1. South Lanarkshire December 2016
Skills Assessments
South Lanarkshire
December 2016

2. Introduction An Introduction to Skills Assessments
Key Data for South Lanarkshire
Implications for Skills Investment Planning

3. An Introduction to Skills Assessments

4. What are Skills Assessments?
A single, agreed evidence base on which to base future investment in skills, built up from existing datasets
Partnership between Skills Development Scotland, Highlands and Islands Enterprise, Scottish Enterprise, the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development Group.
Purpose:
Support SFC, Regional Colleges, Strategic Bodies and College Boards in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements (ROAs) for Academic Years
Provide a framework for aligning SDS investment in individuals and businesses
Assist partners in planning their strategic investment in skills
Highlight gaps in national and regional skills evidence

5. Why are they important for skills planning?
They provide a high quality and consistent source of evidence about economic and skills performance delivery at various spatial levels.
They can be used to identify strengths and any issues or mismatches arising, and so inform thinking about future planning and investment.
They are accessible online to support all partners in their planning.
They provide a core evidence base to support the Scottish Skills Planning Model.

6. Scottish Skills Planning Model

7. What do they cover?
Economic Performance, Profile of the Workforce, People and Skills, Education and Training (MAs, Schools, FE and HE), Other Economic Activity, Skills Mismatches and Forecasting
Underpinned by the 2016 data matrix of 7 workbooks, containing data on over 100 social and economic indicators
With data at various spatial levels: Regions; City Region Deal; Local Authority
The matrix only draws upon official datasets (including APS, BRES, UKCES, UK Business Counts, Census, Scot Gov datasets) and partner data (SFC, SDS, SE, HIE).
The data matrix is found here:
This slide pack provides a summary of the data for this area

8. Local Authority Overview
An area experiencing adjustment and recovery from impact of recession on production sector
Benefiting from location at the hub of Scotland’s transport network with easy access to jobs and markets in the central belt, combined with rural and remote areas with isolation from services and job opportunities
An area with pockets of disadvantage where barriers to employment persist for certain groups

9. Business Trends
Growing business base, slightly faster than the national average (8% compared to 7%) (2010 – 2015)
635 new businesses including: Professional, Scientific and Technical (+125) and Business Administration and Support (+100)
88% businesses by 0-9 employees (Scotland 88%)
25 businesses employ more than 250 people
Business density lower than national average per 10,000 residents (267 versus 313)
Self-employment stable at 10.6% versus 10.8% nationally
Growth Sector share of business base below Scottish average but increasing (4% in most recent period)
Business well represented across several Growth Sectors: ‘Financial and Business Services’ (36%), ‘Sustainable Tourism’ (20%) , ‘Creative Industries’(20%), ‘Food & Drink (19%) (2015)
26% of employment in Growth Sectors versus 28% national average (2014)

10. Population and Projections
Total population 316,230
6% of Scotland (2015)
Small increase in population over the past year (0.3% v 0.5% nationally)
Over the last ten years population growth has lagged the national average (3% v 5%)
Ageing population, with reduction in 0-15 year olds and large increase in proportion of those 65 years and over
Population change
Forecast Population Growth,
Total population to increase by small margin (+2%) to 2037
However, proportion that are working age will drop substantially at greater rate than nationally (-13%, compared to -4% nationally)

11. Workforce Trends
Total employment in South Lanarkshire = 116,100 (5% of Scottish total)
Employment growth uneven and fallen by 2% (+3% Scotland)
38% work in higher level occupations (42% nationally) (2015)
76% of employed population work in private sector (77% nationally)
24% of employees work part-time (26% nationally)
3.8% in non-permanent employment (5.3% nationally)
Note: Data on total employment relates to 2014, having been prepared in advance of 2015 BRES release.

12. Employment and Unemployment
Employment rate of 76%, 3ppt higher than the national rate (73%) (2015)
50% working in home LA (moderate level of out-commuting)
13% working in rest of region, 37% outside Lanarkshire RSA
Key areas for out-commuting are Glasgow City (26%) and North Lanarkshire (12%)
The unemployment rate in South Lanarkshire was below the national average (5% v. 6%), unemployment fell by -1.1ppts which was greater than the national decline (-0.4ppts)
90% of year olds are participating in South Lanarkshire and 4% are not, in line with the national averages (2016)

13. Qualifications and Earnings
38% of the working age population hold SCQF 7+ qualifications, somewhat below national average (43%) (2015)
Resident (£531) and workplace (£535) earnings close to national average

14. Modern Apprenticeships
Schools
Modern Apprenticeships
Education and Training
The secondary school roll in 2015 was 46,651, 16.6% of Scotland total
92% school leavers had a positive destination in 2015 in line with the Scotland trend
MA uptake decreased 2%, from 2014/15 to 1,645
6% of national total in 2015/16
Construction most popular framework group, 21% uptake
Heavily gender segregated - 100% male
76% achievement rate 2015/16
Please note: College and University data is presented at Lanarkshire RSA level and comprises data for North Lanarkshire, South Lanarkshire and East Dunbartonshire
Fife

15. Further and Higher Education
In 2015/16, at New College Lanarkshire and South Lanarkshire College there were 21,990 enrolments
8% of Scotland’s total
79% FE and 21% HE
Top three subjects:
Full-time: Care, Hairdressing, beauty and comp therapies, Engineering
Part-time: Care, Special programmes, Construction
61% successful completion of FE courses
There were over 4,000 students at the one HEI in the region, UWS Hamilton, in 2014/15
Top three subjects:
Subjects Allied to Medicine, Business & Admin, Biological Sciences
HE/FE data is available at Lanarkshire regional level only and comprises of data from East Dunbartonshire, North Lanarkshire and South Lanarkshire. Data relates to enrolments at FE and HE Institutions in the region, not residents unless otherwise stated. Data provided by SFC and HESA

16. Jobs and Skills Changes (1)
Total employment (jobs) is forecast to show no change from 2016 to 2024, across Scotland as a whole 0.2% growth on average each year is expected. This equates to 40 less jobs in the region by Administrative and support and construction activities are expected to enjoy growth of 800 jobs each over the forecast. However such gains will be offset by falling employment within the manufacturing and public sectors. The number of jobs within manufacturing is expected to fall by 1,600 jobs and the number of jobs within public administration and defence is expected to fall by 800 jobs over the forecast.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Total Employment Growth
South Lanarkshire Employment
% annual average change
Change in total jobs (‘000s),
Note: chart uses total employment (jobs) rather than total employment (people).
The former figure will be higher as a person can have more than one job.
Source: ONS / Oxford Economics
Glasgow

17. Jobs and Skills Changes (2)
Replacement demand will result in 45,000 openings within South Lanarkshire over the forecast. Expansion demand is expected to result in 100 less openings between Together with replacement demand, this will result in 44,900 openings over this period. Openings will be highest in professional and elementary occupations , with both experiencing replacement and expansion demand. The total requirement for workers in sales and customer service and skilled trades occupations is also expected to rise significantly over the period.
Forecast Demand for Jobs ( )
Notes:
table uses total requirement (people)
totals may vary from previous slide due to rounding within the body of the table
Source: Oxford Economics
Glasgow

18. Implications for Skills Investment Planning

19. South Lanarkshire: Key Implications (1).
Key Labour Market Changes and Dynamics
There was good jobs growth in 2015 in South Lanarkshire, with 1,700 more jobs at a time of very limited jobs growth across Scotland. At the same time, job numbers have been erratic since the recession, and there are still 2% fewer jobs than in 2009.
There were also sector shifts in There were job increases in the public services of health (+800) and education (+600), and in accommodation & food services (+700), wholesale (+700) and construction (+300). There were also modest increases in the higher value added finance and information and communications sectors. At the same time, there were significant losses in production (-1,100) and in professional and business services (-900). Overall, there has been a shift towards public sector and lower value added services.
The business base continues to grow, and recently at a rate above the Scotland average, and overall output growth has started to increase after a period of decline. Output per worker remains just below the Scotland level. South Lanarkshire has the twin challenge of maintaining (and increasing) competitiveness in the manufacturing sector while continuing to make the transition to a knowledge-based economy. Progress in the latter has slowed.
Glasgow

20. South Lanarkshire: Key Implications (2).
Skills demand and supply
The population has increased over the last 10 years but at a rate below the Scotland average. It is forecast to grow by just 2% to 2037, more slowly than Scotland, and there will be 13% fewer of working age to More than a third commutes outside Lanarkshire, with a challenge to grow the local jobs base.
More are employed in administrative & secretarial, sales & customer services, and as operatives than the Scotland average. There will be strong replacement demand in these sectors, as well as professional and elementary roles, some 45,000 openings overall despite no overall jobs growth. There is a challenge to replace forecast job reductions in manufacturing and the public services with higher value added services, whilst meeting employer demand in strong existing sectors, including business services and accommodation & food services.
26% go into work from school, just below the national average.
The top MA frameworks are construction (by far the highest), health & social care (with sport), retail & customer services, administration & related and hospitality & tourism. There are fewer in engineering & energy, despite the number of jobs.
Glasgow

21. South Lanarkshire: Key Implications (3).
Recommended Areas of Focus
Priorities for South Lanarkshire include:
Increasing the number of local jobs. Job numbers are still below 2009 levels. Forecast manufacturing and public service jobs will need replaced.
Increasing the quality of jobs. There is a need to continue to make the transition to a more knowledge-based economy, and equip the workforce to access these jobs.
Creating a culture of employer investment. Employers continue to need to be encouraged to invest and innovate, which includes investment in skills.
Meeting the skills needs of employers. There are important local sectors, including manufacturing, health, business services and tourism. Local skills activity should continue to be focused on employer demand.
A need for progression routes and pathways. Demand for skills in the region is strongest for professional and elementary occupations, as well as sales, administration and care. Progression needs engendered and supported.
A need for flexible provision. Non traditional employment is increasing, and this means less conventional career paths, and movement between sectors. Skills provision must be equally flexible, with work-based learning routes part of this.
Glasgow