1. Methodical guidelines for preparation of LITHUANIAN GHG emissions projections
Inga Konstantinavičiūtė,
A. Galinis, V. Miškinis, V. Bobinaitė, V. Lekavičius
Lithuanian energy institute
40th IAEE International Conference,
June 2017 Singapore

2. The main aim of the study
Striving to improve the quality of GHG emissions projections in Lithuania by linking the forecast of GHG emissions to the perspective development of the Lithuanian economic sectors the methodical guidelines for GHG emissions projections has been prepared.

3. Structure of methodical guidelines
General requirements for GHG emission projections
GHG emission reduction targets
Policies and measures for GHG emission reduction and
their impact assessment
Type of GHG emission sources
EU ETS sources
Non EU ETS sources
GHG emission by sources and removals by sinks
Energy
Industry
Transport
Commercial
Residential
Agriculture
Waste
LULUCF
Other
GHG emission by gas
CO2, N2O, CH4
Hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons
Methods for GHG emission projections
MESSAGE model
Statistical-econometrical

4. The general requirements of preparation of the GHG emissions projections
The general requirements of preparation of the GHG emissions projections are determined based on the analysis of international legislation that sets different requirements:
UNFCCC decisions
Regulations of the European Commission
Requirements for the Integrated National Energy and Climate Plans in the Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and the Council on the Governance of the Energy Union (30 November 2016)

5. Levels of GHG emission projections
I level
GHG emission projections by gas (CO2, CH4, N2O);
GHG emission projections by gas group (hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons)
II level
GHG emission projections according to the source categories (energy, manufacturing industries and construction, transport, commercial, residential, agriculture, waste and LULUCF).
III level
GHG emission projections without policies and measures (where available)
GHG emission projections with policies and measures;
GHG emission projections with additional policies and measures.
IV level
Total GHG emission projections;
Emission projections under EU ETS;
Emission projections for non EU ETS.

6. GHG emission reduction targets for Lithuania
Year
EU ETS sectors
Non EU ETS sectors
2020
- 21 % compared to 2005 level
+ 15 % compared to 2005 level
2030
- 43 % compared to 2005 level
- 9 % compared to 2005 level
Sources:
2020 EU climate and energy package legislation (Directive No. 2009/29/EC; Effort sharing decision No. 406/2009/EC).
Proposal for a directive of the European Parliament and of the Council amending Directive 2003/87/EC to enhance cost-effective emission reductions and low carbon investments COM(2015) 337 final, 2015.
Commission staff working document. Impact assessment. A policy framework for climate and energy in the period from 2020 up to SWD (2014), 2014.
20 July 2016 commission's proposal on binding greenhouse gas emission reductions for Member States ( ),
The mandatory binding target determined in the EU climate and energy policy strategy to will have influence on the implementation of Paris Agreement on climate change.

7. Policies and measures for the reduction of GHG emissions and their impact assessment
In the context of preparation the forecast of GHG emissions, policies and measures should be understood as they are defined in the Regulation No 525/2013:
„policies and measures means all instruments which aim to implement commitments under Article 4(2)(a) and (b) of the UNFCCC, which may include those that do not have the limitation and reduction of GHG emissions as a primary objective“.

8. Scenarios of GHG emissions
The main aim of the forecast of GHG emissions is to provide likely forecast of GHG emissions considering to the national circumstances, existing and planned measures to reduce climate change.
Countries have to submit three scenarios on GHG emissions:
projections with measures WEM (policies and measures that have been adopted and implemented);
projections with additional measures WAM (policies and measures which have been adopted and implemented to mitigate climate change as well as policies and measures which are planned for that purpose);
projections without measures WOM (exclude the effects of all policies and measures which are planned, adopted or implemented after the year chosen as the starting point for the relevant projection).

9. The link between three scenarios of GHG emissions projections
t0= tn= Year
WEM scenario
WAM scenario
WOM scenario
Actual volume of GHG emissions
Forecasted volime of GHG emissions
Ex-post impact of implemented PaM on emissions
Ex-ante impact of implemented PaM on emissions
Ex-ante impact of planned PaM on emissions
Volume of emissions, CO2 eq.

10. Total GHG emission trend in Lithuania
In 2014, EU-ETS sector in Lithuania amounted 6.86 Mt CO2 eqv. and covered 34.7% of total GHG emissions including:
60% due to fuel combustion;
40% due to industrial processes.

11. Emission trend under ETS
In 2014, fuel combustion installations under EU-ETS covered about 40% of Lithuania's total GHG emissions from fuel combustion and industrial installations - about 90% of all industrial processes emissions.
During period emission from fuel combustion activities under EU-ETS decreased by 1,6 times.
Emission from industrial processes increased significantly from 2013 due to the fact that GHG emissions from ammonia and nitric acid production were included in EU-ETS.

12. GHG emission projections methodology according to the source category
GHG emission source categories
Energy
Industrial processes
Agriculture
LULUCF
Waste

13. GHG emission structure in Lithuania

14. GHG emission projections methodology by different source categories (1)
GHG emissions projections is inherent from the analysis of prospective development of economic sectors.
The perspective development of different economic sectors has impacts on GHG emissions, however, implementation of targets set for reduction of GHG emissions (i.e. limits for projected volume of GHG emissions) has a feedback impact on the development of economic activities.
Seeking to increase the soundness of forecasts of GHG emissions, their preparation has to be closely related to the analysis of the prospective development of energy, industry, transport and other sectors.

15. GHG emission projections methodology by different source categories (2)
A GHG emissions forecasting requires an integrated approach and modern tools used for modelling developments of all branches of economy and assessing emissions.
Methodological guidelines for preparation of GHG emissions projections are based on the integrated approach to prospective development of economic branches, and at the same assess the possibilities of current status.
In this stage recommended methods and tools for the preparation of GHG emissions in different economic sectors differ in their detail and ease of use, however, over time, coupled with more information, they can be improved, new methods learned and the balance between the optimal development of economic sectors and environmental impacts reached.

16. Stages of GHG emission projections
Analysis of historical trends of GHG emissions
Identification of GHG emissions projections factors (economical, social, technological and etc.)
Methods of GHG emission projections
Data collection and processing, determination of emission factors
Preparation of GHG emission projections
Impact assessment of policies and measures, modelling of the different scenarios
Sensitivity analysis
Results analysis

17. 1. ENERGY 1.A Fuel combustion Energy industries
Electricity and heat production
Petroleum refining
Other energy industries
Manufacturing industries and combustion
Transport
Civil aviation
Road transportation
Railways
Water navigation
Other transport
Other sectors
Commercial
Residential
Agriculture

18. Methodology of energy industries GHG emission projections
Seeking to forecast GHG emissions in energy industries sector, it is recommended to apply methodology which is based on the optimization of the perspective development of energy sector considering to the environmental aspects.
Comprehensive mathematical models, adopted MESSAGE software, can be used to analyse the perspective development of energy sector and environmental consequences.

19. MESSAGE
Model for Energy Supply System Alternatives and their General Environmental Impacts
It is an energy supply model, representing the energy conversion and utilization processes of the energy system and their environmental impacts;
It is an optimization model which from the set of existing and possible new technologies select the optimal in terms of selected criterion mix of technologies;
The mathematical method used in the model is linear programming;
A techno-economic or engineering approach is applied, i.e. the model represents the energy system by its technological structure, aiming at the optimization of this structure, generally with respect to energy systems costs;
It is used for development of medium-term strategies, the planning horizon being in the order of 30 years;
It is an energy and environmental model, enabling the user to carry out integrated analysis of the energy sector development and its environmental impacts.

20. Methodology of fuel combustion in other sectors
GHG emissions projections
In general, many of factors can only be evaluated in a complex modelling of energy sector development trends in the long run together with the analysis of the links between energy and the economy.
Consumption of fuel in manufacturing industries and construction, commercial/institutional, household and agriculture can be forecasted by:
MAED (Model for analysis of energy demand) model;
Econometric model.
The projections of GHG emissions in this sector can be prepared considering relation between the likely development of various branches and fuel needs for the production.
When prospective fuel demand is determined, the emissions from fuel combustion can be calculated based on GHG emissions accounting method.

21. Methodology of transport sector GHG emissions projections
There are different ways how to model transport sector.
One of them - the transport sector in the aggregate form is included into the mathematical model for the analysis of the perspective development of energy sector and GHG emission. When the main structural changes in transport sector are estimated they can be incorporated into the COPERT mathematical model.
Another option – a detailed mathematical model for the assessment of perspective development of transport sector and GHG emissions can created by applying the MESSAGE software. It can be connected to the energy sector prospective development model and in such a way an overall optimization of the development all economy sectors and GHG emissions reduction is enabled.

22. GHG emission projections methodology according to the source category
GHG emission source categories
Energy
Industrial processes
Agriculture
LULUCF
Waste
Methods based on the IPCC Guidelines for national GHG inventories taking into account projection factors, emission factors and other calculation parameters are recommended to apply for other source categories.

23. Analysis of economy sectors development, application of various policies and measures and GHG emission projections are extremely linked to each other.
This issue is taken into consideration in the proposal on the Governance of the Energy Union. Under this proposal EU Member States will have to prepare an integrated national energy and climate plan for by 2019.
GHG emissions projections requires an integrated-complex approach and application of the modern tools for analysis of all economy sectors development and emission assessment.

24. Inga Konstantinavičiūtė
Thank you for your attention!
Inga Konstantinavičiūtė