1. Inter-American Politics: Today’s Dilemmas and Present Conjuncture
A.W. Pereira 15/5/17

2. Questions
1 What are the most important issues in inter-American politics?
2 How have inter-American politics shifted in the first part of the 21st century?
3 What might the Trump administration mean for inter-American politics?

3. Map of Brazil in the Western Hemisphere.

4. What are the most important issues in inter-American politics?

5. Some specific answers (examples)
The implosion of Chavismo in Venezuela
A failed state in Haiti
The peace process in Colombia
The “thaw” in US-Cuban relations
Reputational damage to Brazilian businesses in the wake of Lava Jato
Latin American immigration to the US
Trump’s isolationism and protectionism

6. US Trade with Central and South America (2016) in US$ (millions)
Exports
Imports
Balance
136,614.6
107,814.1
28,800.5
Source: US Census Bureau, Foreign Trade, at 14/05/17.

7. Brazilian Trade with the US, 2013-2016 (US$, millions)
Year
Exports
Imports
Balance
2013
24,653
36,019
-11,365
2014
27,028
35,018
-7,991
2015
24,080
26,471
-2,391
2016
23,156
23,803
-646
Source: MRE/DPR/DIC, Brasil-Estados Unidos, Balanca Comercial, Janeiro 2017, p. 3, on 14 May, 2017.

8. Brazilian Trade with the US, 2016
EXPORTS
Manufactured goods, 61.3%
Semi-manufactured goods, 16.9%
Basic goods, 13.7%
Special transactions, 8.0%
IMPORTS
Manufactured goods, 93.8%
Semi-manufactured goods, 1.5%
Basic goods, 4.7%
Source: same as previous slide, p. 4

9. How have inter-American politics changed in the first part of the 21st century?

10. Some possible answers
The emergence of left and centre-left governments (now declining?) in Latin America
Steady growth on the back of the commodity boom, and a decline in poverty (and some inequality) in Latin America
The relative decline in importance of the US
The rise of China as a major trade partner
The creation of new multilateral fora (Unasur, SADC, Alba, Celac)
Trump

11. The Trump Administration
Rex Tillerson, US Secretary of State, 2017-present.

13. Trump’s appointment to the NSC: Western Hemisphere Affairs
Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Western Hemisphere Affairs: Craig Deare
Craig Deare since 2010 has worked as the Dean of Administration for the College of International Security Affairs, where he researches security issues in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Prior to his time at the College of International Security Affairs, Deare served for two decades in the U.S. Army, and he was deputy commander of the joint counterintelligence operations element in Honduras.

14. And then…
In a talk at the Wilson Center, Deare criticized the Trump administration’s policies towards Latin America, especially the poor US relations with Mexico. He was upset about Trump’s remarks about Mexico, and Trump’s phone call with Pres. Pena Nieto. (He also marveled at how attractive Ivanka Trump was.)
Trump fired Deare on 18 February, 2017, and he was escorted out of his office in the Executive Office Building.
There has been no replacement of Deare so far.

16. Francisco Palmieri
Acting Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs, US Department of State.
Trump has not appointed a new Assistant Secretary.
He has also not appointed a new Ambassador to Brazil. The current Ambassador, P. Michael McKinley, is an Obama appointee.
US Consul in Sao Paulo Richard Zuniga is also an Obama appointee.

17. US Military Commands U.S. Africa Command U.S. Central Command
U.S. European Command
U.S. Northern Command
U.S. Pacific Command
U.S. Southern Command

18. Questions about the reading – Hirst and Pereira
For Hirst and Pereira, why were US-Brazilian relations between 2002 and 2014 “unsettled”?
What do they mean that Brazil-US relations are characterized by “constrained discrepancy”?
How did the loss of regional convergence between the US and Brazil occur?
Why do the authors think it is important for Brazil to enhance its relationship with the US?

19. Mares and Trinkunas
In a June 2015 press conference, President Obama said that Brazil was a global, not a regional power. Was he right?
In which issue areas does Brazil exert most influence?
Does Brazil merely want a seat at the table of global governance or does it want to “change the menu” – reform the institutions of global order?

20. Mares and Trinkunas (2)
In the views of the authors, why have attempts by Brazil to gain global influence repeatedly stalled?
Why do the authors’ think that Brazil’s soft power approach is more difficult to achieve than a hard power option?
Is Brazil’s approach really purely based on soft power?

21. Stuenkel
How does Western-centrism distort analyses of the global order, in Stuenkel’s view?
Is Brazil “non-Western” (nao-ocidental)? If so, in what sense?
What, for Stuenkel, is “asymmetric bipolarity”?
Could the emergence of new powers improve global order?

22. Stuenkel (2)
Why did the BRICS countries oppose Resolution 1973 permitting intervention in Libya in 2011?
Was 2015 really the start of a third phase for the BRICS, marked by a process of institutionalization and the launch of the New Development Bank?
What do established powers mean when they want emerging powers to be “responsible stakeholders”?

23. Break time
Enough questions. Time for a break!