1. Where are we today in renewable heating and cooling and what challenges remain?
Tobias Fleiter
Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research

2. POLICY CONFERENCE

3. Background: 2 main studies
EC tender study accomplished in 2016 (DG ENER)
First full end-use energy balance for EU 28 (+3)
Reference year 2012
Mapping and analyses of the current and future heating/cooling fuel deployment
Ongoing Horizon project
Update for the year 2015
Inclusion of technologies

4. Total final energy in 2015 (EU28)
H&C about 50% of FED
High importance space and process heating
Total final energy 2015: ~12,600 TWh

5. Sector comparison H&C FED in 2015 (EU28)
End-uses by sector:
Industry: >80% for process heat
Residential: >75% for space heating
Tertiary: highest share of cooling compared to other sectors (~10%)

6. Residential sector: FED H&C in 2015 by energy carrier (EU28)
Types of energy carriers:
Fossil: 61%
Renewables: 17%
El+DH: 22%

7. Residential sector: FED H&C in 2015 by country
Huge diversity across countries!
Max RES-share ~50%

8. Share of Renewables in H/C over time (Source: Eurostat SHARES project)
Top 5 countries
RES H&C share increasing in most countries
EU28:
2006: 10%
2015: 17%

9. Residential sector: FED for H&C by single/multi family houses in 2015 (EU28)
SFH twice as important as multi-family houses

10. Residential sector: Share of SFH in total space heating energy demand (2015)
Importance of SFH varies heavily by member state!

11. Key messages However: The local situation is always different 
H&C is very important with ~50% of EU28 FED
Residential sector still dominated by fossil fuels (EU28, 2015):
Fossil: 61% (natural gas 43%)
Renewables: 17%
El+DH: 22%
SFH consume twice as much energy as MFH do (EU28)
Huge heterogeneity among countries
However: The local situation is always different 

12. Thank you very much for your attention!
Contact
Tobias Fleiter
Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research
Breslauer Str. 48
76139 Karlsruhe, Germany
Thank you very much for your attention!
EC tender study „Mapping and analyses of the current and future heating/cooling fuel deployment “
Download reports and data sheets:
Heat Roadmap Europe IV (Horizon 2020, ongoing)
Download Brochure: Report to follow soon

13. Join #EUSEW17 www.eusew.eu ‘EU Sustainable Energy Week’
@euenergyweek & #EUSEW17
‘EU Sustainable Energy Week’

14. One minute on barriers...
Examplary use case: choice of heating system at the time of renewal:
Use case
Target group
Barriers
Policy recommendations
Choice of H/C system at the time of necessary (or before) renewal (residential/ non- residential buildings)
Private persons (i.e. owners)
Single-family homes:
Bounded rationality: replace with the same system, no planning / evaluation of alternatives (lock-in effects)
Mandatory building energy certificates that show-case options at the latest 15 years after the latest retrofit of heating system
Introduction of mandatory energy labels for H/C technologies
Competition with other modernization measures (e.g. new bathroom)
Implement tax incentives for green savings
Housing companies
Split incentives (landlord-tenant dilemma)
Allow to put-through only 50 % of energy costs to tenants (e.g. tenancy law)
Allow to put-through add-on costs for RES heating systems (e.g. tenancy law)
Promote energy service/performance contract schemes
Public bodies
The procurement routines are still not up to date regarding RES H/C
Promote energy service/performance contract schemes and adjust public tendering rules accordingly
Understanding barriers requires being very specific:
What is the „use case“?
Who makes the decision?
What are other actors and how do they affect the decision?
Which RES technology? For which application?
Which country? ..

15. Residential sector: H&C FED by end-use in 2015
Space heating dominant in nearly all countries
Cooling only has low shares in southern countries
Hot water is relatively similar in all countries