California’s Future Home Buyers

California’s Future Home Buyers
What You Need to Know August 31, 2017 Jordan G. Levine Senior Economist

Methodology Online Only Survey conducted from April 2017 - May 2017
Total respondents : 1721 Respondent Ethnicity: Black: 124, Latino (over-sampled): 924, Asian: 157, White: 459, Native American: 52 Respondent Age: Boomer (50+): 389; Gen-Xers (36-49): 475; Millennial (18-34): 852 Respondent Gender: Female: 1001, Male 715 Survey Sampling attempted to match renter demographics of each age by ethnicity by gender. Sampling quotas were matched to Census ACS 2014 for CA renters based on these characteristics Post-survey stratified weighting was applied to correct age sampling, and a Latino oversample

California Renter Demographics
Who's Renting California Renter Demographics

Many more renters: cyclical AND structural forces at play
U.S. Census – Current Population Survey, AESC

Renting not just for the income challenged anymore
20% 40% 60% 2000 2005 2010 2015 Percent of Group Year Household Income < $50,000 $50,000 – $74,999 $75,000 – $99,999 $100,000 – $199,999 > $200,000 California Renters by Population U.S. Census - American Community Survey

Basic Demographics

Survey respondents generally mapped to Census
44% 36% 20% 0% 10% 30% 40% 50% Millennials Gen-X Boomers + Percent n: 1716 What's your age? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

43% in Apartments, 40% in SFH, 10% in Townhomes
2% 3% 40% 10% 20% 30% 50% Apartment Single family home Townhome / Duplex / Triplex Not Sure Mobile Home Other ADU / Granny-Flat Percent n: 1716 What type of home is it? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Single-family rentals more popular: adds to supply issue
U.S. Census – Current Population Survey, AESC

Most live in 2BR homes How many bedrooms are in your home? 0% 10% 30%
1% 20% 34% 27% 13% 3% 0% 10% 30% 40% 1 2 3 4 5 6 Per cent n: 1716 How many bedrooms are in your home? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Renters move A LOT or hunker down, small middle
23% 15% 12% 19% 17% 10% 3% 1% 0% 20% <1 Year 1-2 Years 2-3 Years 4-5 Years 6-10 Years 11-20 Years Years > 30 Years Percent n: 1716 How many years have you been renting your current residence? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

As with resales, Boomers don’t move, Millennials do
0% 10% 20% 30% <1 Year 1-2 Years 2-3 Years 4-5 Years 6-10 Years 11-20 Years Years > 30 Years Percent Millennials Gen-X Boomers + n: 1716 How many years have you been renting your current residence? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Not only not moving, not even looking #affordability
40% 47% 31% 37% 54% 0% 10% 20% 30% 50% 2016 2017 Percent Millennials Gen-X Boomers + n(2017): ; n(2016): 1998 Have you searched for a cheaper rental within the past year? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Rents ~ $1300 per month and 37% split w/roommates
10% 20% 14% 17% 7% 3% 2% 0% 5% 15% 25% $0k - $499 $500 - $749 $750 - $999 $ $1249 $ $1499 $ $1999 $ $2499 $ $2999 $3000 + Percent n: mean : $1, median : $1,200 How much is the monthly rent of your home? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Affordability just as big an issue for renters
California Average Asking Rent SERIES: California asking rent and household income SOURCE: California Department of Housing and Community Development, Census Bureau Decennial Census, American Community Survey

Not slowing down: rent up for more than half of respondents
6% 3% 2% 0% 12% 18% 30% 14% 10% 20% -100% to -25% -25% to -10% -10% to -1% 1% to 10% 11% to 25% 26% to 50% 50% to 100% 101% to 150% 151% to 199% 200% + Percentage Change Percent n: mean : 33.9% median : 13.3% How much has the monthly rent changed since you moved? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Which matches perceptions of neighborhood affordability
20% 30% 36% 11% 2% 0% 10% 40% Much worse Somewhat worse About the same Somewhat better Much better Percent n: 1677 In the past year has housing affordability in your area gotten... ? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Renters don't seem to particularly enjoy renting

Too expensive and don’t suit their needs
19% 10% 13% 7% 12% 8% 6% 4% 3% 5% 1% Too large to maintain Bad relations with landlord Location - too far from needs Other It doesn't allow pets There is no parking The place is noisy Violence / worsening neighborhood The rent increased by too much It's not well maintained The rent is too high Too small, not enough space Nothing, I love my place 0% 15% 20% Percent Reason n: 1721 What do you dislike about your current residence? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Older folks more satisfied, everybody worried about rents
23% 21% 15% 10% 14% 13% 11% 3% 5% 6% 0% 20% Nothing, I love my place Too small, not enough space The rent is too high It doesn't allow pets Percent Millennials Gen-X Boomers + n: 1721 What do you dislike about your current residence? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Affordability, neighborhood, and size reign supreme
25% 18% 5% 10% 8% 12% 9% 7% 2% 4% Other It wasn't my choice Amenities (pool, gym, bbq) It's located in a good school district It's near family The building is quiet It's near work Good size I like the neighborhood The price is affordable 0% 20% Percent n: 1721 Why did you select the place you currently rent? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Other Facts? Pets Matter!
California Renter Demographics

Half of renters have pets, and consider their pets family
52% 48% 0% 20% 40% Yes No Percent n: 1714 Do you have any pets? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

65% thought it was harder to find place that allows pets
35% 0% 20% 40% 60% Yes No Percent n: 926 Was it harder to find a home that accepted pets? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

This tends to be a big deal for Millennials
70% 63% 58% 0% 20% 40% 60% Millennials Gen-X Boomers + Percent n: 926 Was it harder to find a home that accepted pets? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Especially if they live in a city or urban area
77% 78% 62% 67% 58% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Downtown in a City City outside Suburb Rural Area Other Percent Millennials n: 483 Was it harder to find a home that accepted pets? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Fido also hits Millennials harder in the pocketbook
59% 54% 40% 0% 20% 60% Millennials Gen-X Boomers + Percent Answering More Expensive n: 927 Was it more expensive to find a home that accepted pets? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Might not need to buy for a hubby/kids, but the pet situation could be a good motivator for Millennials to purchase…

Ultimately, it’s ALL about affordability

25% moved to find a cheaper place
19% 13% 10% 9% 7% 6% 0% 5% 15% 20% To save money / cheaper place to live Larger or better quality home Better quality neighborhood Relocated to a new city Change in family status Rent Increase Better access to transportation/ commute Percent Select all that apply. n: 1721 Why did you move to your current home CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Especially true for Millennials – Boomers face life changes
17% 20% 9% 14% 11% 8% 7% 6% 0% 5% 10% 15% To save money / cheaper place to live Larger or better quality home Better quality neighborhood Change in family status Percent Millennials Gen-X Boomers + Select all that apply. n: 1721 Why did you move to your current home CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Some are even being driven out by housing costs
24% 16% 19% 18% 7% 17% 6% 11% 9% 10% 3% 5% 4% 1% 2% 0% 20% Cost of living Housing prices are too high Other Move closer to family College / School Taxes Neighborhood crime / danger Dest. Economy is stronger Commute too long School system for children Applied and got job out of state Employer driven relocation Retirement Percent CA Not-CA Rate 4+ Move; n: 355 Why are you planning moving out of your current city / county? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

20% don’t even pay for their own cell phones
79% 80% 0% 20% 40% 60% Millennials Gen-X Boomers + Answering Cell Phone Percent n: 1713 Do you pay for your own cell phone plan? It's ok. Be honest. CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Only Gen-Xers hopeful of getting house before paying cell
61% 48% 62% 0% 20% 40% 60% Millennials Gen-X Boomers + Answering Cell Phone Percent (Of those who don't pay themselves) : n: 360 What do you think comes first, getting your own cell plan or purchasing a home in California? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Big obstacles to homeownership

30%: affordability/downpayment; 8% mortgage qualification
29% 7% 6% 11% 5% 3% 4% 2% 12% 1% Cannot find the property I want Past foreclosure Other Don't have a down payment Don't have a job Housing market will decline No interest in buying Too costly to maintain Don't want the responsibility Flexibility/freedom Not ready to buy Can't purchase where I want It's easier to rent Can't qualify for mortgage Can't afford to buy 0% 10% 20% 30% Percent n: 1681 What is the top reason you selected? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Affordability an even bigger issue for non-whites
21% 32% 26% 27% 24% 15% 6% 4% 5% 0% 10% 20% 30% Lower prices Starting a family Better credit Improvement in finances Savings for down payment Nothing Something else Percent Non-Latino Latino Gen-X Respondents; n: 445 What would most motivate you to buy a home now? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Strong perceptions that affordability is getting worse
20% 30% 36% 11% 2% 0% 10% 40% Much worse Somewhat worse About the same Somewhat better Much better Percent n: 1677 In the past year has housing affordability in your area gotten... ? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Saving is hard when rents are so high!
California Average Asking Rent SERIES: California asking rent and household income SOURCE: California Department of Housing and Community Development, Census Bureau Decennial Census, American Community Survey

Downpayments an obstacle, but perceptions are too
4% 6% 3% 5% 24% 21% 17% 41% 34% 28% 49% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0-5% 6-10% 11-20% 20-30% 30-100% Percent Millennials Gen-X Boomers + n: 1681 How much downpayment is required to purchase a home? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Despite all this, 1/3 renters plan to buy when they move
57% 33% 5% 6% 0% 20% 40% 60% I plan to rent I plan to buy a home I plan to move in with a relative I have other plans Percent n: 1716 Do you plan to rent again after you move from your current residence? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

But not right away… 32% say within 3 years
11% 33% 9% 24% 8% 15% 0% 10% 20% 30% Within 12 months 1 to 3 years 4 to 5 years 5+ years Don't know/ Not Sure Never Percent n: 1716 When do you plan to purchase your next house? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

But buying outlook is getting worse from last year!
8% 10% 24% 32% 26% 16% 33% 22% 9% 19% 0% 20% 30% Within 12 months 1 to 3 years After 4 years Don't know / Not Sure Never Percent 2016 2017 n(2017): n(2016): 1989 When do you plan to purchase your next house? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Younger folks more bullish, Boomers downtrodden
5% 8% 9% 13% 27% 26% 4% 21% 6% 7% 16% 46% 37% 24% 3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Within 12 months 1 to 3 years 4 to 5 years 5+ years Don't know / Not Sure Never Percent Millennials Gen-X Boomers + n: 1716 When do you plan to purchase your next house? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Smaller sense of urgency than last year
8% 10% 24% 32% 26% 16% 33% 22% 9% 19% 0% 20% 30% Within 12 months 1 to 3 years 4+ years Don't know / Not Sure Never Percent 2016 2017 n(2017): n(2016): 1989 When do you plan to purchase your next house? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Millennials, particularly, shift purchase timeline
9% 10% 26% 37% 22% 24% 23% 3% 7% 0% 20% 30% 40% Within 12 months 1 to 3 years After 4 years Don't know / Not Sure Never Percent 2016 2017 Millennials: n(2017): n(2016): 1145 When do you plan to purchase your next house? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Gen-Xers previously said 'never' are now 'unsure'
8% 12% 27% 32% 20% 15% 37% 23% 7% 18% 0% 10% 30% Within 12 months Within 1 to 3 years 4 years Don't know / Not Sure Never Percent 2016 2017 Gen-X: n(2017): n(2016): 559 When do you plan to purchase your next house? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

22% of Renters were previous owners, most were Boomers
11% 22% 45% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Millennials Gen-X Boomers + Percent n: 1716 Have you ever owned a primary residence? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Previous owners still aren’t ready – but why not?
12% 6% 33% 32% 9% 11% 23% 26% 7% 13% 16% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Within 12 months 1 to 3 years 4 to 5 years 5+ years Don't know / Not Sure Never Percent Previous Owners Never Owned n: 1716 When do you plan to purchase your next house? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Previous owners hit by financial crisis
5% 9% 20% 25% 10% 0% Needed to move for family reasons for work Foreclosure / Short sale Other To collect the profit Couldn't afford the mortgage Bankruptcy Percent n: 303 Why did you sell your previous primary residence? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Boomers: Foreclosures; Millennials: Bankruptcy/affordability
30% 23% 19% 14% 35% 25% 7% 8% 13% 11% 4% 9% 2% 0% 10% 20% Needed to move for family reasons for work Foreclosure / Short sale To collect the profit Other Couldn't afford the mortgage Bankruptcy Percent Millennials Gen-X Boomers + n: 303 Why did you sell your previous primary residence? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Improved affordability/life change would motivate, but…
23% 10% 11% 25% 21% 6% 4% 0% 20% Lower prices Starting a family Better credit Improvement in finances Savings for down payment Nothing Something else Percent n: 1555 What would most motivate you to buy a home now? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Prospects for Converting Renters to Owners?
It's still aspirational! But...

The good news: homeownership still aspirational
8% 13% 29% 27% 23% 0% 10% 20% 30% Not at all Slightly Moderately Very Extremely Percent n: 1663 How important is homeownership to you? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

But less so as affordability and supply dwindles…
8% 7% 13% 4% 29% 25% 27% 30% 23% 34% 0% 10% 20% Not at all Slightly Moderately Very Extremely Percent 2016 2017 n(2017): n(2016): 1998 How important is homeownership to you? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA

Generational shifts: Gen-X strong, Boomer have soured
20% 7% 5% 19% 12% 23% 29% 32% 26% 30% 18% 21% 0% 10% Not at all Slightly Moderately Very Extremely Percent Millennials Gen-X Boomers + n: 1663 How important is homeownership to you? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

For Gen-X, ownership a pragmatic choice vs. a 'dream'
1% 5% 2% 34% 22% 26% 41% 35% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Not at all Slightly Moderately Very Extremely Percent Millennials Gen-X Of those planning to purchase next; n: 346 How important is homeownership to you? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Most renters CAN be spurred into purchasing
81% 19% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Yes No Percent n: 1721 Would anything spur you to purchase? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

At least for younger renters, but 45% of boomers are out
11% 16% 43% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Millennials Gen-X Boomers + Response Percent Pct Answering No; n: 330 Would anything spur you to purchase? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

It comes down to jobs, and family change
34% 9% 14% 11% 6% 4% Move out of my parents' place Other Finishing current lease Finishing school Change in family status Starting a family Getting Married New Job / Raise / Promotion 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Percent n: 1391 Would any of the following life events spur you to buy CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Finishing school, starting a family for Millennials & Gen-X, Marriage for everyone, Boomers - Winning the lottery 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% New Job / Raise / Promotion Finishing school Getting Married Starting a family Change in family status Finishing current lease Other Move out of my parents' place Percent Millennials Gen-X Boomers + n: 1391 Would any of the following life events spur you to buy CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

REALTORS can be Agents of Change
And Education is Key

Most renters would buy if they could put little down
69% 31% 0% 20% 40% 60% Yes No Percent n: 1716 If you could qualify for a mortgage with a much lower down-payment would you buy? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

But they vastly over estimate required downpayment
4% 19% 33% 40% 0% 10% 20% 30% 0-5% 6-10% 11-20% 20-30% 30-100% Percent n: 1681 How much downpayment is required to purchase a home? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

And Millennials are particularly bad at it
4% 6% 3% 5% 24% 21% 17% 41% 34% 28% 49% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0-5% 6-10% 11-20% 20-30% 30-100% Percent Millennials Gen-X Boomers + n: 1681 How much downpayment is required to purchase a home? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

And only 30% know of FHA loans: big opportunity!
28% 72% 0% 20% 40% 60% Yes No Percent n: 1716 Are you aware of (FHA) backed loans that require only a 3.5% downpayment CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Who is actually getting ready to buy?
(They Exist!)

Preparations signs to buy
9% 5% 4% 16% 12% 14% 7% 6% 23% 2% 0% 10% 15% 20% 25% Checked your credit Searched for homes on your own No, I have not made preparations to buy a home Researched home buying process Spoken to a REALTOR(R) Attended an open house or toured homes for sale Talked to a bank or lender about a mortgage Consulted a credit counselor or financial adviser Been pre-qualified /pre-approved for mortgage Submitted an offer to purchase a home Percent n: 1721 Have you made any of the following preparations to buy a home? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Preparations signs for those saying they will buy within a year
12% 9% 6% 18% 13% 5% 7% 19% 2% 0% 10% 15% 20% Checked your credit Searched for homes on your own Researched home buying process Spoken to a REALTOR(R) Consulted a credit counselor or financial adviser Attended an open house or toured homes for sale Talked to a bank or lender about a mortgage Been pre-qualified /pre-approved for mortgage No, I have not made preparations to buy a home Submitted an offer to purchase a home Percent Purchase within 1 year n: 134 Have you made any of the following preparations to buy a home? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

But, more serious searchers…
Renters Home Prep Big Factors Checking credit / searching for homes But, more serious searchers… Don't think credit check is important part of process Those who think they are purchasing within a year 12% have spoken to a realtor Biggest difference between serious purchasers: 2x consulted a counselor 10% of within 1 year vs 5% not 7% went to an open house.

Think outside the box. . . Your clients will be

Millennials want to purchase but don't have the DP, #1 thing...

Family Money is Important (and Necessary) in CA
18% 4% 78% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Yes, offered to help with downpayment with mortgage payments No / Not Applicable Percent n: 1721 Have your parents or other family offered to help with a home purchase? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

And is even important for people in their 40s even.
5% 15% 26% 3% 6% 92% 82% 68% 0% 25% 50% 75% Yes, offered to help with downpayment with mortgage payments No / Not Applicable Percent Millennials Gen-X Boomers + n: 1721 Have your parents or other family offered to help with a home purchase? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

What Else is Happening in the Market

12% are looking to buy together, 25% -maybe
63% 25% 0% 20% 40% 60% Yes No Unsure Percent n: 1716 Do you plan to pool your funds together to buy a home with other friends or family? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Most with 1 additional family
16% 60% 18% 5% 0% 20% 40% 1 2 3 4 Percent n: 218 With How Many Households? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Other Options : Encouraging ADUs for Owners
What do Renters want

Good interest in ADUs in general
33% 27% 41% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Not or Slightly Interested Moderately Very Percent n: 1711 Would you be amenable to rent an ADU compared to a more traditional rental? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Appears to be a healthy demand for ADU rentals too
25% 35% 33% 26% 41% 39% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Not or Slightly Interested Moderately Very Percent Millennials Gen-X Boomers + n: 1711 Would you be amenable to rent an ADU compared to a more traditional rental? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Will take some adjusting too, but…
17% 13% 11% 19% 2% 1% 14% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Affordability/Price Privacy Size Location Parking Quality of construction / appliances Separation from main unit No difference Other? Percent n: 1711 What factors would you want to be assured of before renting an ADU? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Boomers want them cheap, Millennials want privacy
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Affordability/Price Privacy Size Location Parking Quality of construction / appliances Separation from main unit No difference Other? Percent Millennials Gen-X Boomers + n: 1721 What factors would you want to be assured of before renting an ADU? CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Conclusions

Conclusions Lots more renters today Across all demographics
This all comes down to affordability For many, simply too many headwinds That’s going to impact volume of transactions For these, all we can do is address the supply crisis Lots of room for REALTORS® to be Agents of change Most people still want to buy a home Lots of unconventional approaches to ownership Mom/dad, pooling funds, multi-generational, ADUs Educate on finance, benefits of ownership, downpmts.

First Time Buyers – your next customers for life
First Time Buyers – your next customers for life! Earn the First Time Buyer Specialist (FTBS) Certification from C.A.R. Education First Time Buyers Specialist 1 – Master the Market How to Communicate with New buyers Create Lasting Relationships First Time Buyers Specialist 2 – Be the Go-to Agent Educate on Buying Process Financing Programs Did you know that first time buyers represent about 1/3 of the market? It is worth your time and effort to expand your business into this growing market. Learn how to increase your income and create relationships that deliver lasting rewards when you earn the First Time Buyer (FTBS) Certification. It requires completing these two courses: First Time Buyer Specialist 1 – Master the Market 4-hour course that teaches you about the market, who the clients are and how to win their business. First Time Buyer Specialist 2 – Be the Go-to Agent 4-hour course that provides detailed information about mortgage programs and directions on running “First Time Buyer Workshops” and maximizing results. GREAT News – take these courses on our newest interactive online platform – available to you at any time! Ready to begin earning your FTBS? Visit car.org/education/designations/FTBSCertification Courses are now online in our NEW interactive format - available for you 24/7! car.org/education/designations/FTBSCertification

The all-new Housing Matters Podcast is your housing hub for market analysis, economic trends, and housing news from the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®® (C.A.R.) and its institute the Center for California Real Estate. Be sure to subscribe on iTunes to hear the latest episode every other Friday to learn what you need to know about the market from C.A.R. experts who will give you their take on the week’s top real estate stories.

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