1. The Long-Term Effects of Universal Primary Education:
March
2017
The Long-Term Effects of Universal Primary Education:
Evidence from Ethiopia, Malawi, and Uganda
Carina Omoeva, Director, Research and Evaluation
Wael Moussa, Research Scientist, Research and Evaluation

2. Long-term: Did gains in schooling translate into …
Research Questions
Medium-term: Did the expansion of tuition-free primary education in Eastern Africa impact attainment?
Long-term: Did gains in schooling translate into …
improved adolescent sexual, fertility, and marriage behavior?
Improved labor market returns (labor force activity, employment, salaried employment)?

3. However, gains in schooling only translated to…
Preview of Findings
Mean years of schooling increased as a result of UPE in all three countries
Gains among females were higher than for males
Literacy gains also higher among females relative to males
Across all countries, gains in schooling translate to benefits in the form of lower likelihood…
to engage in sexual activity
to get married
to give birth
However, gains in schooling only translated to…
increased employment in Ethiopia
shift in employment type in Malawi and Uganda

4. Current literature on effects of UPE is sparse
Why is this important?
Current literature on effects of UPE is sparse
includes effects on access and enrollment, but not long-term effects
Sub-Saharan Africa underwent aggressive expansion of access to primary education
Especially in the last 15 years with several African countries pursuing similar strategy
UPE policies had explicit focus on gender equity
Implications on effectiveness of free-tuition policies—at least at the primary level

5. Contributions to the Literature
Our research examines direct effects of UPE (at a national scale) on educational attainment
Evaluate UPE at least 20 years post-implementation
Affected populations are now adults, so we can assess the effects on post-schooling outcomes
Add to existing literature by investigating outcomes beyond access and/or primary completion
Use UPE as an instrumental variable to identify causal links between schooling and early adult outcomes

6. Country Context
Ethiopia eliminated school fees starting in 1994 in primary education and first two years of secondary
Implemented at a time when country underwent regime change
Implementation was not smooth as not all woredas (districts) adopted the policy at the same time
UPE was fully implemented by 1996
Malawi originally followed a staggered implementation schedule starting in 1991 and 1992 eliminating school fees in primary 1 and primary 2, respectively
In 1994, country opted to follow the ‘big bang’ approach and provide tuition-free access to all primary school nationwide
In addition to free tuition, learning materials were provided and school uniform requirements were removed

7. First Eligible Cohorts
Country Context
Uganda instituted a free and compulsory primary school policy in 1996, which went into effect in 1997
Implementation was nationwide and simultaneous— also followed the ‘big bang’ approach
Tuition became free, textbooks were provided at no charge, and school uniforms were no longer required
Country
Policy Year
Eligible Age
First Eligible Cohorts
LSMS Year
DHS Year
Ethiopia
1994
years
2013
2011
Malawi
years
2010
Uganda
1997
years

8. Country Context

9. Data
Data are drawn from two sources: World Bank’s Living Standards Measurement Survey (LSMS) and the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS)—for all three countries
LSMS provides data on schooling attainment and labor market outcomes
DHS provides data on schooling attainment coupled with behaviors regarding sexual activity, fertility, and marriage prior to 18th birthday
Restrict analytic samples to cohorts who are between 22 and 42 years old at the time of the most recent survey (LSMS)

10. UPE eligibility is composed of two groups:
Empirical Strategy
Treat schooling as endogenous with UPE eligibility as instrumental variables
UPE eligibility is composed of two groups:
Partial exposure – these are cohorts who were eligible for UPE but not from start of primary school
Full exposure – cohorts who were UPE eligible for a full primary school cycle
As a result,
First stage regressions capture impacts of UPE assignment on years of schooling
Second stage regressions capture causal effects of schooling on outcomes via UPE mechanism
Effects are local (LATE) and not general

11. We run the following two-stage least squares (2SLS) regression system
Empirical Strategy
We run the following two-stage least squares (2SLS) regression system
First stage:
δ 1 and δ 2 capture ITT effects of UPE on schooling completion
Second stage:
Parameter of interest is λ, which captures the causal relationship between schooling and outcomes
If exclusion restrictions are satisfied
If instruments are not weak

12. UPE and Years of Schooling

13. UPE and Years of Schooling – Malawi

14. UPE and Years of Schooling – Uganda

15. First Stage Results Male Female LSMS DHS Pr(Literate) Schooling
Male
Female
LSMS
DHS
Pr(Literate)
Schooling
Ethiopia:
Eligible for UPE by age 7
0.133***
0.625**
0.233***
1.570***
1.412***
(0.031)
(0.268)
(0.026)
(0.189)
(0.129)
Eligible for UPE by age 12
-0.003
0.627***
0.009
0.257
0.339***
(0.236)
(0.024)
(0.161)
(0.117)
Malawi:
Eligible for UPE by age 6
0.018
-0.196
0.042**
0.795***
0.283***
(0.017)
(0.221)
(0.019)
(0.091)
Eligible for UPE by age 11
0.047***
0.215
0.116***
0.485**
1.253***
(0.018)
(0.208)
(0.021)
(0.196)
(0.087)
Uganda:
0.013
-1.734***
0.059*
-0.741
-0.145
(0.037)
(0.615)
(0.035)
(0.466)
(0.303)
0.086***
0.275
0.170***
2.120***
1.393***
(0.028)
(0.331)
(0.030)
(0.369)
(0.244)

16. Second Stage Results – Adolescent Behavior
Teen sex
Teen marriage
Teen birth
Ethiopia:
Sample mean
0.696
0.646
0.413
Schooling (IV)
-0.042**
-0.075***
-0.102***
(0.019)
(0.024)
(0.026)
Malawi:
0.644
0.551
0.386
-0.057***
-0.029*
-0.033**
(0.015)
Uganda:
0.511
0.203
-0.061***
-0.064***
-0.058***
(0.017)
(0.018)

17. Second Stage Results – Adolescent Behavior
If we translate the UPE schooling gains to estimated returns to schooling, then…
Probability of age at first sexual activity < 18 years
decreased by 10.8% in Ethiopia, 17.4% in Malawi, and 30.8% in Uganda
Probability of age at first marriage < 18 years
decreased by 16% in Ethiopia, 8% in Malawi, and 10.8% in Uganda
Probability of age at first birth < 18 years
Decreased by 17.1% in Ethiopia, 18.8% in Malawi, and 35.8% in Uganda

18. Second Stage Results – Labor Market Outcomes
Active
Employed
Salaried
Poor
Ethiopia:
Sample mean
0.646
0.504
0.07
0.355
Schooling (IV)
0.023
0.046
0.007
-0.009
(0.030)
(0.035)
(0.016)
(0.019)
Malawi:
0.801
0.62
0.065
0.374
-0.019
0.032
0.080***
-0.025*
(0.053)
(0.061)
(0.031)
(0.014)
Uganda:
0.908
0.826
0.102
0.358
-0.006
0.010
0.024
-0.013
(0.026)
(0.028)
(0.015)

19. Second Stage Results – Labor Market Outcomes
If we translate the UPE schooling gains to estimated returns to schooling, then…
Probability of being active in the labor force
increased by 6.4% in Ethiopia, close to zero effect in Malawi or Uganda
Probability of being employed
increased by 16.4% in Ethiopia, 7.7% in Malawi, and no effect in Uganda
Probability of salaried employment
Increased by 18% in Ethiopia, 184% in Malawi, and 29.4% in Uganda
Probability of being in poverty
Decreased by 10% in Malawi, 4.5% in Uganda, and no effect in Ethiopia

20. Policy Implications and Discussion
UPE is an effective policy tool to boost schooling/attainment
We provide evidence that more schooling lowers the incidence of sexual activity, marriage, and child birth among adolescents or younger
Estimated effect sizes are consistent with literature evaluating small-scale programs in the same/similar countries
See Erulkar and Muthengi (2009), Baird et al. (2010), Bandiera et al. (2010), among others
This implies that the mechanism of subsidizing education can be effective in influencing non-educational outcomes at a national scale

21. Policy Implications and Discussion
Employment effects of schooling are shown to be somewhat small in all three countries
However, we observe an increase in salaried employment in Malawi and Uganda
This would imply that the increase in schooling may not have greatly influenced the overall labor market, but created a shift in the employment composition
Effects on poverty were relatively small as well since only a small proportion is able to move out of the bottom 40% of wealth

22. Further Research
Is subsidizing education to improve health/fertility/marriage outcomes more cost-effective than a targeted intervention/policy?
Increased schooling yields lower returns in the labor market relative to the returns from adolescent behavior
Lends support to the hypothesis that more schooling may not always mean more learning and skill acquisition