1. Zanzibar Education Situation Analysis 2016
MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND VOCATIONAL TRAINING
Zanzibar Education Situation Analysis 2016
Closely working with MoEVT counterparts: Dr Massoud Salim and Mshauri Khamis

2. What is the current situation of the education sector in Zanzibar?
Approach
small team of international consultants and staff from DPPR
wider engagement of MoEVT staff and targeted capacity development
Methods
GPE ESA guidelines
Secondary data from research studies, national surveys, data from MoEVT institutions
Key informant interviews [> 90 interviewees]
What is the current situation of the education sector in Zanzibar?
What are the key issues to consider for the next five-year sector plan?

3. National context shaping education (Chp1)
Social indicators
Population growth of 2.8% per annum
More than 40% of the population are <15 years old
Between 12-44% live in poverty
Economic indicators
Strong economic growth over past decade (4-9% per year)
Continued dependence on agriculture, tourism and trade
Expected government revenue collection has fallen from 42% to 33% of GDP
Social indicators: (i) population set to double by 2040 (ii) the 44% poverty figure is from the 2009/10 household budget survey
Economic indicators: briefly explain potential implications for education

4. Education system and trends in enrolment capacity (Chp2)
Trends in enrolment capacity in past six years:
Pre-primary : enrolment has doubled; capacity growing rapidly
Primary: enrolment growing with population; capacity stable at ~100%
Ordinary secondary: enrolment not keeping pace with population; capacity fallen slightly
Advanced secondary: enrolment falling; increasing trend for students to opt for college
TVET: very limited capacity in public VTAs
Tertiary: enrolment growing; capacity expanding rapidly
Access to ordinary secondary education falls by half over the four-year cycle (from 86% to 43%), mainly because many students fail the Form 2 selective examination. This means that considerably less than half of children have access to the final form of ordinary secondary.

5. Cost and financing overview(Chp 3)
MoEVT’s expenditure has been close to international norms over past six years
16-22% of national budget
% of GDP
Benchmarks for spending:
15-20% of national budget
4-6% of GDP
Development expenditure has actually fallen quite substantially in the last two years
The is a significant difference between commitments and what is executed
Spending against the original budget tends to be higher for government funds than for development partner funds, as seen by the execution rates. There are various reasons for low execution of development partner funds – delays and inaccurate planning and implementation, and delays in development partners' approvals procedures and fund release.

6. A closer look at the MoEVT budget: per student spend (Chp 4)
Ratio to pre-prim and prim
Pre- and Primary
129,372
1.0
Secondary
342,036
2.6
Adult/alternative
67,045
0.5
VTCs
1,703,097
13.2
KIST
3,099,141
24.0
SUZA
2,388,106
18.5
Based on the total estimated expenditure at the subsector level and enrolment, unit costs of spending per student per year have been calculated.
Unit costs (per student spending) is highest for TVET and KIST
Norms for average teacher salary to GDP per capita are 3.5: 1 (EFA, GMR)
Average teacher salaries are estimated to be about 2.2 times GDP per capita

7. Student learning: results (Chp 5)
Learning achievement is low at primary and ordinary secondary level
more than 20% of students entering secondary education have failed the Standard 6 examination
performance in mathematics is particularly poor
Fewer than 60% of Form 2 students pass the examination and continue to Form 3, this is inconsistent with the compulsory education policy
Note as many as 7% don’t take the Form 2 exam at all

8. Student learning: assessment system (Chp 5)
What skills and knowledge are the examinations measuring?
The assessment system itself is problematic
volatility in examination pass rates by division and over time
low correlation between Form 2 and Form 4 results
Perceptions from stakeholders that nature of test (type of question, language) is a barrier
The low correlation between F2 and F4 results comes from Massoud’s PHD research. He found unusually low correlation with students-level data

9. Teacher management (Chp 6)
Key successes:
sufficient number of teachers at every level
vast majority have a teaching qualification
Key challenges
quality issues: shortages of teachers qualified in pre-primary or maths/science, poor English skills
motivation and morale of teachers
processes for assessing teacher need and deployment are unclear
recruitment process lacks educational input
inefficient utilisation of teachers in schools
in-service via teacher centres show promise but are under-resourced
Assessing teacher need is opaque, needs more definition and deployment should be fair
Inefficient utilisation due to: classroom shortages and subject teaching

10. Classroom availability (Chp 6)
Classroom shortages are a major constraint at all levels => large class sizes, inefficient teacher utilisation, lower contact hours
Pre-primary: plans to expand provision substantially mean that about 140 new classrooms will be needed per year to 2020
Primary: acute shortage, average class size is 47, double-shifting used in 39% of schools; need about 60 new classrooms per year to 2020 to keep up with population growth alone
Secondary: double-cohort due to enter in 2016 will put enormous pressure on infrastructure; 150 new classrooms needed per year to 2020 to cope with this
If we want pre-primary GER to increase to 50%, we need to build 140 new pp classrooms each year

11. System capacity (Chp 7) Central, regional and district-level
Units, departments and autonomous agencies have clear functions and staff but lack operational resources
No revision of roles and responsibilities to meet the needs of the 2006 Education Policy
Decentralisation modalities involving REOs and DEOs not well understood
Local Authority Act could have a profound effect on responsibility for education delivery
School-level
Greater community involvement could get children enrolling at appropriate age
School heads could benefit from more support
The removal of voluntary contributions is laudable, however replacing it with central purchasing has risks
Note REO:DEO ratio is 2:1
We could not get job descriptions and some DEOs said they didn’t get any. “I do what they do”

12. Equity: inequality in learning (Chp 8)
Exclusion risk factors
Being a boy, living in a rural area, coming from a poor household or a household where the head is uneducated
Gender
Location
Disability
Household income
Girls outperform boys on the Form 2 exam
Boys outperform girls in passing the Form 4 exam & qualifying to continue
Large disparities across districts in exam pass rates, especially at Form 4

13. Students Access and provision Quality Emerging issues
Sub-sector analysis
Chapter 9: Early Childhood Development
Chapter 10: Tertiary
Chapter 11: Adult literary and alternative education
Chapter 12: Technical and vocational training
Students
Access and provision
Quality
Emerging issues

14. Issues and Questions
What will full enrolment in ECD involve
Why do children enter school late
What is best modality for teacher needs identification, recruitment and deployment
Are teachers in the classroom and what are they doing there
How many students choose to enter Colleges instead of entering Universities directly
Why are exam results so volatile
How will schools pay for utilities
What is likely cost to RGZ of student loans over time and how should degrees be targeted
Pace of expansion and teachers qualified in preprimary
Age appropriate entry to primary
Quality and retention in secondary
Classroom shortages
Quality of VTC and private provider provision of training
School autonomy and decentralization
Finance for schools, agency functioning and non-salary
The more regional and district staff there are the more the autonomy of schools is limited