1. Simulating cropland sites in Europe preliminary results
Martin Wattenbach, Pete Smith

2. outline The cropland sites and the current status of work
The DNDC model
Prelimenary simulation results
Carlow Ireland
Grignon, France
Lonzee, Belgium - climate data example
Data requirements
Climate data
Crop data
Soil data
Next steps

3. The sites – status of work
Site short
Country
Site name
Site n°
name
MAIN SITES
Germany
Gebesee
Flux data for 2004, 2005, all years simulated, additional data required 3
DE-Geb
Germany
Klingenberg 8
Flux data for 2004, not simulated, essential soil data requested
DE-Kli
Flux data for simulated, additional data required
France
Grignon 12
FR-Gri
Flux data for 2004, not simulated, essential soil data requested.
Denmark
Risbyholm 42
DK-Ris
Spain
El Saler-Sueca 56
ES-Es2
Flux data for 2004, 2005, simulated, climate data requested
Flux data for 2004, 2005, all years simulated, more data required
Belgium
Lonzee 73
BE-Lon
Flux data for 2004, not simulated, essential climate, soil data requested UK
East Saltoun 76
UK-Esa
Flux data for 2004, 2005 all years simulated, first results
Ireland
Carlow 80
IE-Car1
Flux data for 2005, simulated, first results from MSc thesis by Dominique Dietiker
Switzerland
Oensingen
103
CH-Oen2

4. Ancillary sites – work status
Site short
Country
Site name
Site n°
name
ASSOCIATED SITES
Flux data for not simulated, essential data required
France
Lamasquère xx
FR-Lam
Flux data for not simulated, essential data required
France
Auradé xx
FR-Aur
Netherlands
Cabauw 67
NL-Cab1
Flux data for Molenweg ? not simulated, essential data required.
Flux data for 2004, 2005, not simulated, essential data required
Italy
Borgo Cioffi 26
It-Bci

5. The DNDC model
DeNitrification-DeComposition

6. Carlow – preliminary results

7. Preliminary results - Carlow

8. Preliminary results - Carlow

9. Preliminary results - Carlow
by Mike Williams

10. Carlow – preliminary results

11. Preliminary results - Carlow
What is Allegro Bravo ?
Epoxiconazole, Kresoxim-methyl
Chlorothalonil
Two paper investigate the possible effect of Chlorothalonil on soil micro-organisms:
“Effects of the fungicides benomyl, captan and chlorothalonil on soil microbial activity and nitrogen dynamics in laboratory incubations” by Chen et al. (2001)
Part of the soils were amended with ground alfalfa leaves or ground wheat straw.
fungicides suppressed the peak soil respiration in unamended soil by 30-50%
different effects in the amended soils
effects of the fungicides on soil microbial activity and nitrogen dynamics depended on the quality of the organic materials added to the soil
“Suppression of Chlorothalonil degradation in soil after repeated application” by Motonaga et al. 1998
soil was treated sequentially with 40 mg/kg dry weight of chlorothalonil
resulted in the degradation suppression of chlorothalonil and accumulation of the metabolite 4-hydroxy-2,5,6-trichloroisophthalonitrile (TPN-OH) in soil
TPN-OH pretreatment also suppressed soil respiration and TPN-OH was more persistent in soil than chlorothalonil, indicating that toxicity of residual TPN-OH may suppress the degradation of chlorothalonil in soil

12. Grignon – prelimnary results

13. Grignon – prelimnary results

14. Grignon – preliminary results

15. Grignon – preliminary results

16. Grignon – preliminary results
In 2005 there is no recorded Fungicide application
May 2004 and 2006 fungicide was applied
Is there a missing record of the 2005 event ?

17. Lonzee – climate data example

18. Lonzee – climate data example

19. Lonzee – climate data example

20. Lonzee – climate data example

21. Lonzee – climate data example

22. Data requirements – climatic drivers

23. Data requirements - soil

24. Data requirements - crop

25. Data requirements - management

26. summary
First results are promising – fungicide effect seems to be real
Would be interesting to check other sites
Data availability is crucial for model applications
Climate, soil and management data are the essential basis
Next step are:
uncertainty analysis
Up-scaling for regions and Europe

27. Thank you !

28. Next steps model model model Prior pdf Bayesian calibration
data
Posterior pdf
model

29. Next steps DNDC* model Output distribution Input Monte Carlo –
multi model run
DNDC*
model
Input parameters and variables
Uncertainty site scale
Fertilization (Nitrogen)
+/- 10% each application
Temperature
+/- 1°C
Precipitation
+/- 5%
Global radiation
Clay content
+/- 10%
Initial soil carbon
site
NEE
measured kgC ha-1
best estimate
run kgC ha-1
Mean value of the Monte Carlo simulation kgC ha-1
Oensingen 2004
5851
6735
6675
The discrepancy between simulated mean value from the Monte Carlo runs and the annual value obtained from a single run using the best estimates. suggest that using the best estimate may not lead to the most probable model result.
* DeNitrification-DeComposition model