Risk Assessment Process

Risk Assessment Process

Fit into the Homeland Security Strategic Planning Process?
How Does “Threat” Fit into the Homeland Security Strategic Planning Process? Threat Assessment

State Administrative Agency
Risk Assessment Needs Assessment Threat Assessment Planning Factors CBRNE* Scenarios Two components of Risk…Threat and Vulnerability Desired Capabilities Current Capabilities Vulnerability Assessment Threat Assessment Shortfalls or “Gaps”

Groups or individuals indicating the unlawful use of force or violence
PTE Defined Groups or individuals indicating the unlawful use of force or violence Specifically the utilization of a WMD… To intimidate or coerce… Government or civilian population… Political or social purposes R E F E R E N C E : Jurisdiction Handbook page 11 Threat Assessment Use this definition as a guide to determine existing PTE’s keep focused

Weapons of Mass Destruction (18 USC 2332a)
Defines a weapon of mass destruction as (1) any destructive device as defined in section 921 of this title, [which reads] any explosive, incendiary, or poison gas, bomb, grenade, rocket having a propellant charge of more than four ounces, missile having an explosive or incendiary charge of more than one-quarter ounce, mine or device similar to the above; (2) poison gas; (3) any weapon involving a disease organism; or (4) any weapon that is designed to release radiation or radioactivity at a level dangerous to human life. Threat Assessment Use this definition to maintain focus regarding WMD capability when determining existing PTE’s

Law enforcement personnel/intelligence components
Threat Working Group Law enforcement personnel/intelligence components Consider all appropriate personnel/agencies Additional participants should be limited to subject matter experts who advise on terrorism related issues FBI WMD Coordinator FBI Joint Terrorism Task Force Provide information on motives and capabilities of PTE Threat Assessment Introduce FBI guests Provide forum to discuss next two slides FBI WMD Coord. JTTF

Joint Terrorism Task Force
Combines federal, state and local law enforcement Develop cohesive strategy for identifying, investigating and prosecuting terrorists Intelligence collection and analysis to prevent terrorist acts 66 JTTF’s nationwide Threat Assessment

Located within FBI field offices
FBI WMD Coordinator Located within FBI field offices Assist state and local jurisdictions with identifying WMD threat elements Assist state and local jurisdictions in their establishment of policies and procedures established for responding to WMD terrorist attacks Liaison to the Joint Terrorism Task Force Threat Assessment

Law Enforcement On-line (LEO)
Threat Assessment

Information sharing limited to working group
Safeguards Information sharing limited to working group No recording or forwarding of sensitive information Alternatives recognized but require submission using existing format Threat Assessment

“Snapshot” of current operational activity within jurisdiction
Cautions “Snapshot” of current operational activity within jurisdiction Assessment does not warrant opening an investigation Lone offenders and splinter groups should be considered Different interpretations of threat factors Tendency to “inflate” results Threat Assessment This assessment is merely one portion of the entire assessment No need to inflate results

Threat Assessment Process Assessment completion off-line
R E F E R E N C E : Jurisdiction Handbook page 12 Threat Assessment Process Assessment completion off-line Organize threat working group PTE existence Past violent history Evidence of intentions Evidence of capability Evidence of targeting Jurisdiction threat rating (highest threat) On-line entry of threat rating Threat Assessment All worksheets are completed offline Only Summary data entered into system

Document Threat Working Group
R E F E R E N C E : Jurisdiction Handbook page 14 Document Threat Working Group Jurisdiction population and coordinating agency POC for Threat Working Group Working group agencies FBI/Joint Terrorism Task Force participation Threat Assessment

Threat Assessment Factors Existence:
The presence of a group or individual, operating within the jurisdiction… Threat Assessment Must exist within jurisdiction borders If threat capabilities exist outside of jurisdiction borders, planning factors established later will address response requirements

History: Demonstrated past terrorist activity over time or a recorded, violent criminal history… Threat Assessment

Intentions: Credible advocacy/threats of force or violence, acts, preparations to act; evidencing intent to create a WMD, carry out a plan to release a WMD, or to participate in a WMD incident Threat Assessment

Capability: Credible information that a specific PTE possesses the requisite training, skills, finances, and access to resources needed to develop, produce, or acquire a particular type of WMD in a quantity and/or potency sufficient to produce mass casualties, combined with information substantiating the PTE’s ability to safely store, test, and deliver the same Threat Assessment

Targeting: Credible information indicative of preparations for specific terrorist operations against identifiable targets located within the specified jurisdiction Threat Assessment

Threat Factor Values Threat Assessment Jurisdiction Handbook page 16
R E F E R E N C E : Jurisdiction Handbook page 16 Threat Assessment If no PTE exists, there can be no history, intentions, capability, or targeting

Assess PTE Motivations Political Religious Racial Environmental
Special Interest Threat Assessment If a PTE exists, are there known motivators?

CBRNE Identify WMD Capabilities of PTE Chemical Biological
Radiological Nuclear Explosive Threat Assessment CBRNE If a PTE exists, are there known capabilities?

Jurisdiction Threat Worksheet
Threat Factors Threat Level (1-10) Motivation P=Political R=Religious E=Environmental Ra=Racial S=Special Interest Choose one or more WMD Categories C=Chemical B=Biological R=Radiological N=Nuclear E=Explosive PTE Existence (1) Violent History (1) Intentions (2) WMD Capability (2) Targeting (4) PTE 1 1 2 Ra E PTE 2 PTE 3 Threat Assessment PTE capabilities, if any, will be a key element that feeds planning factors for CBRNE scenarios

Jurisdiction Threat Profile process Number of PTE
Existing PTE capabilities WMD Threat History Jurisdiction Threat Rating R E F E R E N C E : Jurisdiction Handbook page 18 Threat Assessment This will be the only threat assessment data sent forward using the on-line system

PTE assessed in your jurisdiction
Step 1 - Number of PTE PTE assessed in your jurisdiction If no known PTE - a rating of zero is recorded here Threat Assessment Total Number of PTE

Step 2 - Existing PTE capabilities Document PTE capabilities
CBRNE Threat Assessment Chemical Nuclear Biological Explosive Radiological None

Step 3 - WMD Threat History Document threat history
January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2002 Threatened WMD Hazard Total Number of Responses to Suspected WMD Threats and/or Incidents Number of WMD Threats and/or Incidents Determined to be Criminal Chemical Biological Radiological Nuclear Explosive Threat Assessment

Jurisdiction threat rating
Step 4 - Threat Rating Jurisdiction threat rating Highest threat level Threat Assessment Jurisdiction Threat Rating

DISCUSSION Threat Assessment

Basic Vulnerability Assessment
How Does “Vulnerability” Fit Into the Homeland Security Strategic Planning Process? Basic Vulnerability Assessment

State Administrative Agency Basic Vulnerability Assessment
Risk Assessment Needs Assessment Basic Vulnerability Assessment Planning Factors CBRNE* Scenarios Desired Capabilities Current Capabilities Vulnerability Assessment Threat Assessment Shortfalls or “Gaps”

Vulnerability Defined The process of identifying any weaknesses that can be exploited by an adversary to gain access or information Vulnerabilities can result from, but are not limited to: Building characteristics Equipment properties Personal behavior Operational practices Basic Vulnerability Assessment

R E F E R E N C E : Reference Handbook page B-10 Potential Targets Facilities Sites Systems Special events Basic Vulnerability Assessment Mention transportation infrastructure

Vulnerability Working Group Multi-discipline members Include personnel who can provide specific information unique to potential target Basic Vulnerability Assessment Who should be included in the working group? Special events personnel Facilities personnel Transportation personnel Private sector

R E F E R E N C E : Jurisdiction Handbook page 20 4 Step Process Determine Jurisdictional Vulnerability Highest Worksheet Rating Jurisdiction Vulnerability Rating Conduct Individual Target Vulnerability Assessments Vulnerability Assessment Worksheets 7 Assessment Factors Basic Vulnerability Assessment Identify Potential Targets Critical Assets List Top 10% (10 or less – all targets) List and identify those critical assets within the jurisdiction Assess the top 10% The seven vulnerability factors will be discussed next Only summary data will be sent forward using the on-line system Organize the Assessment Team Multidiscipline members Working knowledge of facilities, sites, systems, or special events

Seven Factors Used to Assess Vulnerability Level of visibility Criticality of target site to jurisdiction Impact outside of the jurisdiction PTE access to potential target Potential target threat of hazard Potential target site population capacity Potential for collateral mass casualties Basic Vulnerability Assessment

Step 1 - Assess the awareness of the existence and visibility of the target to the general public Basic Vulnerability Assessment

Step 2 - Assess usefulness of assets to local population, economy, government, etc. Potential targets deemed essential to the continuity of the jurisdiction Basic Vulnerability Assessment

Step 3 - Assess the effect loss will have outside of the jurisdiction Basic Vulnerability Assessment

Step 4 - Assess the availability of the target for ingress and egress by a PTE Basic Vulnerability Assessment

Step 5 - Assess the presence of legal WMD material (CBRNE) in quantities that could be the target of a terrorist attack or would complicate the response to an incident at that facility Basic Vulnerability Assessment

Step 6 - Assess the maximum number of individuals at a site at any given time Basic Vulnerability Assessment

Step 7 - Assess potential collateral mass casualties within a one-mile radius of the target site Basic Vulnerability Assessment Note these are in addition to the casualties expected within the primary facility

Document rating for each target
Summary score Rating key Enter target rating Document rating for each target Summary Score _____Visibility _____Criticality _____Impact Outside Jurisdiction _____PTE Access to Target _____Potential Target Threat _____Potential Site Population _____Potential for Collateral Mass Casualties ____ TOTAL Basic Target Vulnerability Assessment Rating Key 0 - 2 pts. = pts. = 7 3 - 5 pts. = pts. = 8 6 - 8 pts. = pts. = 9 pts. = pts. = 10 pts. = pts. = 11 pts. = pts. = 12 Basic Vulnerability Assessment Target Name or Number: Rating

Basic Vulnerability Assessment Jurisdiction Vulnerability Rating
R E F E R E N C E : Jurisdiction Handbook page 25 Final vulnerability rating Highest vulnerability rating of all site/targets Include raw score Basic Vulnerability Assessment Jurisdiction Vulnerability Rating Basic Vulnerability Summary Raw Score (Highest Target Score) Basic Vulnerability Rating Vulnerability ratings are sent forward using the on-line system

Number of sites located Basic Vulnerability Assessment
Legal Hazards: Adhere to CBRNE definitions CBRNE Material Number of sites located in jurisdiction Chemical (Tier II) Biological (Infectious Only) Radiological Nuclear Explosive Basic Vulnerability Assessment

Critical Infrastructure Assessment IAIP in conjunction with the TSA desire to collect Vulnerability Worksheets Need to compile a national list of valuable assets USSS Key Asset Program contact FOIA considerations Basic Vulnerability Assessment Specialized assessment survey estimates for future ODP needs

R E F E R E N C E : Jurisdiction Handbook page 27 Site-Specific Vulnerability Assessment Survey for ODP Specialized assessment to harden target Estimates future assessments required By jurisdiction Basic Vulnerability Assessment Specialized assessment survey estimates for future ODP needs

DISCUSSION Basic Vulnerability Assessment

Risk Assessment Process

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