage margin dilution from returns, rebates, and inventory Leverage Strategic Partnerships: fully leverage Sony United and 3rd party partners to bolster product portfolio, extend distribution reach, and drive efficiencies
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