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POLARIS INFRASTRUCTURE INC. TSX : PIF
APRIL 2017
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1 IMPORTANT NOTICE This Presentation includes general background information with respect Polaris Infrastructure Inc. (“Polaris”) and does not purport to be complete. It has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not to be considered a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities and should not be treated as investment advice. The information contained in this Presentation is confidential and the property of Polaris. It is made available strictly for the purposes referred to above. This Presentation must not be disclosed, copied, published, reproduced or distributed in whole or in part at any time without the prior written consent of Polaris and, by accepting this Presentation, you agree not to do so. You also agree to return any written copy of this Presentation to Polaris at the request of Polaris.
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Polaris infrastructure overview
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3 SNAPSHOT Own and operate San Jacinto Geothermal power plant in Nicaragua PPA with national grid – contractual price per MWh, with annual escalator, to 2029 Recapitalized in May 2015 “Fixed” balance sheet New Management and Board Cash flow positive; initiated dividend in Q2 2016
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CAPITAL MARKETS SNAPSHOT
4 CAPITAL MARKETS SNAPSHOT Symbol: PIF Price* (C$): C$14.15 Shares Outstanding (FD): 15.7 mm Market Cap. (C$): 222 mm Market Cap (US$): 167 mm Cash On Hand – Dec 31 (US$): 45.8 mm Debt – Dec 31 (US$): 181.1 mm Enterprise Value (US$): 302 mm Run Rate EBITDA (US$): ~ 50 mm EV/EBITDA: ~ 6.0x Quarterly Dividend (US$): $0.12 Only 15.7 million shares outstanding Trading at approx. 6.5x EBITDA IPP comps at 10-12x [confirm examples] Every 1x of EBITDA valuation we “get credit for” adds C$4.20 to share price (assuming no change in EBITDA) * as of March 31, 2017
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DRILLING PROGRAM RESULTS
5 DRILLING PROGRAM RESULTS
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Improvement in financial metrics
6 Improvement in financial metrics Annualized “Run-rate” Results 2 new wells drilled * 2016 reflects annualized results once 2 new wells brought online
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2016 operating rESULTS 7 USD million Q3 Per Share Q4 Revenue 14.3 15.7
EBITDA 12.0 13.3 Less: Interest & Bank Fees 3.4 3.8 “Sustaining Capex” 1.3 Discretionary CF 7.3 US$0.46/ C$0.61 8.2 US$0.52/ C$0.71 Principal Repayment 2.1 Free Cash Flow* 5.2 US$0.33/ C$0.43 6.1 US$0.39/ C$0.53 *As defined by management, on a long term “average” basis.
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8 Dividend growth Ability to raise dividend based on both growth in cash flow and/or payout ratio Business operates and reports in USD Pays dividend in USD Initial dividend in Q – raised twice Ability to grow dividend: Increase in cash flow, and/or Increase payout ratio * Calculated using management's estimated sustaining capital expenditure
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San JACINTO GEOTHERMAL PLANt
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10 PLANT OVERVIEW 72 MW capacity turbines – both online since January 2013 PPA in US$ for up to 72MW net, to 2029 US$118/MWh in 2016 with 3% per annum price escalator for 7 years; 1.5% per annum thereafter (to 2029) 10 production wells with productive capacity of approximately: 500 tph of steam 1,500-1,700 tph of hot brine Production wells 500m to 2,500m in depth Current steam can result in power capacity of approx MW (net of ~5 MW internal consumption) 6 Injection wells re-inject the hot brine into the reservoir to create a “closed loop” – renewable energy in literal sense Plant re-certified for CO2 credits - ~250,000 tons per year available
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Historical Key Parameters
11 Historical Key Parameters Year Gross Hourly Production (1) Net Hourly Production (1) Average Steam Mass Planned Downtime (%) Turbine Availability (%) 2012 35.7 33.2 276 2.6 99.3 2013 53.3 48.4 416 1.8 99.8 2014 54.1 49.1 434 5.9 2015 54.6 49.5 428 3.1 2016 57.5 52.4 456 2.0 99.1 Net of Planned / Unplanned Downtime
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GROWING PLANT-LEVEL EBITDA
12 GROWING PLANT-LEVEL EBITDA * Plant-level EBITDA defined as Revenue less Direct Costs
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2015/2016 san jacinto drilling program
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15 2015/2016 Drilling program Drilled 3 new wells – target 2 new production wells ($23.4MM) SJ 6-3 SJ 9-4 SJ 14-1 Mechanical “workover” of 4 existing injection wells ($8.2MM) Selected infrastructure investments ($6.4 million): Roads Drilling pads New separation station Well connection piping etc
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Future growth options
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Future growth options 17 San Jacinto geothermal project
Drilling further production and injection wells Plant output optimization projects Binary Unit Develop Western Sector Acquisitions / Project Development Casita – San Cristobal Geothermal Field Feasibility and Development Project Carbon Credits
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Further production wells
18 Further production wells Drilling rig is on-site, available Have 2-3 well sites identified Will validate location(s) through planned geological studies in Q1-Q2 2017 Likely to drill shallow wells to target “steam cap” Steam cap is a key development in the lifecycle of the San Jacinto resource Estimate cost of approximately $7.5 million / well Capital cost is funded by internal cash Possible expansion into Western Sector of San Jacinto concession
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19 Binary unit Separate generating unit – generates power from hot geothermal fluids (brine) before reinjecting Viewed as a low risk means of generating additional power No exploration risk Low technical risk Competitive nature of OEM market will result in attractive pricing Additional generation will bring us close to 72MW (net) threshold under PPA Will require amendments to PPA; currently under negotiation
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20 Binary unit economics Project budget (preliminary) is $30 million, including drilling of a new injection well Injection well is required to enable flexibility and reduce “reservoir risk” Capital cost is funded by internal cash Estimate additional 8 – 10 MW Equates to approx. $6 – 8 million additional cash flow Approx. 4-5 year payback
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San jacinto target production
21 San jacinto target production Annualized “Run-rate” Results Assuming Binary Unit Assuming 1 new production well * reflects annualized results once new production brought online
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Acquisitions / Development
22 Acquisitions / Development Grid in Central America is small/fragmented and has a significant number of renewable projects Numerous – MW projects in the region Large power companies and infrastructure funds not active Owners are small companies and / or HNW individuals Implication is that: Good targets for acquisitions without significant competition Much higher IRR projects available to develop (i.e % IRR vs % in North America)
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NICARAGUA OVERVIEW 23 Daniel Ortega President – elected in 2007
Ortega won national election in November 2016 – 5 more years of stability Highest growth rate and safest country in central America “Left Leaning” politically but open economically Polaris project is a showcase project for the country One of the largest foreign investments in country to date Renewable energy World bank and other global development banks as lenders
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RESEARCH ANALYST COVERAGE
24 RESEARCH ANALYST COVERAGE * as of March 31, 2017
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25 SAN JACINTO PHOTOS
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