1. The Middle East from 9-11 to the Arab ‘Spring’

2. The Hamburg Cell Khalid Sheikh Mohammed Architect of 9-11 plan 1996
Formed 1998 by University Students in Hamburg Germany
Mohamed Atta, Marwan al-Shehhi Ramzi bin al-Shibh
Chance meeting with al Qaeda agent
Training in Afghanistan, chosen for 9-11 mission
Enroll in flight training schools in US
The 20th hijacker

3. September 11, 2001 2996 Deaths 10 Billion infrastructure damage
Wars in Afghanistan and Iraq
2001 Letter to America
support of Israel, attacks in Somalia, atrocities in Chechnya, authoritarian regimes in the Middle East, oppression in Kashmir
The presence of U.S. troops in Saudi Arabia
sanctions against Iraq

5. War on Terror
Patriot Act, Homeland Security; Challenges to right to privacy
Becomes a Carte blanche policy for targeting ‘terrorists’
Used as a tool of political repression by US allies

6. Axis of Evil G. W. Bush 2002 State of the Union Address
North Korea "A regime arming with missiles and weapons of mass destruction, while starving its citizens.“
Iran "aggressively pursues these weapons and exports terror, while an unelected few repress the Iranian people's hope for freedom.“
Iraq "continues to flaunt its hostility toward America and to support terror.

7. Weapons Inspection Saga
1991 (UN 697) requires Iraq to eliminate WMDs, Inspections begin
Further resolution 669,707,715,949,1149,1289,1441
Iraq is often not cooperative banning inspectors from certain sites
Weapons inspections repeatedly suspended then resume
Some weapons and weapons material found
February 2002, Colin Powell speech to UNSC with evidence he argues that Iraq has misled inspectors
Zeyzoun Dam disaster, Syria

8. Justifications for War
Weapons of mass destruction
Connections with al Qaeda
Post 9/11 political environment
Marketing the War
3000 protests world wide, 36 million people
3 million in Rome, largest ever anti war protest
Opposed by US allies Germany, France, NZ

9. Coalition of the Willing
UN a paper tiger?
48 Countries
Troops: US, UK, Poland, Australia
Italy, Spain, Denmark strategic and air support
Kurdish Peshmerga
Turkey refused coalition access to its air space

10. Invasion Coalition Iraq US (148,000) UK (45,000) 500,000 Troops
Australia (2,000) Poland (194) Peshmerga (70,000)
M1A1 Abrams Tanks
F-117 Stealth bombers
AWACS Guidance Systems
500,000 Troops
650,000 reserves
Soviet T-72 Tanks
Aircraft disassembled and buried

11. Baghdad Bob
“There are no American’s in Baghdad”

12. April Fall of Baghdad
May 1 Bush declares combat operations over
July 22: Uday and Qusay Hussein killed
September 3: First post-Saddam government
13 December Capture of Saddam Hussein
poll shows majority of Iraqis expect better life in 5 years. 2/3 of Baghdad residents state the dictator's removal was worth the hardships
October/ November large scale insurgency

13. Trial Convicted of the Dujail Masacre 1982
Anfal Campaign, Iran–Iraq War, invasion of Kuwait; war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide
Judge “State your name.”
Saddam "You are an Iraqi, you know who I am.“
Trial criticised by rights groups as a ‘Kangaroo Court”
Executed 30 December 2006

14. Outcomes
Disbanding of internal security forces and the Ba’the party leave country vulnerable
Shi’ite dominated government of Nouri al Maliki fails to diminish sectarian tensions
Rise of al Qaeda in Iraq
Increase in Iranian influence
US withdrawal 2011

15. Capture of Osama bin Laden
2 May 2011 Abbotabad Pakistan
1.3 Kilometers from Pakistan Military Academy
Abu Ahmed al-Kuwaiti
US forces violate Pakistani Soverighty
Effects on the al Qaeda movement?
Demonstrates the limited influence of the central leadership
Successor al Zawahiri fails to direct the movement
Paves the way for ISIS popularity

16. Arab Spring

17. Began January 2011 in Tunisia Mohamed Bouazizi
Corruption rankings (Transparency International)
Tunisia 73: Morocco 80; Algeria and Egypt 112 (tied); Yemen 164; Libya 168;
Age distribution
Egypt 33% younger than 14 years, Syria 35 % compare US 20%; Germany 13%)
Lack of democratic input (Long standing regimes)

18. Outcomes
Tunisia: President Ben Ali overthrown, new constitution, government elected
Egypt: Mubarak ousted, Morsey elected and overthrown.
al Sisi elected
Libya: Gaddafi killed, Two rival governments claim power, continuing conflict
Yemen: Abdullah Saleh ousted, continued civil violence
Protest put down in Gulf States
Syria: Protracted Civil War. al-Assad remains
Potential destabilisation of Lebanon

19. Removal of power structures unleashes tensions: Sunni/ Shi’ite, Islamist/ Secularist, Political Class conflict
Patterns of authoritarianism
Proxy effects of the MECW
Great power stalemate
Absence of national state identity

20. Is the news all bad? Some movement towards pluralism
Egyptian constitution allows greater freedoms for some religious minorities
Tunisia writes new constitution
Algeria ends state of emergency
Oman, greater autonomy for legislature
Jordan, Morocco, constitutional reforms
In 2015 women will gain the right to vote and seek public office in Saudi Arabia