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Bipolarity Deterrence Arms Control Rationality Multipolarity

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Presentation on theme: "Bipolarity Deterrence Arms Control Rationality Multipolarity"— Presentation transcript:

1 Bipolarity Deterrence Arms Control Rationality Multipolarity
First Nuclear Age, s Second Nuclear Age, 1990s to present Bipolarity balance Deterrence vulnerability Arms Control Managing rivalry Rationality Multipolarity asymmetry Deterrence missile defense Arms Control coercion Rationality

2 Second Nuclear Age, 1990s to present
Multipolarity asymmetry Deterrence missile defense Arms Control coercion Rationality

3 1. Multipolarity More players in the game
Several levels of relationships Almost all are asymmetric Strategic Level Regional Level Terrorism?

4 Estimated Nuclear Forces, 2016
(from Center for Security Studies, ETH Zurich)

5 A. Strategic level US and Russia: rough equality
Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT) 2002 New START Treaty 2010

6 China Chinese nuclear capability Chinese nuclear doctrine
US Annual Report on Chinese Military Power

7 Table 1. Chinese nuclear forces, 2013.
Hans M. Kristensen, and Robert S. Norris Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 2013;69:79-85 Copyright © by Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

8 Chinese MRBM and ICBM Ranges from US Report on Chinese Military Power, p. 82

9 B. Regional Level South Asia Middle East East Asia

10 South Asia

11 India Missile Ranges

12 Pakistani Missile Ranges

13 East Asia North Korea: Nuclear tests October 9, 2006 (first test)

14 Missile Ranges

15 THAAD to be Deployed in South Korea

16 THAAD

17 The Middle East Iran: No tests yet, but
2007 US National Intelligence Estimate 2013 IAEA Report 2015 JCPOA

18

19 C. Terrorism? AQAM US Invasion of Iraq 2003 Coup in Pakistan
Iranian allies: Hezbollah?

20 2. Deterrence Three Modifications to Cold War Deterrence
Dealing with the regional threat Missile Defense Prompt Global Strike Use of Nuclear Weapons against Non-Nuclear States

21 A. Missile Defense Strategic Defense Initiative:
Reagan’s SDI speech, March 23, 1983

22 NMD: Deterrence by Denial
National Missile Defense Act of 1999 US Missile Defense Agency The missile defense system NMD test videos BMD Review 2010

23 GW Bush and Obama

24 B. Prompt Global Strike GW Bush Nuclear Posture Review 2001 Summary
Obama Nuclear Posture Review 2010 US Strategic Command: JFCC Global Strike Amy F. Woolf, “Conventional Prompt Global Strike and Long-Range Ballistic Missiles: Background and Issues.” Congressional Research Service. April 26, 2013

25 Why Conventional PGS? Speed Vulnerability of forward bases Preemption
Option to stay below nuclear threshold

26 C. Use of Nuclear Weapons against Non-Nuclear States

27 3. Arms Control Strategic Arms Control: US and Russia
Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT) 2002 New START Treaty 2010 US and China: nothing

28 Regional Powers? Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty 1968 (1970)
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

29 Problems? Never Signed NPT Israel India Pakistan
Violated Treaty Provisions Iraq Iran North Korea

30 Coercion, Sanctions, Talks
North Korea Six Party Talks UNSC Resolution 1718 (2006) Iran P5 + 1 Talks UNSC Resolution 1929 (2010) 2015 JCPOA

31 Missile Technology Control Regime

32 4. Rationality If leaders of these states are rational…
Extortion is their policy If leaders of these states are irrational… How do we deal with them?

33 Larger Question Does Deterrence Work? GW Bush answer

34 Terrorists Rationality?
Hamas or AQAM? Rationality of groups that use suicide bombing?

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