1. Population and Migration
Illegal Migrants entering Greece
Population and Migration
Where is Global Labor going to be in the 21st century
The Past
Demographics and Migration

2. Demographics and Migration
Objectives
Review major points on Malthus
Where is the World’s Population today and Why?
Where will the World’s labor be concentrated in the 21st Century and Why.
Migration model and impacts
Demographics and Migration

3. Demographics and Migration
Malthus
Hypothesis: In a nutshell food increases arithmetically but population increases geometrically
Result: Eventually food supply drops below demand
Demographics and Migration

4. Demographics and Migration
Malthus
What will happen/can be done?
Positive checks – later marriage, contraception
Negative checks -- Starvation
East India Company College
Malthus' position as professor at the British East India Company training college gave his theories considerable influence over Britain's administration of India … The most significant result was that the official response to India's periodic famines, The famines were regarded as necessary to keep the "excess" population in check. In some cases even private efforts to transport food into famine-stricken areas were forbidden.
Demographics and Migration

5. Demographics and Migration
Malthus’s Errors
Industrial Revolution resulted in growth of food output exceeding population growth
Mid-latitude grass lands offer great expanses of new fertile agriculture land
Births not controlled by genes, controlled by social factors
Industrial Revolution results in Demographic Transition – Population growth declines
Demographics and Migration

6. Demographics and Migration
Neo-Malthusians
In the long run Malthus will be correct
It is not just too many bodies (supply)
It is also consumption (demand)
resources will be exhausted
Club of Rome – Limits to Growth
doomsday model predicting collapse of global environment within decades
Dr Blackmore declared: "For the planet's sake, I hope we have bird flu or some other thing that will reduce the population, because otherwise we're doomed.“ Nightwaves, BBC Radio 3, Nov. 5, 2008.
Demographics and Migration

7. Demographics and Migration
Neo-Malthusians
Will the world collapse?
Doomsdayer’s continue to predict immanent collapse
Lester Brown among most prominent
The Washington Post called Lester Brown "one of the world's most influential thinkers." The Telegraph of Calcutta refers to him as "the guru of the environmental movement." In 1986, the Library of Congress requested his personal papers noting that his writings "have already strongly affected thinking about problems of world population and resources."
Demographics and Migration

8. Demographics and Migration
Where are we headed?
Demographics and Migration

9. Where has World Population been Centered (Big 4 plus 1)
Five major world concentration
Asia
1.East Asia
2. South Asia
Southeast Asia
Europe
3. Western Europe
North America
4. East Coast US and Canada
Demographics and Migration

10. Demographics and Migration
World Population Centers -- Today
Demographics and Migration

11. Demographics and Migration

12. Demographics and Migration
Class Exercise
What are the causes of today’s 4 major population centers in the world
Where might the World’s Migration Streams (origins & destinations) be centered in the 2025?
Why?
What will the impacts be to labor markets, environment, consumption…?
Demographics and Migration

13. Demographics and Migration
Why such centers?
Environmental Factors
Climate
Topography
Quality of Land Resources
Water
Human Factors
Industrial Development
Demographic Transition
Demographics and Migration

14. Demographics and Migration
World Land Use Patterns
How does this affect population concentrations???
Note that Manufacturing is concentrated in 4 of the 5 centers
Demographics and Migration

15. Demographics and Migration

16. Demographics and Migration
Population Density --Global Pattern vs. Dryland Pattern
Of the 5 major concentrations only parts of two of them occur in part in semi-arid regions
Demographics and Migration

17. Note Location of 2002 Famines in Africa and Crude Death Rates
Crude Death Rate (deaths/1,000 population)
Demographics and Migration

18. Demographics and Migration
US Population Density
What is the cause of low density here?
Demographics and Migration

19. Demographics and Migration
Note growth and decline in arid west
Demographics and Migration

20. Demographics and Migration
Changes in World Population Distribution
Demographics and Migration

21. Where are future migrants coming from???
Demographics and Migration

22. Demographics and Migration
How this effects the environment, the world, and us
Note the 4 Major impacts on the First World
Demographics and Migration

23. Demographics and Migration

24. Demographics and Migration
E.G. (Ernest George) Ravenstein ( )
A geographer by trade, most of Ravenstein’s published works on migration came after his retirement in He spent his career in the Topographical and Statistical Department of the War Office of England after moving there from Germany in While in their employ he produced numerous publications and maps primarily dealing with Africa. His migration research, especially his two papers on the “laws of migration” were very influential on later work dealing with the structure and process of migration. Although his work focused on current migrations and he was not an archaeologist; Ravenstein had a major impact on migration studies across many disciplines.
Demographics and Migration

25. Ravenstein’s Laws of Migration
1) DISTANCE DECAY: Most migrants only proceed a short distance, and toward centers of absorption.
2) BACK FILLING: As migrants move toward absorption centers, they leave "gaps" that are filled up by migrants from more remote districts, creating migration flows that reach to "the most remote corner of the kingdom."
3) ABSORPTION: The process of dispersion is inverse to that of absorption.
4) COUNTER CURRENT: Each main current of migration produces a compensating counter-current.
5) URBAN CENTER PULL: Migrants proceeding long distances generally go by preference to one of the great centers of commerce or industry.
6) RURAL PUSH The natives of towns are less migratory than those of the rural parts of the country.
7) GENDER SELECTIVE: Females are more migratory than males.
Demographics and Migration

26. Demographics and Migration
Prehistoric Migration of humans
Demographics and Migration

27. Demographics and Migration
Migration in Action
Demographics and Migration

28. Demographics and Migration
Migration: Impacts on Wages
Demographics and Migration

29. Demographics and Migration
Take time to dissect Fig. 3.34
Demographics and Migration

30. Demographics and Migration
Fig 3.34 Shows
Supply of Labor increases in MDC decreases in LDC due to migration
“Average” Wages in MDC drop, Wages in LDC increase due to migration
For the work force modeled average Standard of Living increases in LDC decreases in MDC (???) Depends also on how goods and services are impacted by lower labor cost – expect trade gains
Demographics and Migration

31. Demographics and Migration
Fig 3.34 Shows
However, historical experience has shown trade and productivity gains thus Quality of Life could increases in both places
However, what if surplus labor in LDC over- whelms the market (internal migrants) wages don’t rise, but under/un-employment drops still a great benefit in LDC
Use rural to urban migration in China as a demonstration of pent-up labor demand
Demographics and Migration

32. Demographics and Migration
Reactions???
Demographics and Migration

33. Demographics and Migration
The West
Demographics and Migration

34. Pro Immigration Canada
Demographics and Migration

35. Demographics and Migration

36. European Migrant Crisis
Demographics and Migration

37. Demographics and Migration

38. What about migration within EU?
Demographics and Migration

39. How about Guest Workers?
Demographics and Migration

40. Demographics and Migration
UK reaction to Poles
Minute 7:00 really good
Demographics and Migration

41. To go with PEW reading on Migration
Demographics and Migration