1. Plagues: A Continuous Threat
57 million premature deaths per year
15 (26%) million deaths due to infectious and parasitic diseases per year
Every 3 seconds 1 death
1 Jumbo-Jet crash
every 20 min
H5N1
H7N7
Anthrax
Ebola
BSE
TB, HIV
Smallpox
SARS
FMD

2. Perceived and Real Killers
Lost
Anthrax
SARS
TB / HIV
Deaths
Anthrax attacks in the aftermath of 9/11: 5
China: 687
World: 774
(Date: 26/9/2003)
> 500/h
> / Day
> 4.5 million/ Year
Infections
Anthrax attacks in the aftermath of 9/11: 22
China: 7438
World: 8098
> / Day
SARS
TBC, HIV
Anthrax

5. The TB and HIV/AIDS epidemic: The example of South Africa
People living with HIV: 5 million
People living with active TB: 2.5 million
(total cases: 556/ )
Newly diagnosed TB: 1 million
(new cases: 226/ )
Percent TB cases with HIV: 60 %
Percent MDR-TB: 1.5 %
HIV co-infection increases risk of active TB >30-fold

6. Amount of money spent on pets in one of the larger EU member states: more than the amount needed to prevent half of the death cases caused by AIDS, TB, Malaria and basic childhood diseases in developing countries

7. The Big Three
At least 20 million children have lost one or both parents to AIDS or TB in the last 10 years.
Since 1945, 150 million estimated deaths occurred from AIDS, TB and Malaria

8. Plagues: A Continuous Threat
The global village
1.4 billion airplane passengers per annum
500 million border-crossings per annum
 Seclusion impossible

9. Plagues: A Continuous Threat
Microbes do not respect passport controls
Integration is better than exclusion

10. The 10/90 gap
Less than 10 % of global health research funding is targeted at health problems of greatest concern to people in developing countries which account for 90 % of the global disease burden
10 %
90 %
funding
burden

11. Making a difference: preventing 8 million deaths a year by 2010
… through an annual investment of $66 billion by the year 2007
At any one time hundreds of millions of people – mainly in developing countries – are sick….
Only a handful of diseases… are responsible for most of the world’s health deficits: HIV/AIDS; malaria; TB – diseases that kill mothers and their infants; tobacco-related; childhood diseases…
Most deaths and disabilities can be prevented …by taking essential interventions to scale and making them available worldwide, 8 million lives could be saved each year by 2010…
A scaled-up response will require…strong commitment by governments to specific actions for reducing health inequality and inequity together with broad support from the international community…
Investing in Health (Jeffrey Sachs et al.)

12. Call for an increase in research and development
$1.5 billion per year … for research and development of new vaccines and drugs
$1.5 billion per year … to support basic scientific research in health… and long-term research capacity in developing countries
Increased outlays for operational research
Expanded availability of scientific information
Expanded availability of scientific information on the internet
Modification of the orphan drug legislation
Pre-commitments to purchase … vaccines for HIV/AIDS, TB, and malaria as market-based incentive
Investing in Health (Jeffrey Sachs et al.)

13. Making a difference: preventing 8 million deaths a year by 2010
… through an annual investment of $66 billion by the year 2007
… and generating at least $360 billion annually by
303 million DALY’s worth around $180 billion in direct economic benefits…and another $180 billion from indirect economic benefits
Investing in Health (Jeffrey Sachs et al.)

14. Scientists have a contract with society

15. Plagues: A Continuous Threat
Just imagine:
If AIDS occurred 10 years earlier:
Premature call-off of small pox vaccination
Small pox problem unresolved
 We cannot afford to hesitate

16. The Yin and Yang of Vaccine Development

17. Plagues: A Continuous Threat
Incentives for vaccine industry:
Tax reduction for vaccine production
Secured future markets in developing countries
Tiered price system
Reduced interest rates or debt release by the World Bank for specific health issues

18. – but also for what we do not do”
“We are responsible for what we do
– but also for what we do not do”
Voltaire

19. The clock of infections
is ticking
we just do not know
what time it is