1. Climate Change Impacts on Small Water Utilities
Coastal Water Supply Association
Annual Conference – April 7, 2017 Colwyn Sunderland and Craig Sutherland, KWL

2. Overview – Climate Change Impacts Small Community Water Supply
Tools to manage supply
Tools to manage demand
Economic impacts
Planning for climate resiliency

3. Coastal Water Supply Systems
Coastal Climate
Wet cool winters
Warm Dry Summers
Community Water Supply
Plenty of water available in fall/winter
Out of phase with high demand in summer
Storage (Snow, Soil, Ground Water and Surface Reservoirs)

4. Projected Climate Change Vancouver Island
Climate Variable
Season
Projected Change from Baseline
Ensemble Median
Range (10th to 90th percentile)
Mean Temperature (°C)
Annual
+1.5 °C
+0.9 °C to +2.3 °C
Precipitation (%)
Annual Summer Winter
+6% -14% +6%
-1% to +10% -23% to +1% -3% to +13%
Snowfall* (%)
Winter Spring
-30% -50%
-47% to -11% -71% to -14%
Growing Degree Days* (degree days)
+337 degree days
+207 to +521 degree days
Heating Degree Days* (degree days)
-530 degree days
-810 to -330 degree days
Frost-Free Days* (days)
+21 days
+12 to +32 days
NSSWD Only licence holder for lake. “Controled” watershed as most is within park and nature reserve with some private land.
Source: PCIC Plan to Adapt Tool

5. Mountain/Snow Melt Water Supply
Increased temperatures
Increased year to year variability
Less snow and more rain in winter
Less snowpack (storage)
Change in Avg. April 1st. Snow level for North shore Mountains, Vancouver for business as usual GHG emissions.
Existing Elevation: 695 m
Future Year 2100 Elevation: 1040 m
Source: Cohen et al. 2011
NSSWD Only licence holder for lake. “Controled” watershed as most is within park and nature reserve with some private land.

6. Hydrologic Change Future Storage Period Current Storage Period
Source: PCIC, 2011
Change in avg. summer inflow
= -43% to – 68%

7. Lower Elevation/Rainfall Supply
More rain in winter on average (sufficient storage to capture it?)
Longer and drier summers
Increased Temp = Increased Evaporation
Year over Year drought
Change in avg. summer inflow
= +6% to – 25%

8. Groundwater Site Specific but:
Typically sufficient recharge to replenish ground water storage
Land use change can impact recharge and quality
Increased demand can put
GW at risk
NSSWD Only licence holder for lake. “Controled” watershed as most is within park and nature reserve with some private land.
Nanoose River’s Edge Road GW Levels

9. Other Impacts? Water Quality
- increased turbidity during extreme rainfall events
- increased water temperature
2. Land Use Change
- change in runoff from watersheds
- change in recharge to ground water
NSSWD Only licence holder for lake. “Controled” watershed as most is within park and nature reserve with some private land.

10. Adaptation Planning Steps Description
1. Understand Impacts and Challenges
- Identify adaptation planning horizon
Understand supply
(Hydrological analysis, hydrological modelling)
- Understand demand ( water demand forecasting, climate impacts, )
2. Identify thresholds of failure or damage
What conditions would cause failure?
What would be the impact of failures?
How will climate change impact these conditions?
3. Assess risks
For each combination of failure condition and impact
Consider likelihood of failure - Consider consequence of failure
Combine together to identify risk
4. Determine Adaptation Options
For each risk identify adaptation options
Conduct cost/benefit for each option
Select adaptation options to address each identified risk
5. Implement and Monitor
Implement plan
Monitor effectiveness through data collections
NSSWD Only licence holder for lake. “Controled” watershed as most is within park and nature reserve with some private land.

11. Adaptation Planning
NSSWD Only licence holder for lake. “Controled” watershed as most is within park and nature reserve with some private land.

12. Adaptation Options Legislative Tools
- Water Sustainability Act - Water Sustainability Plans (both water allocation AND land use impacts – increased resiliency)
- Ground Water Licensing
Management Tools
Surface Water Reservoir Management (improved reservoir operation)
Demand management, drought management
Measure, measure, measure
3. Structural improvements
- Increase surface storage (raise dams, flashboards/spillway gates, syphons, and pumping)
Aquifer storage and recovery
Improve water delivery efficiency (leaks, hydraulic constraints, etc.)
NSSWD Only licence holder for lake. “Controled” watershed as most is within park and nature reserve with some private land.

13. Management Tools
NSSWD Only licence holder for lake. “Controlled” watershed as most is within park and nature reserve with some private land.

14. Economic Impacts More frequent drought response restrictions
increased costs
reduced revenues
reduced service levels
New or expanded water sources
Major project costs
Reduced capacity to cover other capital needs
Increased life cycle costs
Increased summer peak demands
Distribution system upgrades
Diminishing source water quality
Treatment upgrades

15. Planning for Climate Resiliency
Five key questions:
How big is your future supply/demand gap?
How much of it can be managed with a drought management plan?
How much can be addressed with pricing structures?
How much can be addressed by a conservation program?
How much is left to be addressed with a new source of supply? $ $?
$$$
$$$$$$!

16. Planning for Climate Resiliency
How big is your future supply/demand gap?
Greater Victoria municipalities can redirect resources to other needs…
Some small utilities already cope with extremely limited supply in an average year
Impacts of growth and aging infrastructure?
Impacts of plumbing code changes?
Conduct a robust demand forecast

17. Planning for Climate Resiliency
Drought response plan
Low cost…as long as it’s infrequent
Effective…as long as it’s infrequent
Financial impacts: Plan ahead with reserve funds?
Combine with other strategies to make sure it remains infrequent
Stage 2 begins
Metro Vancouver 2015 daily water demands
Stage 3 begins
Metro Vancouver 2015 water demands (BL/d)

18. Planning for Climate Resiliency
What can pricing do for you?
Unmetered utilities – limited options
Metering with effective rate structure may achieve savings of 15% or more
Water budget / inclining block rates
Fixed charge and/or lower tier rate covers basic utility costs
Upper tier rate (for usage above basic household need) covers conservation program and/or supply expansion reserve fund
Keys are getting the threshold and upper tier rate right, and communicating effectively

19. Planning for Climate Resiliency
Water conservation that works
How much potential is there for savings?
Where are the savings?
How can the savings be achieved?
Residential indoor – toilets, laundry, showerheads
ICI indoor – fixtures, once-through cooling, food services, leaks
Outdoor – landscape bylaws, social marketing
Distribution system – loss management
Prepare a fully costed conservation plan

20. Planning for Climate Resiliency
Source expansion…if you must
New sources are much more expensive than what you have now
Cost out the best scenarios, at least as a communication tool
If growth is a factor:
Develop a 20-year master plan that identifies projects and costs
Establish a DCC/Capital Expenditure Charge program

21. Get Resilient! Check this stuff out!
How might climate change impact me?
How big is my future supply/demand gap? demand-forecasts/
How should I plan for shortages when I can’t avoid them? water/water/drought-flooding-dikes-dams/drought-information
How can I set rates that encourage conservation?
What is the potential for water conservation in my community?
How can I recover costs associated with growth? _Guide_2005.pdf

22. Questions? This uplifting message was painted on a building in Hawaii
Image: Vancitybuzz.com