1. Risk and Environment
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Paul Hayden MA, MSc, MIFireE Chief Officer / Chief Executive
Hereford & Worcester Fire and Rescue Service

2. Climate Change: Risk Impact

3. 3
Practical Impacts
“The atmosphere isn’t warming, and if it is, then its down to natural variations; and even if its not down to natural variations, then the amount of warming is insignificant; and if it becomes significant, then the benefits will outweigh the problems, and even if they don’t, technology will come to the rescue; and even if it doesn't, we shouldn’t risk wrecking the economy because some of the science is uncertain!”

5. Definitions of key terms5
Definitions of key terms
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE [IPCC]
Climate change in IPCC usage refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity.
Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences.
Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes.

6. New critical threshold
Climate sensitivity, vulnerability and adaptation
Present
Past
Time
Climate variable
Decision
to adapt
Vulnerability
New coping range
New critical threshold
Implementation
of adaptation
Critical threshold
Coping range
Future
Lag
Planning time horizon
Slide courtesy of UKCIP

7. What is Climate Change Adaptation?
measures to moderate and cope with climate change impacts
not a one-off activity, but a continuous and incremental set of activities.
Adaptation
Physical actions e.g:
raising the height of sea defences
Increasing ventilation / cooling in buildings
Building ‘Adaptive Capacity’ e.g:
Raising awareness of impacts
Tools / context etc for decision makers

8. Why do we need Adaptation?
Climate change is already happening
Stopping GHGs today will not prevent it
CC over next yrs due to historic emissions
Adaptation

9. We need to: Adaptation Build ‘adaptive capacity’
Identify priorities for adaptation
Identify actions that will improve the resilience of:
Adaptation
Development,
Services,
Infrastructure,
Communities,
The Economy,
the ‘Natural’ environment

10. 10
FRS Practical Impacts
FRS must act to reduce the impact of its activities on the
Environment.
However, regardless of any action we take, our organisations
and services will be impacted by climate change in at least 5
key areas over the next 50 years;
High Summer Temperatures
Floods
Drought
Storms
Social Impact - Migration

11. High Summer Temperatures

13. Drought

14. Storm

17. Flood

20. Migration

21. 21
CFOA Partnerships
FRS / EA Strategic Partnership -Strategic Group, Tactical
Group, Environmental Protection, flooding & PPS 25
CFOA Inland Water Strategic & Tactical Group
UK SAR Strategic Group & Tactical Group
Defra Flood Rescue Capabilities Program
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council
Extreme Weather Events, SME’s / Householder adaptation
Various University Research Projects
EU Flood Command
EU Flood Ex 2009
US FEMA & DHS Major Flood Programs
If you are Interested in any of the above, please get in
touch!