1. Professor David Walwyn IAMOT 2017
Building the Hydrogen Economy through Niche Experimentation and Digitalisation
Professor David Walwyn
IAMOT 2017

2. Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle
Win a CD: what vehicle is this and what is the fuel consumption?

3. Overview of Presentation
Technological Innovation Systems
used to analyse
supports
supports
Sustainability Transitions
Hydrogen Economy
South Africa
Digitisation
(Grid Management) & Fuel Cell-Based Public Transport
essential to achieve

4. Sources of Energy
Source: IEA Statistics ,2015

5. Sankey Diagram (Global; EJ)
Direct Consumption
138
Coal
137
Industry
105
Transport
173
Natural Gas
105
Power Production
173
Residential
173
Renewables
Hydro, Biomass, Solar and Wind 73
Refineries and Other Transformation
181
Services
173
Nuclear 29
Non-Energy 35
Power Losses
118
Oil
173
Refinery Losses 34
Losses
146

6. Sankey Diagram (South Africa; TWh/annum)
Oil and Oil Products
340
Natural Gas 45
Nuclear 42
Renewables (Biomass/PV/Wind)
184
Power Plants
786
Non-Energy 50
Transport
208
Electricity
194
Heating
202
Coal
1,185
Liquification
197

7. South Africa’s Carbon Footprint (million MT/annum)

8. Meeting COP21 in South Africa; decarbonising energy, transport & industry
Biogas 20
Solar PV
300
Nuclear 42
Biomass
100
Hydrogen to Fuels
200
Electrolysis
Fuel Cell 50
Non-Energy
Transport
208
Electricity
Heating
Wind

9. Schematic of Hydrogen Fuel Cell (FC)
Gas Diffusion Layer
Electrolyte
Cathode
Anode e- O2
Air H2
Electric Current

10. Hydrogen Value Chain (South Africa)

11. South Africa and Platinum
Why are fuel cells important to South Africa?
South Africa’s output is 5.2 million ounces, equivalent to 72% of the total global production
41% of platinum market covers two applications within internal combustion engines (ICEs),
hardening of spark plug tips (to prevent corrosion)
auto-catalysts (to oxidise exhaust gases).
Neither of these applications will be required for battery electric vehicles
Given that the platinum loading is 0.5 to 1 g/kW, the annual platinum requirement for a scenario of a purely FC powered new car market would be about 90 million ounces

12. Existing FC Components Markets > $500 million

13. Perspectives on Global Markets
There are not yet any profitable companies
No viable applications with the exception of the use of fuel cells to convert freely-available hydrogen at the premises of existing chlor-alkali facilities to electricity and ‘island installations

14. Critical Development Targets
A reduction in the cost of hydrogen conversion and increased cost- efficiency of electrolysers is required for scaling the hydrogen economy
Growing pressure to phase out the use of diesel in public transport/heavy vehicles (McClellan, 1987). As a result, buses and underground mining capital equipment could be the earliest viable option for fuel cell technology and particularly for PEMFC

15. Theoretical Framework
Can new technologies in support of sustainability transitions become more dominant within their respective market applications?
Two approaches were selected for this study, namely the framework of technological innovation systems (TIS) (Bergek et al., 2008; Hekkert et al., 2011); and
Theoretical understanding of sustainability transitions (Markard et al., 2012), in particular the concept of niche management (Schot and Geels, 2008).

16. TIS
7 broad key areas that need to be addressed in the maturation of emerging innovation systems (Hekkert et al., 2011)
entrepreneurial experimentation and production (F1);
knowledge development (F2);
knowledge exchange and diffusion (F3);
guidance of the search (F4);
market formation (F5);
resource mobilization (F6); and
legitimation or counteracting resistance to change (F7).

17. Assessment Questionnaire-based
Overall system still in its formative phase

18. Niche Experimentation
Crucial demand side interventions which need to be driven by government:
use of fuel cells in the metropolitan public transport sector.
Buses operate on a round trip basis, which reduces the need for a distribution hydrogen infrastructure, and the present use of diesel in the inner city is considered to raise levels of dangerous particulates
Digital technologies will be critical to the management of supply fluctuations induced from an increasing dependence on renewable resources
Although integration of relatively low levels of renewables has not yet presented major concerns, this will not be the case at higher levels of penetration (Chudy et al., 2015), and the issue has already received widespread attention, becoming a subject of global research (Morales et al., 2013)

19. Component Strategy
Most of the short-term opportunities lie in the area of components and it is recommended that HySA should pursue a more aggressive strategy in this category.
Current market share targets of centres are too conservative (<0.5%)
Strategy should more aggressively target international markets for catalyst, inks, membrane electrode assemblies and stacks, including catalyst applications outside of PEMFC such as PAFC which also use platinum.
A strategy of more active marketing of fuel cell/electrolyser components will help to build relationships with the main fuel cell companies
Particularly, work to ensure that platinum will survive the likely decline of the internal combustion engine. PEMFC has a number of advantages in the automotive sector relative to alternative technologies, and could become the dominant technology.

20. Other Recommendations
Medium and Long Term strategy
Fuel Cell Power Plants with Combined Heat and Power: conversion of surplus hydrogen at single sites;
Stationary: fuel cell power plants using surplus hydrogen, rural electrification, small- scale mission critical applications;
Hydrogen Generators (ex-Electrolysis): single-site large scale users of pure hydrogen (Eskom, food industry, manufacturing).
Longer term, the market for FCEVs could overwhelm all other fuel cell products but there are two critical price points,
the capital cost of a fuel cell, which needs to decrease from the present level of >$3,000/kW to $1,500/kW,
cost of hydrogen ex electrolysis, which must fall from about $130/MWh to $30/MWh (as chemical hydrogen).

21. Conclusions Hydrogen can play a key role in the COP21 implementation
Use of TIS provides a high level of insight on the priorities for a fuel cell innovation system
Niche management seen as a critical area for public sector (Government) intervention
public transport
grid management

22. Answers to the Question?

23. Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle
What vehicle is this? Riverside Rasa
What is the fuel consumption? 250 mpg (a conventional ICE is 35 mpg)