1. Disasters, conflict, and peace
Disaster diplomacy:
Disasters, conflict, and peace
Ilan Kelman
University College London

2. Overview
How and why disaster-related activities do and do not induce cooperation amongst enemies.
Disaster-related activities can catalyze but not create diplomacy – over the short-term (weeks and months).

3. Definitions Disaster: An event beyond a community’s ability to cope.
Diplomacy: Peaceful business amongst sovereign governments and other government-related entities.

4. Case studies Geographic region. e.g. North Korea, Greece-Turkey.
Specific disaster event or type.
e.g. earthquake hazard, haze.
Global issue.
e.g. asteroid, climate change.

5. Case studies Spin-offs
Inter-state and intra-state.
e.g. Philippines, Aceh / Sri Lanka.
Spin-offs
Environmental diplomacy.
Disaster para-diplomacy.

6. Research questions Disaster-related activities  diplomacy.
New diplomacy.
Legitimate diplomacy.
Lasting diplomacy.
Is the long-term addressed?

7. Reasons why it fails Survival of oneself.
Inertial prejudice and enmity.
Lack of political forethought.
Ability for disaster-related activities.
Humanitarian imperative.

8. Disaster-related activities are not the first political priority.
Politics can be uncaring.

9. Disaster diplomacy and international agreements
Example: Antarctic Treaty System and climate change impacts on it.
Diplomatic outcomes beyond the agreement?
Climate change impacts on environmental agreements?

10. Non-sovereign island disaster diplomacy
Legal: neither allowed nor banned.
Actual: a few occurrences.
Why? Limited
interest in
sovereignty &
disaster risk.

11. Understanding reasons: Quantitative analyses
Data challenges.
Correlation and causation.

12. Understanding reasons: Explanatory & predictive models
Taxonomy:
-Neighbourliness.
-Aid relationship.
-Diplomacy track.
-Purpose for supporting/avoiding.

13. Beyond research to pragmatism
Politics is not just politicians
Diplomacy is not just diplomats.
Time: do start and end points exist?
Space: how much do specific boundaries matter?

14. Disaster diplomacy as a process, Not a one-off phenomenon
When wanted, it happens.
Can be a tool or a weapon.
Theory or desires may not be reality.
Accept the evidence of failure,
but do not lose hope.