1. Climate Change and Ireland’s Fiscal Space
Joseph Curtin, IIEA & UCC
25 October 2016
Joint Committee on Communications Climate Action and Environment

2. Five Questions (How fast) Is climate change happening?
Did Ireland get a good deal?
What are the fiscal implications of inaction in light of proposed EU targets?
Is responding to climate change possible given fiscal constraints?
How can we bring all citizens with us?

3. (How fast) Is climate change happening?

4. (How fast) Is climate change happening?

5. 2. Did Ireland get a good deal?

6. 2. Did Ireland get a good deal?
The “Harry Potter” Proposal
Proposed target
with flexibilities:
LULUCF: 2.8MT p/a
ETS: 1.8MT p/a
Current target:
20% reduction
on 2005 by 2020
Proposed target
without flexibilities

7. 3. What are the fiscal implications of inaction?
Projected non-ETS emissions (EPA, 2015)
Recorded
emissions
Target
Proposed
target inc. flexibilities
Proposed target no
flexibilities

8. 3. What are the fiscal implications of inaction?

9. 4. Is responding to climate change possible given fiscal constraints?

10. 4. Is responding to climate change possible given fiscal constraints?

11. 5. How can we bring society with us?

12. 5. How can we bring society with us?
Total RES
Wind
Solar PV
Local Ownership
Financial incentives
Business models/legal forms
Total electricity generation (% 2014)
Germany  
25.8 9
5.0
Over half of total investment in wind and solar has come from local citizen investors.
FiT for wind (1991) and solar PV (2000) supported by soft loans and favorable tax treatment of profits.
Co-operatives for solar PV and some wind projects, limited partnerships. GmbH and Co. KG structure for wind partnerships.
Denmark 53
40.5 .2
Over half of total wind investment from local citizen investors.
Early grants (1979) replaced by FiT and tax refund (1992) and a FiP (2003). A co-ownership mandate and a loan guarantee scheme to address early stage project risk (2008).
For-profit guild structure with co-operative-like decision-making for majority of community-owned projects. Growth in co-ownership models. UK
19.1
9.5 .6
66MW of community renewable electricity capacity installed (2013), though increasingly rapidly up to 2015.
Quota/tender scheme supplemented by grants (2000s) and a FiT (2009). FiT supported by grants and a fund to provide early stage debt finance.
Community benefit societies, charities, co-operatives all used, and a variety of co-ownership models emerging since 2014.
Ontario
28.7
4.4
Less than .1
Increasing citizen and aboriginal group participation since 2011.
Experimental FiT (2006) replaced with more attractive FiT with adder for community ownership (2009) and minimum reserve requirement for community projects (2012). Grants for early stage project costs.
For profit energy co-operatives mostly for solar PV. Joint ventures between aboriginal communities groups and professional developers of various types.

13. Thank you